Cubs vs Nationals Preview, Odds, Trends, & Free Pick – [6/28/17]

Chicago Cubs (39-37) at Washington (45-31)
When: Wednesday, June 28th 2017
Where: Nationals Park, Washington, DC
Time: 7:05 ET | TV: MLB Network
Opening Odds: Washington -170/8

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The Chicago Cubs will look to get the bats going again when they play the third game of a four-game set with the Washington Nationals on Wednesday night. One night after Max Scherzer and four relievers combined on a two-hitter, the Cubs face another Washington ace when Stephen Strasburg takes the mound. Chicago’s lineup was full of rookies and reserves in Tuesday’s 6-1 defeat, as shortstop Addison Russell (shoulder) was limited to pinch-hit duties and starters Ben Zobrist and Jason Heyward remain on the disabled list. Washington tied a franchise mark with seven stolen bases while evening the series, with Trea Turner matching his own franchise record with four of them. After being held to two runs in a loss to Cincinnati on Sunday and being shut out for eight innings Monday, Washington scored four runs in the ninth inning of the opener and kept it going on Tuesday. Nats’ second baseman Daniel Murphy is 15-for-43 during an 11-game hitting streak, while the Cubs’ Javier Baez (eight games) and Ian Happ (seven games) each had their career-best hitting streaks snapped Tuesday.. The Cubs have scored one run or fewer 14 times this season after doing so only 19 times all of last season.

Pitchers: Cubs – John Lackey (5-8, 4.74 ERA) | Nationals – Stephen Strasburg (8-2, 3.57)

John Lackey will make his 16th trip to the mound and has posted quality starts in his last two outings, matching his total from his previous 11 starts. Lackey suffered the loss at Miami on Friday despite allowing two runs (one earned) and three hits over six solid innings. Lackey is 2-0 with a 3.49 ERA in six starts against the Nationals and has limited Bryce Harper to 0-for-9.

Strasburg has been roughed-up lately, failing to record a quality start in his last three outings after a streak of five straight quality starts prior to that. His ERA in the last three starts is a monstrous 7.63 ERA. Strasburg was hit for five runs and eight hits over five innings in a no-decision against Cincinnati on Friday. He is 0-1 with a 1.95 ERA in four starts against the Cubs.

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The Cubs lineup may be depleted, but it’s still pretty good. Strasburg has not been very good lately and he’s on pace to surrender the most homers since his 2014 season. I’m not laying $170 on him against the Cubbies.

Pick: Cubs +154

W/L TRENDS

Chi. Cubs
  • Cubs are 4-0 in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
  • Cubs are 13-6 in their last 19 vs. National League East.
  • Cubs are 7-15 in their last 22 vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Cubs are 6-13 in their last 19 road games.
  • Cubs are 3-11 in their last 14 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
  • Cubs are 1-5 in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Cubs are 0-4 in their last 4 Wednesday games.
  • Cubs are 5-1 in Lackey’s last 6 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
  • Cubs are 4-1 in Lackey’s last 5 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Cubs are 4-1 in Lackey’s last 5 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Cubs are 5-2 in Lackey’s last 7 Wednesday starts.
  • Cubs are 2-5 in Lackey’s last 7 starts vs. National League East.
  • Cubs are 2-5 in Lackey’s last 7 starts.
  • Cubs are 2-5 in Lackey’s last 7 starts on grass.
  • Cubs are 1-4 in Lackey’s last 5 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
  • Cubs are 0-4 in Lackey’s last 4 starts with 4 days of rest.
Washington
  • Nationals are 4-1 in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Nationals are 4-1 in their last 5 games after losing the first 2 games of a series.
  • Nationals are 5-2 in their last 7 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
  • Nationals are 95-45 in their last 140 Wednesday games.
  • Nationals are 3-7 in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
  • Nationals are 3-7 in their last 10 home games.
  • Nationals are 1-5 in their last 6 during game 3 of a series.
  • Nationals are 5-0 in Strasburg’s last 5 starts vs. National League Central.
  • Nationals are 4-1 in Strasburg’s last 5 starts during game 3 of a series.
  • Nationals are 41-11 in Strasburgs last 52 starts.
  • Nationals are 41-11 in Strasburg’s last 52 starts on grass.
  • Nationals are 11-3 in Strasburg’s last 14 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Nationals are 6-2 in Strasburg’s last 8 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Nationals are 6-2 in Strasburg’s last 8 Wednesday starts.
  • Nationals are 36-15 in Strasburg’s last 51 starts with 4 days of rest.
  • Nationals are 38-17 in Strasburg’s last 55 home starts.

OU TRENDS

Chi. Cubs
  • Under is 4-0 in Cubs last 4 overall.
  • Under is 4-0 in Cubs last 4 road games.
  • Under is 4-0 in Cubs last 4 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
  • Under is 4-0 in Cubs last 4 on grass.
  • Under is 4-0 in Cubs last 4 vs. National League East.
  • Under is 5-1 in Cubs last 6 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
  • Under is 5-1 in Cubs last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Under is 4-1 in Cubs last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Under is 4-1 in Cubs last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
  • Under is 4-1 in Cubs last 5 during game 3 of a series.
  • Under is 19-7 in Cubs last 26 games vs. a right-handed starter.
  • Over is 7-3 in Cubs last 10 Wednesday games.
  • Under is 5-0 in Lackey’s last 5 road starts.
  • Over is 5-1 in Lackey’s last 6 Wednesday starts.
  • Under is 5-1-1 in Lackey’s last 7 starts on grass.
  • Over is 5-1 in Lackey’s last 6 starts during game 3 of a series.
  • Under is 5-1-1 in Lackey’s last 7 starts overall.
  • Under is 4-1 in Lackey’s last 5 starts with 4 days of rest.
  • Under is 4-1 in Lackey’s last 5 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
Washington
  • Under is 5-0 in Nationals last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Over is 8-1 in Nationals last 9 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
  • Under is 5-1 in Nationals last 6 Wednesday games.
  • Under is 4-1 in Nationals last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Over is 10-4 in Nationals last 14 overall.
  • Over is 5-2 in Nationals last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
  • Over is 5-2 in Nationals last 7 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
  • Over is 10-4 in Nationals last 14 on grass.
  • Over is 5-2 in Nationals last 7 home games.
  • Under is 7-3-1 in Nationals last 11 during game 3 of a series.
  • Over is 7-1 in Strasburg’s last 8 starts vs. National League Central.
  • Over is 4-1 in Strasburg’s last 5 starts on grass.
  • Over is 4-1 in Strasburg’s last 5 starts overall.
  • Over is 15-5-1 in Strasburg’s last 21 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Over is 14-5-1 in Strasburg’s last 20 starts with 4 days of rest.
  • Over is 13-5-1 in Strasburg’s last 19 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Over is 5-2 in Strasburg’s last 7 Wednesday starts.
  • Over is 12-5 in Strasburg’s last 17 starts during game 3 of a series.
  • Over is 35-15-4 in Strasburg’s last 54 home starts.

HEAD TO HEAD

  • Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.
  • Cubs are 8-2 in the last 10 meetings.

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