Brewers vs Astros Preview & Free Pick | Prediction [6/11/19]

Milwaukee (38-28) at Houston (45-22)
When: Tuesday, June 11th, 2019
Where: Minute Maid Park,
Houston, Texas
Time: 8:10 ET | TV: FS Wisconsin,
AT&T SportsNet Southwest

Opening Odds: Houston -144/9


The Houston Astros slow start to the 2019 season is a thing of the past, as they are running away with the American League West and now set their sites on the National League for the next couple of days when they host the Milwaukee Brewers in a two-game interleague series. Houston started out 2-5, but now own the best mark after 67 games in franchise history at 45-22 by going 27-8 in its last 35 games. All of this is being done without injured stars Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, and George Springer, as the young call-ups have picked up the slack. Houston, who has won five straight series and is 10-0-1 in its last 11 series, got a two-run homer from Yordan Alvarez in just his second career at-bat in Sunday’s 4-0 win over Baltimore. The 21-year-old Cuban mashed a minor league-most 23 home runs in 56 games this season with Triple-A Round Rock. Milwaukee comes into this series with a slim half-game lead over the Chicago Cubs in an NL Central race that looks like its just between those two. The Brewers have won four straight after sweeping three from Pittsburgh, but are just 1-4 in interleague play this season. Milwaukee’s Mike Moustakas is 8-for-20 with four homers and six RBI in his last five games to bring his season totals to 20 HR and 43 runs knocked-in.

Pitchers: Brewers – Freddy Peralta (3-2, 5.11 ERA) | Astros – Brad Peacock (5-3, 3.20)

Freddy Peralta has bounced back-and-forth between the bullpen and rotation, but will get his eighth start of the season on Tuesday after limiting the Miami Marlins to one run and four hits with nine strikeouts in six innings of a 5-1 victory Thursday. It was his first start since My 13th when he allowed two runs – one earned – and seven hits in just four innings of work in a 7-4 loss to Philadelphia. Peralta, who has never faced Houston, has a 4.34 ERA away from home while allowing 23 hits in 18.2 innings.

Milwaukee took two of three from Houston the last time they met in 2016.


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With Brad Peacock firmly back in the rotation full-time, he’s started to go from the wind-up with the bases empty and it seems to paying dividends. In six starts since making the change, Peacock is 3-1 with a 1.32 ERA and 0.94 WHIP but took the loss last time out versus Seattle when he allowed two runs and four hits over five innings. Peacock, who will get his first crack at Milwaukee, owns a 2.38 ERA at home and the Astros are 5-1 when he starts at Minute Maid Park.

I kind of thought this line would be higher with the way Peacock has been pitching, especially at home, but I can see the oddsmakers hesitation with the big bats out for Houston. Those injuries don’t seem to be affecting the team much thanks to the strong pitching they’re getting. The Astros are 18-3 in game one of a series and should be able to knock-off the Brewers here at home.

Check out who Bobby Babowski has on his Free MLB Picks page for Tuesday. He is 77-48 +2177 units on the season after a 27-10 run!

Pick: Astros -118


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BETTING TRENDS:

Brewers are 4-0 in their last 4 overall.
Brewers are 4-0 in their last 4 games on grass.
Brewers are 4-0 in their last 4 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Brewers are 5-1 in their last 6 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
Brewers are 5-1 in their last 6 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Brewers are 4-1 in their last 5 games following a win.
Brewers are 4-1 in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
Brewers are 21-7 in their last 28 games following an off day.
Brewers are 5-2 in their last 7 road games.
Brewers are 36-15 in their last 51 during game 1 of a series.
Brewers are 7-3 in their last 10 games vs. a right-handed starter.
Brewers are 7-3 in their last 10 interleague games vs. a right-handed starter.
Brewers are 9-4 in their last 13 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Brewers are 15-7 in their last 22 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
Brewers are 26-54 in their last 80 interleague road games vs. a right-handed starter.
Brewers are 1-4 in their last 5 interleague games.
Brewers are 1-4 in their last 5 interleague games vs. a team with a winning record.
Brewers are 1-4 in their last 5 interleague road games vs. a team with a winning record.
Brewers are 1-7 in their last 8 interleague road games.
Brewers are 0-5 in their last 5 vs. American League West.
Brewers are 4-1 in Peralta’s last 5 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Brewers are 4-1 in Peralta’s last 5 starts with 4 days of rest.

Astros are 4-0 in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Astros are 5-0 in their last 5 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Astros are 13-3 in their last 16 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Astros are 4-1 in their last 5 interleague games vs. a team with a winning record.
Astros are 4-1 in their last 5 interleague home games vs. a team with a winning record.
Astros are 4-1 in their last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
Astros are 4-1 in their last 5 interleague home games.
Astros are 20-6 in their last 26 Tuesday games.
Astros are 6-2 in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
Astros are 9-3 in their last 12 interleague home games vs. a right-handed starter.
Astros are 20-7 in their last 27 games following an off day.
Astros are 44-16 in their last 60 during game 1 of a series.
Astros are 19-7 in their last 26 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Astros are 16-6 in their last 22 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
Astros are 43-17 in their last 60 overall.
Astros are 43-17 in their last 60 games on grass.
Astros are 37-15 in their last 52 home games.
Astros are 67-28 in their last 95 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
Astros are 53-23 in their last 76 games following a win.
Astros are 61-29 in their last 90 interleague games.
Astros are 48-23 in their last 71 games vs. a right-handed starter.
Astros are 4-0 in Peacock’s last 4 home starts.
Astros are 4-0 in Peacock’s last 4 starts with 5 days of rest.
Astros are 4-0 in Peacock’s last 4 Tuesday starts.
Astros are 5-0 in Peacock’s last 5 interleague starts.
Astros are 4-1 in Peacock’s last 5 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
Astros are 4-1 in Peacock’s last 5 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Astros are 8-2 in Peacock’s last 10 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Astros are 20-7 in Peacock’s last 27 starts during game 1 of a series.
Astros are 21-8 in Peacock’s last 29 starts.
Astros are 5-2 in Peacock’s last 7 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Astros are 20-8 in Peacock’s last 28 starts on grass.

Under is 9-0 in Brewers last 9 interleague road games vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 10-1 in Brewers last 11 interleague games vs. a team with a winning record.
Over is 7-1 in Brewers last 8 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Under is 6-1 in Brewers last 7 Tuesday games.
Over is 4-1 in Brewers last 5 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
Over is 8-2 in Brewers last 10 games following an off day.
Under is 4-1 in Brewers last 5 interleague games.
Over is 4-1 in Brewers last 5 during game 1 of a series.
Under is 21-6-2 in Brewers last 29 interleague games vs. a right-handed starter.
Over is 7-2 in Brewers last 9 vs. American League West.
Under is 31-10 in Brewers last 41 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
Over is 6-2 in Brewers last 8 games vs. a right-handed starter.
Under is 18-7-1 in Brewers last 26 interleague road games vs. a right-handed starter.
Under is 18-7-1 in Brewers last 26 interleague road games.
Under is 5-2 in Brewers last 7 vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 5-2 in Brewers last 7 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Under is 25-11-1 in Brewers last 37 road games.
Over is 5-1 in Peralta’s last 6 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
Over is 4-1 in Peralta’s last 5 starts on grass.
Over is 4-1 in Peralta’s last 5 starts overall.
Over is 4-1 in Peralta’s last 5 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Over is 7-2 in Peralta’s last 9 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.

Under is 5-0 in Astros last 5 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
Under is 4-0 in Astros last 4 home games.
Over is 10-1 in Astros last 11 Tuesday games.
Under is 13-3-1 in Astros last 17 interleague games vs. a right-handed starter.
Over is 4-1 in Astros last 5 interleague games vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 8-2-1 in Astros last 11 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
Over is 4-1 in Astros last 5 interleague games.
Over is 4-1 in Astros last 5 interleague home games vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 4-1-1 in Astros last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Over is 4-1 in Astros last 5 interleague home games.
Under is 6-2-1 in Astros last 9 interleague home games vs. a right-handed starter.
Under is 25-10-1 in Astros last 36 vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 17-7 in Astros last 24 on grass.
Under is 17-7 in Astros last 24 overall.
Under is 12-5 in Astros last 17 games following a win.
Under is 11-5 in Astros last 16 games vs. a right-handed starter.
Under is 49-23-3 in Astros last 75 during game 1 of a series.
Under is 33-16-3 in Astros last 52 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
Under is 3-0-1 in Peacock’s last 4 home starts.
Over is 4-1-1 in Peacock’s last 6 starts when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Over is 13-4 in Peacock’s last 17 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Under is 6-2 in Peacock’s last 8 Tuesday starts.
Under is 3-1-2 in Peacock’s last 6 starts on grass.
Under is 3-1-1 in Peacock’s last 5 starts during game 1 of a series.
Under is 3-1-2 in Peacock’s last 6 starts overall.
Under is 6-2-1 in Peacock’s last 9 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
Under is 8-3-1 in Peacock’s last 12 starts with 5 days of rest.
Under is 5-2 in Peacock’s last 7 starts vs. a team with a winning record.

Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Houston.
Over is 22-7-1 in the last 30 meetings.

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