Michigan State vs Georgia Spread, Trends, and Free Pick – 2012 Outback Bowl ]]> include($base_url . “/includes/header.htm”); ?>
The point spread for this year’s Outback Bowl between the Michigan State Spartans and Georgia Bulldogs opened up at -3.5 in favor of the Bulldogs at Bovada Sportsbook on 12/12/11. As of Wednesday afternoon (12/28), the line has not moved. Bovada hasn’t released a total, but most books have it set at 50. Right now, 53% of the betting public is on Michigan State and 65% are on the under. To help you better decide who to bet, take a look at these trends for tonight.
Spartans are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS win.
Spartans are 6-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Bulldogs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games on grass.
Bulldogs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Bowl games.
Over is 4-1 in Spartans last 5 games overall.
Over is 8-3 in Spartans last 11 non-conference games.
Over is 6-0 in Bulldogs last 6 games following a S.U. loss.
Under is 4-0 in Bulldogs last 4 bowl games as a favorite.
My Prediction: We know both of these teams can score. The key to the game will be which defense steps up. Neither defense stepped up in their respective Conference Championship Game loses. Before those games, Georgia seems like the team with the more solid defense. Since their 0-2 start, the Bulldogs have only allowed teams to score 20 or more three times, while the Spartans have surrendered 20+ in 5 of their last 7 games. I like Georgia to win a 7-10 point game, but buy the half-point just to be safe.
Georgia -3 -125