For the most part on the playing field, this year’s NFL playoffs have gone chalk with a No. 3 vs. No. 1 matchup in the AFC preceding the top two seeds in the NFC facing off against one another for a spot in Super Bowl LII from this conference.
Betting on the playoffs has been a whole other story with the underdogs covering against the spread in seven of the first eight postseason games. The total stayed UNDER in three of the four games in the Wild Card Round before it went OVER in three of last weekend’s four Divisional Round matchups.
Looking at the final two games on Sunday’s slate leading up to Super Bowl LII on Sunday, Feb. 4, there are a number of interesting betting trends that could give an edge when it comes to cashing in a pair of winners at your favorite online sportsbook.
Sunday, Jan. 21
3:05 p.m. (CBS) Jacksonville Jaguars at New England Patriots (-9.5, 46.5)
Jacksonville pulled off the biggest upset of the postseason with last Sunday’s 45-42 victory against No. 2 seed Pittsburgh as a seven-point road underdog. This raised the Jaguars’ record on the year to 4-2 ATS when closing as underdogs. The total went OVER the closing 40.5-point line on their scoring alone after it stayed way UNDER 40 points in a 10-3 victory against Buffalo as 8.5-point home favorites it the Wild Card Round.
Some of the more recent betting trends for Jacksonville include a 12-5 record ATS in their last 17 conference games with the total staying UNDER in eight of its last 10 games against the AFC.
The Patriots’ slower than expected 2-2 SU start while going 1-3 ATS is just a distant memory following an 11-1 SU run in their last 12 regular season games while going a highly profitable 10-2 ATS. New England kept things rolling against Tennessee last Saturday night in its first postseason game with a 35-14 victory that covered the closing 13.5-point line as a home favorite. The total went OVER 48 points after it had stayed UNDER in nine of their last 12 games in the regular season.
New England has covered in its last five playoff games at home and it its last four postseason games overall. The total has gone OVER in its last seven home games in the playoffs.
Head-to-head in this matchup, the home team has covered in six of the last eight meetings and the total has stayed UNDER or ended as a PUSH in four of the last six games between the two.
6:40 p.m. (FOX) Minnesota Vikings (-3, 38.5) at Philadelphia Eagles
Minnesota was cruising toward victory in last Sunday’s Divisional Round tilt against New Orleans with a 17-0 lead at the half, but it needed a miracle 61-yard touchdown catch and run with no time on the clock to seal a 29-24 win as a 5.5-point home favorite. This was the third time in the Vikings’ last five games they failed to cover and the total went OVER 46.5-points in that improbable win after staying UNDER in five of their previous seven outings. Minnesota is now 8-5 ATS this season when closing as a favorite.
The Vikings have failed to cover in five of their last seven road playoff games and the total has stayed UNDER or ended as a PUSH in eight of their last 10 postseason contests.
Philadelphia closed as a 2.5-point home underdog in last Saturday’s Divisional Round matchup against Atlanta with Nick Foles under center for an injured Carson Wentz and it overcame the odds with a 15-10 victory aided by a huge defensive stop on four and goal with time running out. The Eagles had failed to cover in four of their last five regular season games and the total has stayed UNDER in six of their last eight games including Saturday’s win.
The Eagles have posted a profitable 11-4 record ATS in their last 15 conference games and the total has stayed UNDER or closed as a PUSH in 10 of their last 11 home games in the playoffs.
Philadelphia has a 6-2 edge ATS in the last eight meetings in this conference clash and it has gone 7-1 both SU and ATS in its last eight home games against the Vikings. The total has stayed UNDER in five of the last seven meetings overall.
courtesy of America’s Bookie