Miami FL vs Maryland Spread, Trends, and Free Pick – September 5th, 2011 ]]> include($base_url . “/includes/header.htm”); ?>
The point spread for Monday Night’s ESPN game between the Miami Hurricanes and Maryland Terrapins opened up at -4 in favor of Miami at Bodog Sportsbook. Several Miami suspensions later, and the line has now flipped to Maryland as 4-point favorites. The total opened at 48 and has since moved down to 46.5 as of Sunday night. Right now, 60% of the betting public is on Maryland and 67% are on the over. To help you better decide who to bet, take a look at these trends for tonight.
Hurricanes are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog.
Hurricanes are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games as a road underdog of 3.5-10.0.
Terrapins are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 conference games.
Terrapins are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite.
Under is 5-0-1 in Hurricanes last 6 conference games.
Under is 6-1-1 in Hurricanes last 8 games overall.
Over is 5-1 in Terrapins last 6 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0.
Over is 4-1-1 in Terrapins last 6 games on grass.
My Prediction: This is a much different game than it looked like 2 months ago. Miami is in the middle of a huge scandal. I’ve even heard talks of ‘death penalty’, though I doubt the NCAA would go that far. The suspension list is long and it includes QB Jacory Harris, WR’s Travis Benjamin and Aldarius Johnson, top returning LB Sean Spence, and their two top returning sack leaders Olivier Vernon and Adewale Ojomo. We can see why the line moved from Miami -4 to +4. Randy Edsall is in his first year at Maryland after coaching UCONN to four straight Bowl games and putting Storrs, Connecticut on the football map. Edsall has 14 returning starters back including QB Danny O’Brien who had a 22/8 TD/INT ratio last year. He won’t have his two top receivers from last year, but they do have some good young wideouts. This is a scary game to predict with all that’s going on, but I’m going to lay a small bet on the Terps.