Cleveland (21-21) at Houston (28-17)
When: Friday, May 18th 2018
Where: Minute Maid Park, Houston, TX
Time: 8:10 ET | TV: SportsTime Ohio, AT&T SportsNet Southwest
Opening Odds: Houston -145/8.5
Two teams that will surely be involved in this year’s postseason, will battle for the first time in 2018 as the defending World Series champion Houston Astros host the Cleveland Indians on Friday to begin a three-game weekend series that will culminate on ESPN’s Sunday Night Baseball. This matchup will also pit two undefeated pitchers in Cleveland’s Mike Clevinger against Charlie Morton of the Astros. Morton has won seven straight decisions dating to 2017 – eight in a row during the regular season – and is part of the best pitching staff in Baseball. Houston, which has allowed 13 runs while going 7-2 in its last nine games, owns the three lowest ERAs in the American League in Justin Verlander (1.05), Gerrit Cole (1.75) and Morton (2.03). The Indians split their last six games against Central rivals Kansas City and Detroit since top reliever Andrew Miller returned from the disabled list. Cleveland’s bullpen has been dominant in their rise the last couple of seasons, but is off to a terrible start in 2018, boasting a MLB-worst 5.68 ERA. Indians outfielder Michael Brantley (.338) is 12-for-31 with three of his six home runs and 11 of his 28 RBIs during a seven-game hitting streak, while Houston’s Carlos Correa is hitting just .180 in May. Cleveland has won 24 of the 34 meetings since the Astros joined the AL in 2013, including five of six last season.
Pitchers: Indians – Mike Clevinger (3-0, 2.70 ERA) | Astros – Charlie Morton (5-0, 2.03)
Because the bullpen has been so bad for Cleveland, starters seem to be pitching longer into games, and Clevinger is no exception. He’s coming off back-to-back games of 115 and 116 pitches thrown respectively, but has been solid. Clevinger allowed two runs and eight hits while striking out five over 7.2 innings of a 6-2 victory over Kansas City on Saturday. He set career-highs of 10 strikeouts and 116 pitches in his previous start – a no-decision across 7.1 innings of Cleveland’s 7-4 loss against the Yankees in New York. Clevinger is 1-1 with a 1.04 ERA in two starts versus the Astros.
Morton struck out a career-high 14 while allowing one run and four hits in seven innings of a 6-1 victory over Texas on Saturday. Off to a 5-0 start in 2018, Morton was a personal-best 14-7 last season and has allowed two or fewer runs in six of his eight starts this season. Jason Kipnis and Edwin Encarnacion have gone deep in a combined nine at-bats versus Morton, who is 0-2 with a 5.56 ERA in two starts versus Cleveland.
Cleveland is really starting to hit the ball after a slow start, while Houston is relying on their pitching recently. Houston may have won the World Series last year, but the Indians dominated in the season series (5-1). I’ll take Cleveland in the opener as a nice underdog play.
Pick: Indians +155
BETTING TRENDS:
- Indians are 9-3 in their last 12 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
- Indians are 37-14 in their last 51 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Indians are 49-20 in their last 69 Friday games.
- Indians are 36-15 in their last 51 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Indians are 39-17 in their last 56 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Indians are 52-24 in their last 76 games following a win.
- Indians are 39-18 in their last 57 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Indians are 55-27 in their last 82 games on grass.
- Indians are 65-32 in their last 97 overall.
- Indians are 2-6 in their last 8 road games.
- Indians are 2-7 in their last 9 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Indians are 1-4 in their last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Indians are 0-5 in their last 5 during game 1 of a series.
- Indians are 5-0 in Clevinger’s last 5 starts with 5 days of rest.
- Indians are 11-1 in Clevinger’s last 12 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Indians are 10-1 in Clevinger’s last 11 starts when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Indians are 5-1 in Clevinger’s last 6 road starts.
- Indians are 5-1 in Clevinger’s last 6 starts when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Indians are 11-4 in Clevinger’s last 15 starts.
- Indians are 10-4 in Clevinger’s last 14 starts on grass.
- Indians are 7-3 in Clevinger’s last 10 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
- Astros are 4-1 in their last 5 overall.
- Astros are 4-1 in their last 5 games on grass.
- Astros are 6-2 in their last 8 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Astros are 20-7 in their last 27 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
- Astros are 17-6 in their last 23 Friday games.
- Astros are 37-14 in their last 51 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Astros are 38-15 in their last 53 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Astros are 5-2 in their last 7 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Astros are 31-13 in their last 44 home games.
- Astros are 15-7 in their last 22 during game 1 of a series.
- Astros are 29-14 in their last 43 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
- Astros are 4-0 in Morton’s last 4 starts during game 1 of a series.
- Astros are 6-1 in Morton’s last 7 starts with 5 days of rest.
- Astros are 4-1 in Morton’s last 5 Friday starts.
- Astros are 8-3 in Morton’s last 11 home starts.
- Astros are 8-3 in Morton’s last 11 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Astros are 9-4 in Morton’s last 13 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 6-0 in Indians last 6 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 7-0 in Indians last 7 vs. American League West.
- Over is 10-1 in Indians last 11 games following a win.
- Under is 8-1-1 in Indians last 10 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 7-1 in Indians last 8 during game 1 of a series.
- Under is 4-1 in Indians last 5 games following an off day.
- Over is 4-1 in Indians last 5 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 4-1 in Indians last 5 Friday games.
- Over is 8-2-1 in Indians last 11 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Over is 8-2-1 in Indians last 11 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 16-5-1 in Indians last 22 overall.
- Over is 16-5-1 in Indians last 22 on grass.
- Over is 9-3 in Indians last 12 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 4-1 in Clevinger’s last 5 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 4-1 in Clevinger’s last 5 starts vs. American League West.
- Under is 6-2 in Clevinger’s last 8 starts when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 3-1-1 in Clevinger’s last 5 starts when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 14-5 in Clevinger’s last 19 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 5-2 in Clevinger’s last 7 starts with 5 days of rest.
- Under is 23-11-1 in Clevinger’s last 35 starts overall.
- Under is 6-0-2 in Astros last 8 games following an off day.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Astros last 4 vs. American League Central.
- Under is 8-1-2 in Astros last 11 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 5-1-2 in Astros last 8 Friday games.
- Under is 4-1 in Astros last 5 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
- Over is 3-1-1 in Astros last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
- Under is 22-8-3 in Astros last 33 games following a win.
- Under is 22-8-1 in Astros last 31 during game 1 of a series.
- Under is 18-7-1 in Astros last 26 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Under is 5-2-1 in Astros last 8 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 25-11-3 in Astros last 39 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 33-15-3 in Astros last 51 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Under is 34-16-3 in Astros last 53 home games.
- Under is 33-16-4 in Astros last 53 overall.
- Under is 33-16-4 in Astros last 53 on grass.
- Under is 5-1 in Morton’s last 6 starts with 5 days of rest.
- Under is 5-1 in Morton’s last 6 starts during game 1 of a series.
- Under is 8-2 in Morton’s last 10 home starts.
- Under is 11-4 in Morton’s last 15 starts on grass.
- Under is 11-4 in Morton’s last 15 starts overall.
- Under is 8-3 in Morton’s last 11 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
- Under is 5-2 in Morton’s last 7 starts when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 12-3-4 in the last 19 meetings in Houston.
- Indians are 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Houston.
- Under is 19-6-2 in the last 27 meetings.
- Indians are 24-9 in the last 33 meetings.
