MLB Betting: Who’ll Hit The Most Home Runs in the 2011 Regular Season?

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July 13th, 2011

By Richard Gardner, Bodog Sportsbook Manager

With the 2011 MLB Home Run Derby in the books – congrats to New York Yankees 2B Robinson Cano for taking home the honors – now’s as good a time as any to look ahead to the second half of the regular season and project who’ll win the home run crown. Currently, Bdg’s online sportsbook has odds up; here are some of the favorites.

Jose Bautista, Toronto
2/5

For the second consecutive season, “Joey Bats” has taken the majors by storm by jacking a remarkable 31 HR prior to the All-Star break. Bautista is easily the best power hitter in the bigs, leading not only in HR but by a wide margin in slugging percentage (.702) – and he’s done this while striking out a mere 54 times in 299 at-bats. Bautista’s such a heavy favorite because he routinely makes contact and seems to have a real flair for knocking balls out of the Rogers Center – not exactly the most hitter-friendly park. Barring injury or a catastrophic slump (the likes of which Bautista hasn’t experienced in years), he should win the HR crown. But he might not win it comfortably, because of…

Mark Teixeira, New York
11/2

Tex has stayed within striking distance of Bautista with 25 dingers of his own, even if he has had 25 more plate appearances. While his batting average (.244) has dipped to unprecedented lows and this hasn’t been a banner campaign, Teixeira has done well to knock in runs and provide power in the middle of one of baseball’s deepest lineups. And that’s where he might have an edge on Bautista down the stretch – whereas the Blue Jays lineup only features one or two other dangerous bats, the Yankees lineup is loaded with them: Cano, Curtis Granderson, Alex Rodriguez and the surprising Eduardo Nunez, to name a few.

Lance Berkman, St. Louis
10/1

The first National League entrant on the list, Berkman leads all senior circuit sluggers with 24 jacks, two more than Milwaukee’s Price Fielder and Los Angeles’ Matt Kemp. Berkman has been a revelation for the Cardinals, providing lineup protection for Albert Pujols. And much like Teixeira, Berkman has some outstanding hitters around him: Matt Holliday, Tony Cruz, Jon Jay, Ryan Theriot and Yadier Molina are all batting above .280, giving Berkman plenty of opportunities to drive in runs.

Others…

Fielder, the 2007 home run champ (he hit 50 that season) is currently listed at 16/1…One guy to keep an eye on might be Chicago’s Paul Konerko, who has been tearing the cover off the ball this year. Konerko has 104 hits (.319 batting average) to go along with his 22 dingers – Bdg currently has Konerko at 16/1 as well…Albert Pujols looks to be out of the race with just 18 HR to his credit, but a hot second half could get him back in it – if you think he’s got a shot, take a flyer on him at 50/1…

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