Behind the Lines – Volume II

YES! YES! YES! It’s finally here! After asummer worth of waiting, endless teases and previews the momentis finally here. That’s right it’s … the seriespremiere of ‘Joey’ starring that lovable goof, MattLeblanc! Yeah right, just checking to see if you’re payingattention. Anybody happen to catch that? I was too busy watchingthe NFL pregame show before Colts-Patriots to see if Jessica Simpsonsuffered a wardrobe malfunction. I wish someone had told me therewas a 10 second tape delay. There’s ten minutes of my lifeI ain’t getting back.

The big announcement from the NFL for the weekendis the game between Tennessee and Miami has been moved to a Saturdayat 1 PM start time due to the expected arrival of Hurricane Ivan.I love it how people always talk about moving to Florida becausethe weather is so nice. Tell that to the people who are bracingfor their third monster in about a month.

This storm may also have an impact on the offshorecasino world as well. It just narrowly missed the island of Curacao,home to Sports Insights’ partners Oasis and Gameday. Thiswas quite a scare for the folks down there as historically theisland is outside of the hurricane belt. The path turned northwhich was great news for Curacao but not so good for Jamaica.Ivan is on a direct course for the island which is also a havenfor a couple of sportsbooks. Here’s hoping for another turnout to sea, but it’s not looking good.

Well the weather is something that’s outof our control so let’s turn our attention to something youdo have a say in: where to put your money down this weekend. Thereis a full slate of college ball Saturday but since it’s openingweekend of the NFL our focus is going there. One college note:looking at our bet graph on Sports Insights for the FSU-Miamigame we see the parlay/teaser count for Miami has dropped from74% down to 61%. What does that tell us? That people know thatsince 1983 there have been seven games in this series decidedby 3 points or less.

Do they also know that Miami has one EVERY single one of thosegames! What is the reason for such an outstanding stat? Not abig secret: FSU’s kickers perform as if they have 2 handswrapped around their throat. Choke, choke, choke. How else canyou explain someone like Janikowski, who has the leg to make itfrom 60 + yards, not coming through in a situation like that?Me thinks a moneyline bet on the ‘Canes is in order …

Alright, let’s take a look at some gameson the NFL slate:

Tennessee @ Miami – Sat. 1 PM
How about this one, the first game of the weekend? Miami, a perennialplayoff squad (albeit a perennial playoff early exit team) isgetting 3 points in their home opener. Obviously the betting publicthinks this line should be much higher as they are ALL OVER theTitans, to the tune of 91% on the straight bets! Ninety-one percent?Those are Reagan-Mondale numbers.
What’s up with this? Doesn’t Miami still have JuniorSeau, Zach Thomas and Jason Taylor anchoring their D? Hasn’tTennessee shown a propensity for injuries, especially Steve McNair?And now Tennessee doesn’t have a kicker after Joe Nedney’shamstring injury in practice on Tuesday.
Books are very hesitant to move off the number 3, but if thisgame goes to +3.5 or +4 you have to consider it.

Seattle @ New Orleans – Sun. 1 PM
Here’s another line that has the potential to move in favorof a home ‘dog. The line here is Seattle -2.5, it’sbeen there since it opened. Now I read 10 preseason publicationsand I believe 8 of them had Seattle representing the NFC in theSuper Bowl. And right now people are betting as if they believethe hype: 68% of the straight bets and 80% of the Junk drawerare on Seattle. I guarantee this game will hit -3 before kickoff.Make sure you keep checking Sports Insights to see which of yourouts makes the move first.

Dallas @ Minnesota – Sun. 4:15 PM
The last game we’ll take a look at on this week’s slateshows the home team favored in this one. But obviously the publicdoesn’t think it’s by enough as this is another gamewhere we have another 91% of the public unloading on one team.Minnesota -4.5 is the play here so far. I only have one word ofcaution for you: when people are betting the game so heavily,like they already know the final score? Tread very carefully …T.B.