Detroit (2-1-1) at Green Bay (4-1)
When: Monday, October 14th, 2019
Where: Lambeau Field,
Green Bay, WI
Time: 8:15 ET | TV: ESPN
Opening Odds: Green Bay -4.5/43.5
The NFC North race this season was supposed to come down to Green Bay, Minnesota, and Chicago, with Detroit pulling up the rear. Well, the Lions have other ideas and are a legitimate threat with their 2-1-1 start that could easily be 4-0. The Lions take to the field Monday night in their only prime time game of the season when they visit the Packers at Lambeau Field. Green Bay has already played on a Thursday night in Week 1, again in Week 4, and now Monday night with one more scheduled in Week 16 against the Vikings. Detroit is coming off a bye after coming up just short at home against the previously unbeaten Kansas City Chiefs, while the Packers had their most impressive outing of the season in a 34-24 win at Dallas last Sunday. The Lions have actually swept the Packers each of the last two seasons including a 31-0 win at Lambeau Field in Week 17 last year. Green Bay was totally disinterested in that contest after already being eliminated from the playoffs and trailed 21-0 in the second quarter and lost Aaron Rodgers to a concussion. Matthew Stafford threw for 266 yards and two scores for the Lions, who also got a TD pass on a trick play from kicker Matt Prater. The Lions have covered each of the last four and the total has gone over in six of the previous seven.
Detroit should have won Week 1 in Arizona but blew a 24-6 fourth-quarter lead in an eventual tie and were up 30-27 on the Chiefs late in the game but allowed a crucial fourth-down conversion that led to the game-winning touchdown run with 20 seconds left. Every Lions game has been decided by four points or fewer. The Detroit defense has allowed 24 points or more in three of their four games and rank 27th in total yards (405.5) and 29th against the pass (280.8). The offense has been carrying this team so far and running back Kerryon Johnson recorded 157 scrimmage yards in Detroit’s loss to Kansas City. Kenny Golladay is the leading receiver with 19 catches and four scores and has two touchdowns in as many career games versus Green Bay. Fellow wideout Marvin Jones Jr. has found the end zone seven times in six meetings versus the Packers. Detroit is 1-4 ATS in its past five vs. the NFC North.
Green Bay has a slight edge in an NFC North that has all four teams over the .500 mark and every division matchup this season is pivotal. Rodgers didn’t throw a touchdown in the win over Dallas last week, but running back Aaron Jones had a big game with 107 yards on the ground with a career-high four touchdowns and seven catches for 75 yards. Two-time Pro Bowl wide receiver Davante Adams has been ruled out for this contest after sustaining a turf toe injury in a 34-27 loss to Philadelphia on Sept. 26. Fellow wideout Marquez Valdes-Scantling was limited to season lows in catches (one) and receiving yards (18) last week while nursing hamstring and calf injuries. The Packers’ defense intercepted Dak Prescott three times, but rookie safety Darnell Savage injured his ankle and is out for the next few weeks. This is the 27th straight season that Green Bay will play on Monday Night Football and have won six of their past eight home MNF games.
This Detroit team is no longer intimidated by the Green Bay Packers. The Lions had lost 24 in a row at Green Bay, but have now won three of the last four meetings and they have a better team this season. The Adams injury really hurts this Packers offense and I expect a tight contest from start to finish. Take the points.
Pick: Lions +4 (More Week 6 Free Picks)
Lions are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a bye week.
Lions are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Lions are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Lions are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games.
Lions are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
Lions are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Lions are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games on grass.
Lions are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 Monday games.
Lions are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Lions are 16-33-2 ATS in their last 51 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.
Lions are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. NFC North.
Lions are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
Packers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
Packers are 21-10-1 ATS in their last 32 games in October.
Packers are 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a ATS win.
Packers are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 vs. NFC North.
Packers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 Monday games.
Packers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Packers are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
Packers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games in Week 6.
Under is 5-1 in Lions last 6 games following a bye week.
Under is 5-1 in Lions last 6 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Under is 5-1 in Lions last 6 games following a straight up loss.
Over is 5-1 in Lions last 6 games in Week 6.
Under is 4-1 in Lions last 5 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.
Over is 4-1 in Lions last 5 Monday games.
Under is 4-1 in Lions last 5 vs. NFC North.
Over is 4-1 in Lions last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Under is 4-1 in Lions last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 7-2 in Lions last 9 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Under is 6-2 in Lions last 8 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Under is 6-2 in Lions last 8 vs. NFC.
Under is 8-3 in Lions last 11 games overall.
Over is 5-2 in Lions last 7 games on grass.
Under is 5-0 in Packers last 5 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Under is 5-0 in Packers last 5 vs. NFC North.
Over is 4-1 in Packers last 5 Monday games.
Under is 4-1 in Packers last 5 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
Over is 20-7 in Packers last 27 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Under is 8-3-1 in Packers last 12 games in Week 6.
Under is 7-3 in Packers last 10 games on grass.
Over is 24-11 in Packers last 35 vs. NFC.
Over is 17-8 in Packers last 25 games following a straight up win.
Lions are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.
Over is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings.
Favorite is 19-7 ATS in their last 26 meetings.
