Bowling Green vs. Toledo Preview and Pick ]]> include($base_url . “/includes/header.htm”); ?>
|Bowling Green Falcons (4-7) +6 1/2, O/U 46 1/2 at Toledo Rockets (4-7), 7 p.m. Eastern Tuesday, ESPN 2
by Ultimatecapper.com Staff
Two teams who have struggled through disappointing seasons this year conclude their schedules when the Bowling Green Falcons visit the Toledo Rockets in the battle for the Peace Pipe Tuesday night at the Glass Bowl.
After a 4-3 start to this season, Bowling Green has lost four games in a row and sits in a tie for 3rd place in the MACs Eastern Division.
Toledo, which was expected to compete for the MAC West title this season, lost four games in a row earlier this year. The Rockets have won two of three since then but are mired in 5th place in the MAC West.
In their most recent outings, the Falcons lost in a mudbath last Wednesday night 9-7 to Miami-Ohio as 3 ½-point home favorites, while Toledo lost last week to Ball State 20-17, also as 3 ½-point home chalk.
Last season, the Rockets beat Bowling Green 44-41 as five-point road dogs in a triple-OT thriller. The game was tied at 31 after regulation, which already had put the game over its posted total of 60. Toledo outrushed the Falcons that day 284-180, and the two QBs, Bruce Gradkowski and Omar Jacobs (both of whom now earn paychecks in the NFL) combined to go 48 of 79 for 613 yards and seven touchdowns without an interception.
This season, Bowling Green QB Anthony Turner has completed 57% of his passes and owns an 8/4 TD/INT ratio. And Turner has rushed for 196 yards and four TDs in the Falcons last two games.
Toledo QB Clint Cochran has hit on 56% of his passes this season and owns a 6/4 TD/INT ratio.
Bowling Green is outrushing opponents by a 186-139 yards-per-game margin this season, while the Rockets are out-grounding foes by a 152-144 YPG average.
The Falcons offense ranks 40th by converting 41% of their 3rd-down situations into first downs. The Rockets rank 56th with a 39% third-down conversion rate.
The Toledo defense ranks 40th by holding opponents to a 34.5% third-down success rate, while Bowling Green ranks 78th by allowing opponents to convert 40% of the time on 3rd down.
The Rockets rank 16th with a 31:49 average time-of-possession, while the Falcons rank 28th at 31:12.
The Falcons are 4-7 against the spread this season, and while only 2-4 straight up on the road, 4-2 vs. the number away from home.
Toledo is 4-6 ATS this season, 3-2 straight up and 2-2 against the spread at the Glass Bowl.
Bowling Green returned 10 starters this season from a team that went 6-5 overall and 5-3 in the MAC last year.
The Rockets returned 15 starters from a team that went 9-3 overall, 6-2 in the MAC and beat UTEP 45-13 in the GMAC Bowl last season.
These two teams have played four common opponents this season. The Falcons fell to Akron 35-28 17 days ago, while Toledo beat the Zips 35-20 three weeks ago; BG also lost to Central Michigan 31-14 a month ago, while the Chippewas beat the Rockets 42-20 in Week 6; Bowling Green defeated Eastern Michigan 24-21 in Week 7, while the Eagles beat Toledo 17-13 the following week; and both teams lost to Kent State, the Falcons by a 38-3 score in Week 4 and the Rockets by a 40-14 tally in Week 7.
The Sagarin PREDICTOR ratings at USAToday.com ranks Toledo 112th at 59.4, Bowling Green 123rd at 56.3.
The O/U is 4-7 in BG games this season, 6-4 in Toledo games.
Toledo opened up as a four-point favorite for Tuesday nights game, with a total of 48. The Rockets have since been bet up to as much as 6½ at many sportsbooks , while the total has dropped a bit, to around 46½.
The Ultimatecapper Pick: We aren’t really a big fan of the MAC. Anything can happen when 2 scrubs from this conference meet. If forced to make a pick, we’d be on Toledo here.