North Carolina vs Duke Preview, Odds, & Free Pick – [3/3/18]

North Carolina (22-8, 11-6) at Duke (24-6, 12-5)
When: Saturday, March 3rd 2018
Where: Cameron Indoor Stadium, Durham, NC
Time: 8:15 ET | TV: ESPN
Opening Odds: Duke -7.5

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The greatest rivalry in College Basketball gets ready for another round on Saturday night when the Duke Blue Devils host the North Carolina Tar Heels in the regular season finale for both teams. The winner of this Tobacco Road affair will get the No. 2 seed in next week’s ACC Tournament, but the Tar Heels could drop as far as sixth with a setback at Cameron Indoor Stadium. Duke’s five-game winning streak came to an end with a 64-63 loss at Virginia Tech on Monday, while the Tar Heels’ six-game streak ended the next night in a 91-88 buzzer-beating setback to Miami (Fla.). The Tar Heels knocked off the Blue Devils 82-78 on February 8th in Chapel Hill, committing just two turnovers and had a 21-point outing from Joel Berry, II in the 246th meeting between the two teams. Duke held North Carolina to just 39% shooting in that contest and followed that effort up with five straight wins while allowing 55.6 points per game before Virginia Tech forced 18 turnovers to help it rally from a six-point halftime deficit for the victory. The Blue Devils have won six of the last nine matchups, but the Tar Heels still lead the all-time series 136-110.

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Berry matched his career high with 31 points in the loss to Miami and took over the team lead at 18.2 per game while shooting 36.7% from behind the arc. Senior Theo Pinson, who leads the team in assists (4.8), has been a nice surprise of late, contributing 17.5 points over the last four games. Junior forward Luke Maye (17.9 points, team-high 10.2 rebounds) has gone the other way, averaging 12.5 and 8.5 respectively in four games since scoring a career-high 33 with 17 rebounds against North Carolina State. Maye had 15 points and eight rebounds in the first matchup with Duke, while guard Cameron Johnson pulled down a season-high 13 rebounds – one of his two double-doubles this season.

Duke is 4-2-1 ATS over the last 7 meetings.

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Freshman phenom Marvin Bagley III has connected on 13-of-18 from the field and averaged 15.5 points in two games since returning from a four-game absence with a knee injury, and is scoring 20.7 to go along with 11.1 rebounds per contest overall. Senior guard Grayson Allen gets possibly his last crack at North Carolina, and has scored at least 20 in four of the last six games. Freshman backcourt mate Gary Trent Jr. is just 9-for-36 from the field over his past four games. Freshman forward Wendell Carter Jr., who averages 14.3 points, scored a season-low five against Virginia Tech. Freshman guard Trevon Duval tops the team in assists (5.3), but has made just 6-of-22 from the field the last three games.


I don’t see North Carolina repeating it’s performance the first time around when they only turned the ball over twice. Duke’s defense gave them problems and now the Blue Devils will have the rocking faithful behind them. I like Duke a lot in this one.

Pick: Duke -7.5

  • Tar Heels are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Saturday games.
  • Tar Heels are 11-3-2 ATS in their last 16 games following a ATS loss.
  • Tar Heels are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
  • Tar Heels are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 vs. Atlantic Coast.
  • Tar Heels are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
  • Tar Heels are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 road games.
  • Tar Heels are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
  • Blue Devils are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games.
  • Blue Devils are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up loss.
  • Blue Devils are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
  • Blue Devils are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. Atlantic Coast.
  • Blue Devils are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss.
  • Blue Devils are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
  • Blue Devils are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
  • Blue Devils are 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 Saturday games.
  • Blue Devils are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.
  • Over is 4-0 in Tar Heels last 4 road games.
  • Over is 4-0 in Tar Heels last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
  • Over is 4-0 in Tar Heels last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
  • Over is 5-0 in Tar Heels last 5 Saturday games.
  • Over is 4-0 in Tar Heels last 4 games following a straight up loss.
  • Over is 4-0 in Tar Heels last 4 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
  • Over is 6-1 in Tar Heels last 7 games after allowing more than 90 points in their previous game.
  • Over is 13-3-1 in Tar Heels last 17 games following a ATS loss.
  • Over is 4-1 in Tar Heels last 5 overall.
  • Over is 4-1 in Tar Heels last 5 vs. Atlantic Coast.
  • Under is 5-0 in Blue Devils last 5 overall.
  • Under is 6-0 in Blue Devils last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
  • Under is 5-0 in Blue Devils last 5 vs. Atlantic Coast.
  • Under is 6-1 in Blue Devils last 7 home games.
  • Under is 4-1 in Blue Devils last 5 Saturday games.
  • Over is 4-1 in Blue Devils last 5 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.
  • Tar Heels are 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings in Duke.
  • Favorite is 3-1-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
  • Road team is 18-7-1 ATS in the last 26 meetings.

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