Bowling Green Falcons vs. Central Michigan Chippewas Preview and Pick ]]> include($base_url . “/includes/header.htm”); ?>
|Bowling Green Falcons (4-3) +7, O/U 51 at Central Michigan Chippewas (4-3), 7:30 Eastern Thursday |
by Ultimatecapper.com Staff
A couple of the better MAC teams hook up for a weeknight date when the Bowling Green Falcons take on the Central Michigan Chippewas Thursday night at Kelly/Shorts Stadium in Mount Pleasant, Michigan.
Bowling Green is 4-3 overall this season and 3-1 and in 2nd place in the MAC East. The Falcons are also just 3-4 against the spread this year but 2-1 ATS as underdogs and 3-0 ATS on the road.
Central Michigan is 4-3 overall this season, 4-0 and in 1st place in the MAC West. And the Chipps are also a perfect 7-0 vs. the number this season.
BG beat Eastern Michigan (which is now 0-6 this season) 24-21 last week, but failed to cover as 10-point home favorites.
CM beat Ball State 18-7 last week as 10-point home chalk.
Both of these teams had to replace solid performers at the quarterback position coming into this season. BG lost Omar Jacobs to the NFL, and CM had to say good-bye to two-year starter Kent Smith. Anthony Turner has helmed the Falcons to the tune of a 60% completion rate and a 6/3 TD/INT ratio, while the Chippewas Dan LeFevour has hit on 60% of his passes and owns an 11/5 TD/INT ratio.
The Falcons are outrushing their opponents by a 194-140 average margin, and have outgained their last three foes on the ground, including Ohio State two weeks ago.
The Chippewas are getting outrushed by an average of 131-122 yards per game this season.
The only opponent these two teams have in common so far this season are the Eastern Michigan Eagles. Bowling Green, as mentioned above, beat EM last week by a field goal, outrushing the Eagles 159-82. Central Michigan beat Eastern Michigan 24-17 in OT a month ago, and got outrushed by the Eagles 188-176.
In games against ranked teams this season, the Falcons opened their campaign with a 35-14 loss to Wisconsin, and got beat (but covered) at Ohio State two weeks ago. The Chippewas opened their season with a 31-24 loss to Boston College and got beat at Michigan 41-17, but covered the spread in both of those games.
BG and CM did not meet last season. Bowling Green has won the last five meetings in this series dating back to 1996. Most recently, the Falcons beat the Chippewas 38-14 two seasons ago.
Bowling Green returned five starters on each side of the ball from a team that went 6-5 overall last season and 5-3 in the MAC, but just 3-8 against the spread and 1-5 ATS on the road.
CM returned 14 starters, including four on the offensive line and six on the defensive front seven, from the Chippewas first winning squad in seven seasons. Central Michigan went 5-3 in the MAC last season, 6-5 overall, 7-4 against the spread, and 3-2 vs. the number at home.
The Sagarin PREDICTOR ratings at USAToday.com rank Bowling Green 98th at 63.8, Central Michigan 71st at 69.4.
The O/U is 3-4 in Falcons games this season, 5-2 in Chippewas games.
This game opened with Central Michigan favored by 6 ½ points and a total of 49 ½. The Chipps have been bet up a bit, to 7 ½ at some sportsbooks , and the total has risen (at the limited number of books with an O/U on this game) to 51.
The Ultimatecapper Pick: We’ll take Central Michigan here but laying no more than a touchdown.