Bob Acton’s College Basketball Picks ]]> include($base_url . “/includes/header.htm”); ?>
|THURSDAY NIGHT THROWDOWN IN COLLEGE BASKETBALL! |
by Bob Acton of Sportingbet USA – now SuperBook.com –
March Madness is looming on the horizon and for millions ofbettors that means those crazy bracket pools that show up at everyoffice and your local watering hole. Most folks dont so theirhomework and simply pick the school whose name they fancy, whilea small contingent actually takes the time too find out who ishot and who is not entering the tournament.
One school who over the years has been front and center in themix, yet is struggling big time is the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets.They have lost seven straight and coach Paul Hewitt has decidedto bench three starters as they head to Tallahassee to face theFlorida State Seminoles. Mario West, Lewis Clinch and center TheotisTarver, will replace DAndre Bell, Zam Fredrick and Jeremis Smithwhen the game begins and the players held a meeting this week,to rededicate themselves to finishing strongly.
Very rarely will you see a team like Tech listed as an underdogby double digits yet the line makers are handing you 11 tonight,even though Tech has covered all three games where they were hugedogs. At Boston College they were +12.5 yet they lost by 2, againstNC State they were +11.5 and lost by 9 and at Michigan State theywere +13 and lost by just 2. Lastly, GT has won the last 3 inthis series and in their last 4 conference road games, the averagemargin of defeat was less than 7 points, so there is a strongargument for GT here.
On the flip side you have to ask yourself whythe guys who make all the money in Vegas and that would be thelinemakers are hanging such a huge line. FSU is just 2-4 in theirpast six and are coming off an emotional loss to Duke. Only oncethis year the Seminoles were huge favorites and they failed tocover. GT has also won the last three in this series and in theirfour conference road games to date, the average margin of defeatis only 7 points.
It looks like the entire sports betting worldwill be on GT as the line has gone from -11 down to -10 as I sitat my computer. The smart guys have all these statistics at theirfingertips when they establish these lines and they do not makea habit of being wrong on a consistent basis. With GT coveringon the road of late they know that John Q Public will be all overthe dog and I will run the other way and lay the points with FloridaState!
Another game that looks like the public willjump all over the dog will take place tonight in the city of theSuper Bowl Champions as the 13th ranked Pittsburgh Panthers playhost to the 10th ranked West Virginia Mountaineers. WV has wonthe past two games is this series dubbed the Backyard Brawland are 7-3 against the point spread the past 10 games. Pittsburghis 5-5 against the spread the past 10 games and has lost theirlast two. The math here is quite simple as the public will runwith what they will perceive as a +5 gift from Santa Claus andtake the higher ranked WV and their exciting 3-point shootingattack. Im headed in the other direction as I look for the Panthersto be very fired up and shutdown the underdog Mountaineers!