Memphis (6-4) at SMU (5-5)
When: Friday, November 16th 2018
Where: Gerald J. Ford Stadium,
Dallas, Texas
Time: 9:00 ET | TV: ESPN2
Opening Odds: Memphis -8/75
The SMU Mustangs are just one win away from becoming Bowl-eligible, but they have loftier goals heading into the final few weeks of the regular season. The Mustangs control their own destiny when it comes to winning the American Athletic Conference West Division and a trip to the conference title game against one of the powerhouses in the East. SMU is tied with Houston and Tulane at 4-2 in conference play, but own victories over both teams this season and have won three of their last four overall. They will also try and break a four-game losing streak to Memphis Tigers on Friday night, who have outscored the Mustangs 228-62 in that span. Junior running back Darrell Henderson has recorded 100-yard rushing performances 12 times in his past 15 games for Memphis and leads the FBS with a hefty 9.2 yards per carry. He needs 184 yards to break the American’s single-season record of 1,629 held by Tulsa’s James Flanders in 2016. SMU junior quarterback Ben Hicks has guided the team back to win column since regaining his starting job four games ago but the Mustang defense had trouble slowing Connecticut’s rushing attack last week, allowing a gaudy 365 yards. SMU has allowed 10 non-offensive touchdowns this season (four interceptions returned, three fumbles returned, two kickoff returns, one punt return). Memphis is 15-1 straight-up in regular-season weeknight games since 2014.
Henderson leads the AAC with 1,446 rushing yards and is tied with 17 rushing touchdowns, while also being tied for the FBS lead with 20 total scores. Junior quarterback Brady White is having a fine season with 2,512 yards and 22 touchdowns to just three interceptions and his favorite target is sophomore Damonte Coxie (58 catches, 949 yards, seven TDs). John “Pop” Williams, who has 28 catches for 275 yards and two scores, leads the league in punt return average (12.9 yards) after a 72-yard return for a touchdown last week in the win against Tulsa.
Hicks has heated up since his return, throwing 10 touchdowns in his last four games and has totaled 1,919 yards and 16 touchdown passes for the season with just four interceptions. SMU has a trio of running backs who are contributing with Ke’Mon Freeman, Xavier Jones, and Braeden West combining for 1,110 rushing yards and 13 scores – including six rushing touchdowns in last week’s win at UConn. Leading receiver James Proche (70 catches, 882 yards, nine touchdowns), boasts three 100-yard games this season, while sophomore Reggie Roberson Jr. (42 catches, 648 yards, six touchdowns) has at least one touchdown catch in four straight games.
SMU is playing well, but I’m not sure how they are going to slow down this Memphis offense. The Mustangs defense is horrible against the run and Memphis is 5th in the country in rushing offense. But, with that being said, nine points is a lot to lay on the road and the Tigers aren’t the cream of the AAC crop. I’ll take SMU and the points here.
Pick: SMU +9
Betting Trends:
- Tigers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 conference games.
- Tigers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 Friday games.
- Tigers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
- Tigers are 21-8 ATS in their last 29 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
- Tigers are 34-16-2 ATS in their last 52 games in November.
- Tigers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
- Tigers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games.
- Mustangs are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
- Mustangs are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games on fieldturf.
- Mustangs are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game.
- Mustangs are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Mustangs are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS loss.
- Mustangs are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 Friday games.
- Mustangs are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win.
- Mustangs are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Mustangs are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games in November.
- Mustangs are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
- Over is 4-0 in Tigers last 4 games in November.
- Over is 9-1 in Tigers last 10 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
- Over is 7-1 in Tigers last 8 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
- Over is 20-7 in Tigers last 27 games following a ATS win.
- Over is 16-6 in Tigers last 22 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.
- Over is 7-3 in Tigers last 10 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
- Over is 13-6 in Tigers last 19 games following a straight up win.
- Over is 17-8 in Tigers last 25 games overall.
- Over is 5-0 in Mustangs last 5 games in November.
- Over is 5-1 in Mustangs last 6 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Under is 4-1 in Mustangs last 5 games following a ATS loss.
- Under is 6-2 in Mustangs last 8 games following a straight up win.
- Under is 5-2 in Mustangs last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Tigers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.
- Favorite is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.
