Houston (4-6) at Baltimore (5-5)
When: Monday, November 27th 2017
Where: M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, MD
Time: 8:30 ET | TV: ESPN
Opening Odds: Baltimore -7/38
The Houston Texans, who lost their star rookie quarterback in Week 8, are still fighting for postseason berth and they’ll take on the team directly in front of them when they visit the Baltimore Ravens on Monday Night Football. Baltimore moved back to the .500 mark last week with a 23-0 win at Green Bay, becoming the first team since 2003 to record three shutouts in a season. The Ravens forced five turnovers and registered six sacks in the dominant performance at Lambeau Field. Baltimore has won nine straight prime-time games – the longest active streak in the NFL – and is 11-1 under the lights since head coach John Harbaugh took over. Texans quarterback Tom Savage, benched after Week 1 before replacing an injured Deshaun Watson prior to Week 9, earned his first victory of the season in last week’s 31-21 win over Arizona to keep his team alive in the playoff race. Houston is still three games behind AFC South-leading Jacksonville, so a wild card berth is their only real chance. The Ravens have won the last four meetings against the Texans at M&T Bank Stadium.
Savage is coming off his best game of the season, throwing for 230 yards and two touchdowns against a struggling Arizona team, but he also has committed six turnovers in the past two games. Rookie D’Onta Foreman rushed for a season-high 65 yards and two TDs before suffering a season-ending torn left Achilles last week. Lamar Miller, who has scored three times over the past four games and leads the team with 604 yards on the ground, will get the bulk of the work. Wideout DeAndre Hopkins has a team-leading 62 receptions and an NFL-best nine touchdowns through 10 games. The Houston defense is tough against the run (ranked 7th), but is vulnerable through the air, ranking 26th at 252.8 yards per game allowed.
Baltimore managed just 219 yards of total offense in shutting out Green Bay and features the league’s worst passing attack with an average of 165.2 yards per game. Quarterback Joe Flacco has thrown more interceptions (11) than touchdown passes (nine), and his leading receivers are running back Javorius Allen and tight end Ben Watson. Running back Alex Collins went over 100 yards in a 40-0 rout of Miami on October 26th, but has been held to 49 yards or fewer in three of the past four games. The Ravens are allowing 17.1 points per game and have posted a league-high 16 interceptions, but are 26th against the run.
Savage doesn’t have a prayer against the Ravens defense, who are very opportunistic and Savage is very giving. The only chance Houston has in this game is to come up big on the defensive side, and I think they will. The Baltimore offense is just as bad as Houston’s right now. I expect an ugly low-scoring affair.
Pick: Texans +7
- Texans are 21-7-2 ATS in their last 30 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- Texans are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games on fieldturf.
- Texans are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games following a straight up win.
- Texans are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games in Week 12.
- Texans are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games in November.
- Texans are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Texans are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 Monday games.
- Ravens are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games in Week 12.
- Ravens are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Ravens are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 Monday games.
- Ravens are 5-1-2 ATS in their last 8 games in November.
- Ravens are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Ravens are 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 vs. AFC.
- Ravens are 6-13-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
- Ravens are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up win of more than 14 points.
- Over is 4-0 in Texans last 4 games following a straight up win.
- Under is 4-0 in Texans last 4 games in Week 12.
- Over is 9-1 in Texans last 10 games following a ATS win.
- Over is 6-1 in Texans last 7 games on fieldturf.
- Over is 4-1 in Texans last 5 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Over is 4-1 in Texans last 5 vs. AFC.
- Over is 4-1 in Texans last 5 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
- Over is 6-2 in Texans last 8 games overall.
- Over is 5-1 in Ravens last 6 games overall.
- Under is 5-1 in Ravens last 6 games in November.
- Over is 4-1 in Ravens last 5 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
- Over is 4-1 in Ravens last 5 vs. AFC.
- Over is 6-2 in Ravens last 8 games following a straight up win.
- Under is 8-3 in Ravens last 11 games after accumulating less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
- Under is 5-2 in Ravens last 7 games in Week 12.
- Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Baltimore.
- Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.
- Home team is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.