Breeders Cup Betting 2005 ]]> include($base_url . “/includes/header.htm”); ?>
|Breeders Cup Betting 2005
By Kenneth Strong
The Breeders Cup offers something that no other day in horseracingcan – the chance to make a fortune betting on racehorses – withoutspending one.
Full fields of killer racehorses from all over the world – thekind that hate to lose. Huge Breeders Cup bettingpools bolstered by millions of dollars in uniformed money pouredin by the richest people in the world – many of who havent evenlooked at a program! Stymied horseplayers baffled by the incrediblenumber of variables involved in handicapping and betting the Breeders’Cup.
Add to that mix the fact that longshots greaterthan 20-1 finish first or second in Breeders Cup races 30 percentof the time and you have a prime betting opportunity.
Sure the sharpies will try to take advantageof the uninformed money, usually in the multi-million dollar BreedersCup Ultra Pick 6 pool, which could reach $5 million in 2005. Butat the 2004 Breeders’ Cup, no one picked six winners in the Pick6. Sixty-one consolation tickets of $56,149 were paid out to bettorswith five out of six winners. The Pick 6 is not where the statisticalbetting edge lies regardless, for the casual player taking a shotat Breeders Cup’ betting. That edge is found in exacta and trifectabetting.
In the past 21 years, the average $2 BreedersCup exactor has paid has paid $224. A four-horse $2 exacta box($24) in all eight Breeders’ Cup races will cost you $192. Basedon pure Breeders’ Cup historical statistics, if you hit one race,there’s a good chance you’ll go home with a profit of $32 andmaybe much more if the favorite runs out of the money.
With regards to Breeders’ Cup betting on thetrifecta, the average payoff historically for a $1 ticket hasbeen just over $1400. If you play a $1 trifecta box includingfive horses ($60) in each Breeders’ Cup race for a total costof $480, and you hit just one trifecta that doesnt involve thefavorite winning, you have a good statistical chance of goinghome with a profit of over $900 and probably much more.
You can increase your chances of making a substantialprofit betting the Breeders Cup by utilizing rudimentary handicappingand angle plays to spot long shots in races where the favoriteappears weak. Finding a key horse that is not the favorite andwheeling that horse with all or part of the field can be extremelyprofitable, especially if the favorite runs out of the money.
Example angle plays might include: first or secondtime Lasix (especially on the classy European horses); secondstart off a layoff; second or third start in North America; blinkerson or off; horses who excel at the distance; horses who have givencourageous performances without winning in previous starts; horsesswitching from dirt to turf and vice versa; trainers and horseswho excel off a layoff; jockey changes etc.
The 2005 Breeders Cup World Thoroughbred Championshipswill be held at Belmont Park in Elmont, New York on Saturday,October 29. It takes a special kind of horse to win on Big Sandy,with its long sweeping turns. Remember that when youre makingyour Breeders Cup picks.
Check back here early next week for our speciallist of Breeders Cup betting angles.