Nationals vs Cardinals Preview, Odds, Trends, & Free Pick [7/1/17]

Washington (47-33) at St Louis (38-41)
When: Saturday, July 1st 2017
Where: Busch Stadium, St Louis, MO
Time: 7:15 ET | TV: FOX
Opening Odds: St Louis -115/9

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The St. Louis Cardinals are climbing up the NL Central standings and will look for their second straight series win over a top team when they host the Washington Nationals on Saturday night. Game time at Busch Stadium is set for 7:15 ET and will be broadcast nationally on FOX in most regions. St. Louis improved to 38-41 with an 8-1 win in Friday’s series opener and has won five of its last six games, including a series win over the Arizona Diamondbacks on Thursday. Veteran catcher Yadier Molina is leading the charge offensively with a 15-game hitting streak. The Cardinals, who are just 3.5 games out of first in the Central, have allowed four or fewer runs in each of the wins and surrendered just six hits on Friday to the Nationals, who lead the National League in runs scored. Washington has issues at the top of their order with Trea Turner (fractured wrist) on the disabled list along with Adam Eaton (knee), leaving the team searching for its third primary leadoff hitter of the season. Brian Goodwin got the first crack at Turner’s leadoff spot on Friday and went 1-for-4. Washington still maintains an 8.5 game lead over second-place Atlanta in the NL East.

Pitchers: Nationals – Gio Gonzalez (7-2, 2.87 ERA) | Cardinals – Michael Wacha (4-3, 4.50)

All-Star candidate Gio Gonzalez will look to keep it rolling on Saturday after allowing three or fewer runs in 14 of his 16 starts and each of the last seven, including a solid six-inning performance against the Chicago Cubs on Monday. Gonzalez allowed one run and two hits against Chicago, but did issue five walks – the fourth time this season he walked at least four. Gonzalez faced St. Louis early in the season on April 11th and allowed two runs – one earned – and six hits without walking a batter in seven innings to earn a win.

Michael Wacha rebounded from a couple of poor performances with a win over Cincinnati on Monday, allowing one run and five hits over six innings. He didn’t record an out in the fifth inning in either of his two previous starts and allowed a total of nine runs – six earned – and 16 hits in eight innings. Wacha is 2-2 with a 1.57 ERA in four career starts against Washington.

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Gonzalez has had a very good season, but it’s tough to get run support when you keep losing your leadoff hitter. I actually think it will be tough for either team to generate some offense tonight, so I’m going to take the under in this one.

Pick: Under 9 +100

W/L TRENDS

Washington
  • Nationals are 5-0 in their last 5 during game 2 of a series.
  • Nationals are 4-0 in their last 4 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
  • Nationals are 8-3 in their last 11 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
  • Nationals are 10-4 in their last 14 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
  • Nationals are 12-5 in their last 17 road games.
  • Nationals are 4-0 in Gonzalez’s last 4 road starts.
  • Nationals are 4-1 in Gonzalez’s last 5 road starts vs. a team with a losing record.
  • Nationals are 12-4 in Gonzalez’s last 16 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
  • Nationals are 5-2 in Gonzalez’s last 7 starts during game 2 of a series.
  • Nationals are 2-10 in Gonzalez’s last 12 starts vs. National League Central.
  • Nationals are 1-5 in Gonzalez’s last 6 Saturday starts.
St. Louis
  • Cardinals are 12-1 in their last 13 vs. National League East.
  • Cardinals are 4-1 in their last 5 overall.
  • Cardinals are 4-1 in their last 5 games on grass.
  • Cardinals are 3-7 in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Cardinals are 2-5 in their last 7 home games.
  • Cardinals are 4-0 in Wacha’s last 4 starts vs. National League East.
  • Cardinals are 4-0 in Wacha’s last 4 Saturday starts.
  • Cardinals are 6-1 in Wacha’s last 7 starts during game 2 of a series.
  • Cardinals are 6-2 in Wacha’s last 8 starts with 4 days of rest.
  • Cardinals are 2-5 in Wacha’s last 7 home starts.
  • Cardinals are 0-5 in Wacha’s last 5 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
  • Cardinals are 0-4 in Wacha’s last 4 starts vs. a team with a winning record.

OU TRENDS

Washington
  • Over is 9-2 in Nationals last 11 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
  • Under is 4-1 in Nationals last 5 overall.
  • Under is 4-1 in Nationals last 5 on grass.
  • Under is 4-1 in Nationals last 5 vs. National League Central.
  • Over is 8-2 in Nationals last 10 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
  • Over is 4-1 in Nationals last 5 during game 2 of a series.
  • Over is 10-3 in Nationals last 13 vs. a team with a losing record.
  • Over is 5-2 in Nationals last 7 road games.
  • Over is 13-6 in Nationals last 19 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
  • Over is 4-0 in Gonzalez’s last 4 road starts vs. a team with a losing record.
  • Over is 8-1 in Gonzalez’s last 9 starts with 4 days of rest.
  • Over is 6-1 in Gonzalez’s last 7 road starts.
  • Over is 10-3-1 in Gonzalez’s last 14 starts vs. National League Central.
  • Over is 19-7 in Gonzalez’s last 26 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
  • Over is 8-3 in Gonzalez’s last 11 Saturday starts.
St. Louis
  • Over is 6-1 in Cardinals last 7 home games.
  • Over is 5-1 in Cardinals last 6 overall.
  • Over is 5-1 in Cardinals last 6 on grass.
  • Over is 5-1 in Cardinals last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Over is 12-3-2 in Cardinals last 17 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.
  • Over is 4-1 in Cardinals last 5 during game 2 of a series.
  • Under is 7-3 in Cardinals last 10 Saturday games.
  • Under is 7-3 in Cardinals last 10 games vs. a left-handed starter.
  • Over is 20-9 in Cardinals last 29 vs. National League East.
  • Over is 6-1-1 in Wacha’s last 8 starts during game 2 of a series.
  • Over is 6-1 in Wacha’s last 7 home starts.
  • Over is 5-1 in Wacha’s last 6 Saturday starts.
  • Over is 5-1 in Wacha’s last 6 starts vs. National League East.
  • Over is 21-5 in Wacha’s last 26 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Over is 12-3-1 in Wacha’s last 16 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
  • Over is 8-2 in Wacha’s last 10 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Over is 37-15-1 in Wacha’s last 53 starts on grass.
  • Over is 37-15-1 in Wacha’s last 53 starts overall.

HEAD TO HEAD

  • Over is 3-0-3 in the last 6 meetings in St. Louis.
  • Over is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings.
  • Nationals are 8-3 in the last 11 meetings.
  • Nationals are 7-21 in the last 28 meetings in St. Louis.

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