Oakland (2-1) at Denver (2-1)
When: Sunday, October 1st 2017
Where: Sports Authority Field, Denver, CO
Time: 4:25 ET | TV: CBS
Opening Odds: Denver PK/46.5
Bitter AFC West rivals meet in Week 4 as the Oakland Raiders and Denver Broncos will both look to rebound from their first losses of the season on Sunday afternoon. Without star quarterback Derek Carr, the Raiders were crushed 24-6 at Denver in the 2016 season finale, denying them the AFC West title. Carr is healthy for this matchup but is coming off one of his worst performances against Washington last week in which he completed 19-of-31 passes for just 118 yards and a touchdown while throwing his first two interceptions of the season. While Oakland dropped a 27-10 decision to the Redskins, Denver also suffered its first loss of the season, falling 26-16 at Buffalo in its first road game of 2017. The Broncos hope for better production from the running game including C.J. Anderson, who gained only 36 yards on eight carries against the Bills – with 32 coming on one run. Quarterback Trevor Siemian, who has been sacked nine times in the first three games, will have to contend with Oakland defensive end Khalil Mack – the reigning Defensive Player of the Year. Carr will have to watch his back also, going up against Denver linebacker Von Miller, who league’s sack leader (76.5) since the start of the 2011 season.
Mack leads the NFL with 28 sacks since the beginning of the 2015 season (0.5 better than Miller), including one in each of his last two games. Mack has recorded seven of his 32 career sacks against Denver, including five on December 13th, 2015 to tie the franchise single-game record set by Howie Long. Wideout Michael Crabtree (13 receptions, 3 TDs) has been limited in practice this week due to a chest injury suffered in the loss to Washington while fellow wide receiver Amari Cooper (knee) was a full participant on Thursday. The Raiders, who will have played three of their first four on the road, get the next three at home (Ravens, Chargers, Chiefs).
Despite last week’s sub-par effort, Anderson still ranks fifth in the league with 235 rushing yards and is averaging 4.4 per carry. He has recorded 310 scrimmage yards and four touchdowns in his last three games against Oakland, while Jamaal Charles has 962 and 11 TDs in 12 career meetings with the Raiders. The former Chiefs running back needs 134 scrimmage yards to become the 11th active player to record 10,000 in his career. Charles gave the best performance of his first season with the team last week, rushing nine times for 56 yards and a touchdown. Denver leads the league in rushing defense (59.7 yards) and is one of only two teams (Minnesota) yet to allow a rushing touchdown this season. Denver will go into their bye week after this and host the Giants on October 15th (SNF).
Both teams struggled last week and I expect them both to look better this week. The road team has been pretty good against the spread in this series and the Raiders, outside of last week, are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 away from home. Look for Carr to have a big game and the Raiders to come away with a tight victory.
Pick: Raiders +2.5
- Raiders are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up loss.
- Raiders are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss.
- Raiders are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- Raiders are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.
- Raiders are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following a straight up loss of more than 14 points.
- Raiders are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games after accumulating less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
- Raiders are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 vs. AFC.
- Raiders are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 road games.
- Raiders are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games on grass.
- Raiders are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games in Week 4.
- Broncos are 8-3-2 ATS in their last 13 home games.
- Broncos are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games in Week 4.
- Broncos are 16-7 ATS in their last 23 games following a straight up loss.
- Broncos are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games in October.
- Broncos are 13-6-1 ATS in their last 20 games following a ATS loss.
- Broncos are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 vs. AFC West.
- Broncos are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. AFC.
- Under is 5-1 in Raiders last 6 road games.
- Over is 5-1 in Raiders last 6 games in October.
- Under is 4-1 in Raiders last 5 vs. AFC West.
- Over is 7-2 in Raiders last 9 games after accumulating less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
- Over is 19-7-1 in Raiders last 27 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Over is 8-3 in Raiders last 11 games following a straight up loss of more than 14 points.
- Over is 5-2-1 in Raiders last 8 games after accumulating less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
- Under is 5-2 in Raiders last 7 games on grass.
- Over is 5-2 in Raiders last 7 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 16-7 in Raiders last 23 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- Under is 7-1 in Broncos last 8 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Under is 6-1 in Broncos last 7 games following a ATS loss.
- Over is 5-1 in Broncos last 6 vs. AFC West.
- Over is 4-1 in Broncos last 5 games overall.
- Over is 4-1 in Broncos last 5 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Under is 4-1 in Broncos last 5 games in October.
- Over is 46-22-3 in Broncos last 71 games following a straight up loss.
- Favorite is 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 meetings.
- Road team is 12-5-1 ATS in their last 18 meetings.
- Raiders are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Denver.
- Raiders are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 meetings.