Rays vs Yankees Betting Odds, Trends, & Free Pick [4/13/17]

Tampa Bay (5-4) at NY Yankees (4-4)
When: Thursday, April 13th 2017
Where: Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY
Time: 7:05 ET | TV: MLB Network

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The Yankees had little success opening the season on the road, but they look for a three-game sweep against the Tampa Bay Rays in their first home series of the season. The Yankees rallied from a three-run deficit to post an 8-4 victory on Wednesday as young outfielder Aaron Judge belted a home run for the third consecutive game and third baseman Chase Headley continued his hot hitting. Headley has multiple hits in five of eight games this season after notching a pair of singles and scoring twice in Wednesday’s victory to improve his batting average to .393. The Rays committed four errors in the first two games of the series and have been outscored 16-5 while going 1-for-11 with runners in scoring position. Corey Dickerson knocked in one of the runs for Tampa Bay and has hit safely in seven of his eight starts, pushing his overall batting average to .303. Tampa Bay infielder Rickie Weeks slammed his first homer of the season in the first inning, but left Wednesday’s game with a shoulder bruise when he and New York outfielder Brett Gardner collided at first base. Gardner suffered a bruised jaw along with a strained neck and will likely sit out Thursday. Tampa Bay 3B Evan Longoria scored twice Tuesday and leads all active players with 101 RBIs versus the Yankees.

Pitchers: Rays – Matt Andriese (0-0, 9.00 ERA) | Yankees – Luis Severino (0-0, 7.20)

Matt Andriese will look to give Tampa Bay their first road victory of the young season while at the same time, try to hang on to the No. 5 starter role after allowing five runs (four earned) and seven hits against Toronto last Friday. Andriese went 2-6 with a 6.03 ERA after the All-Star break last season and may end up in the bullpen if he cannot show some progress soon. Judge (3-for-4, homer) and Headley (3-for-9, two homers) have hit Andriese, who was 1-1 with a 6.00 ERA versus New York last year.

Luis Severino was not his best the first time around as he looks to improve on last year’s numbers after an impressive rookie season. In 2015, he was 5-3 with a 2.89 ERA in 11 starts as a rookie. Severino allowed four runs and six hits with six strikeouts and a walk over five innings in a 6-5 loss at Baltimore last Friday. Dickerson is 2-for-2 with a homer and Steven Souza Jr. is 3-for-6 versus Severino, who is 3-1 with a 3.47 ERA in seven appearances (three starts) against Tampa Bay.

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I’m not very confident in either pitcher, but I trust Severino a lot more than Andriese right now. The Yankees should be able to knock him out early and cruise to a victory.

Pick: Yankees -130

W/L TRENDS

Tampa Bay
  • Rays are 6-2 in their last 8 during game 3 of a series.
  • Rays are 6-2 in their last 8 Thursday games.
  • Rays are 5-2 in their last 7 games vs. a right-handed starter.
  • Rays are 7-3 in their last 10 overall.
  • Rays are 17-35 in their last 52 road games.
  • Rays are 20-42 in their last 62 games on grass.
  • Rays are 15-39 in their last 54 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
  • Rays are 4-12 in their last 16 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
  • Rays are 1-4 in their last 5 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
  • Rays are 1-7 in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
  • Rays are 9-2 in Andriese’s last 11 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
  • Rays are 4-9 in Andriese’s last 13 starts.
NY Yankees
  • Yankees are 7-2 in their last 9 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
  • Yankees are 21-8 in their last 29 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.
  • Yankees are 5-2 in their last 7 home games.
  • Yankees are 5-2 in their last 7 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
  • Yankees are 2-6 in their last 8 during game 3 of a series.
  • Yankees are 2-6 in their last 8 games vs. a right-handed starter.
  • Yankees are 2-5 in Severino’s last 7 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
  • Yankees are 2-6 in Severino’s last 8 starts vs. American League East.
  • Yankees are 2-7 in Severino’s last 9 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Yankees are 1-4 in Severino’s last 5 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Yankees are 1-5 in Severino’s last 6 home starts.
  • Yankees are 2-11 in Severino’s last 13 starts.
  • Yankees are 1-11 in Severino’s last 12 starts on grass.
  • Yankees are 0-4 in Severino’s last 4 starts with 5 days of rest.

OU TRENDS

Tampa Bay
  • Under is 4-0-2 in Rays last 6 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
  • Under is 5-0-1 in Rays last 6 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
  • Under is 6-0-1 in Rays last 7 during game 3 of a series.
  • Under is 5-1-1 in Rays last 7 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
  • Under is 7-3 in Rays last 10 games vs. a right-handed starter.
NY Yankees
  • Over is 4-0 in Yankees last 4 overall.
  • Over is 4-0 in Yankees last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
  • Over is 4-0 in Yankees last 4 on grass.
  • Over is 4-0 in Yankees last 4 vs. American League East.
  • Under is 5-1 in Yankees last 6 during game 3 of a series.
  • Under is 9-2-3 in Yankees last 14 Thursday games.
  • Over is 4-1 in Yankees last 5 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
  • Over is 11-4 in Yankees last 15 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.
  • Over is 4-0 in Severino’s last 4 starts overall.
  • Over is 4-0 in Severino’s last 4 starts vs. American League East.
  • Over is 4-1 in Severino’s last 5 starts on grass.
  • Over is 4-1 in Severino’s last 5 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Over is 4-1-1 in Severino’s last 6 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
  • Over is 4-1 in Severino’s last 5 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Over is 4-1-1 in Severino’s last 6 home starts.

HEAD TO HEAD

  • Over is 7-2 in the last 9 meetings in New York.
  • Over is 11-5 in the last 16 meetings.
  • Rays are 1-4 in the last 5 meetings in New York.

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