November 7, 2007
Bet On Football
Dallas Cowboys (7-1 SU, 6-2 ATS) at New YorkGiants (6-2 SU, 5-3 ATS)
It may not be the Patriots-Colts, but thisNFC East clash is almost as good a matchup as last Sunday’sshowdown between the NFL’s only unbeaten teams. The Cowboyshave had a solid season, the only blemish being a 48-27 home-fieldloss to the aforementioned Patriots on Oct. 14. The Giants are rightbehind the Cowboys, both in the standings (a Giants’ win wouldgive the teams identical SU records), and in surprising opponentsthis season. The Giants have won six straight after dropping theirfirst two – the exact same position they were in midway throughlast season. But this year they’re healthy. Dallas is 5-1ATS in its past six games on the road, but is not nearly as strongagainst the Giants, going 1-5-1 ATS in their past seven, 2-6 SUin their past eight games at Giants Stadium, and 1-4 ATS in theirpast five at Giants Stadium.
Minnesota Vikings (3-5 SU, 3-3-2 ATS) at Green Bay Packers(7-1 SU, 6-2 ATS)
These NFC North division rivals meet for the secondtime this season, the first clash a 23-16 road win for the Packersas slim 1-point favorites. The fact that Green Bay covered the spreadis actually quite rare in the recent history of this rivalry, asthe underdog had cashed in 16 of the previous 17 before this season’sgame. The Packers are back at Lambeau Field sitting atop the divisionand tied with Dallas for the best record in the conference. ButGreen Bay has been a poor investment as home favorites (5-12-1 ATS)and as division home favorites (3-9 ATS). Minnesota has coverednine of its past 12 against Green Bay. The Over has been 12-4-1over the past 17 meetings at Lambeau.
Jacksonville Jaguars (5-3 SU, 4-4 ATS) atTennessee Titans (6-2 SU, 5-3 ATS)
This matchup has a history of favoring the hometeam, with a slight overall edge to Tennessee. The Titans have won13 of the past 18 series meetings, and is an equally impressive12-6 ATS over that span. But the home team has won and cashed in11 of the past 16 clashes, and the SU winner is an amazing 23-2ATS. The Jaguars are 14-4 after losing by 14 points or more andthey have cashed at a rate of 9-2-1 as division road underdogs.The Jaguars also have covered the spread in six straight games whencoming off a double-digit SU loss. Tennessee upset Jacksonville13-10 in the season opener as 6½-point road underdogs.
Denver Broncos (3-5 SU, 1-7 ATS) at KansasCity Chiefs (4-4 SU, 5-3 ATS)
This AFC West rivalry is another ‘homer’series, as the home side has cashed at an impressive 10-2-1 rate.Kansas City is particularly strong against Denver at Arrowhead Stadium,winning 12 of 16 straight up. But the Chiefs don’t fare wellas favorites against the Broncos, dropping the ball in seven of11 games when they’re favored against the Broncos. The Broncosare also 10-4 as division underdogs of more than one point. KansasCity is 20-7-2 ATS at home after allowing 30 points or more. Thereis a heavy trend toward Over, as eight of the past 11 series gameshave gone over.
Buffalo Bills (4-4 SU, 6-2 ATS) at Miami Dolphins (0-8 SU,2-4-2 ATS)
The Bills have been money in the bank against Miami – at leastin the past four meetings, as they’ve cashed four straight.But that’s where the good news ends for Buffalo, as it haslost eight of the past 12 series showdowns SU on the road. And Buffalois just 2-9-1 when favored on the road against AFC East opponents.On the
bright side, the Bills have covered five straight overall. The Dolphinsare actually worse than the Bills in divisional matchups, going2-11 ATS over their past 13. But they have cashed eight of 11 ashome underdogs following back-to-back SU losses. The Bills havegone over the total in 17 of 26 as road favorites and in 13 of 16following a double-digit victory.
Cleveland Browns (5-3 SU, 6-2 ATS) at PittsburghSteelers (6-2 SU & ATS)
This AFC North rivalry adds a new chapter this weekend,and a Cleveland win would leave the teams tied for first place inthe division. As if the Browns need extra incentive, they will bein revenge mode after losing to Pittsburgh 34-7 in their home openeras 4½-point underdogs. The Steelers have won and coveredthe spread in seven straight against the Browns overall, and are12-2 SU and 10-4 ATS at home. The Browns are 11-6-1 as road underdogsof seven points or more and 18-6-1 ATS after scoring 23 points ormore. Cleveland has gone over at a 15-4-2 rate as division roadunderdogs and Pittsburgh has followed suit at a 13-1-1 clip as divisionalhome favorites.
St. Louis Rams (0-8 SU & ATS) at NewOrleans Saints (4-4 SU, 3-5 ATS)
Who’s worse, St. Louis or Miami? Will theRams win a game this season? Neither of these questions will beanswered this weekend as the lowly Rams face an uphill battle –again – going into the Superdome. St. Louis has a nearly perfect(imperfect?) record as a double-digit underdog, failing to beatthe spread in nine of its past 10. On the flip isde, New Orleansis equally inept when favored by 10 or more points, dropping eightof 10 games. The Rams are 0-7 as road underdogs of 10½ to14 points, and they have failed to cash at a 9-28-2 rate againsta non-division opponent. The red-hot Saints have won four straightafter starting the year 0-4. However, they are 1-12 ATS after scoring28 points or more in back-to-back games when facing an opponentthat’s below .500.
Atlanta Falcons (2-6 SU, 5-3 ATS) at CarolinaPanthers (4-4 SU & ATS)
The Falcons have been solid against the spread againstCarolina, going 11-6-3 over the past 20 head-to-head. But it wasthe Panthers who drew first blood this season, winning 27-20 inWeek 3 at Atlanta, covering the 3½-point spread. The Panthersare 19-6 ATS after scoring 14 points or less in two straight gamesand they are 21-11 ATS after losing by double-digits. There is anUnder trend between these NFC South rivals: Atlanta has gone underin 17 of 23 on the road, including 11 of its past 12. Carolina hasgone under in 14 straight as home favorites against divisional opponents.The under is 10-2 in the past 12 meetings at Bank of America Stadium,and in 17 of 22 clashes overall.
Philadelphia Eagles (3-5 SU, 3-3 ATS) at Washington Redskins(5-3 SU, 2-4-2 ATS)
These NFC East rivals seem to be headed in oppositedirections. Every time the Eagles look like they’ve got ittogether, they disappoint instead. They have literally been in awin-one, lose-one pattern for the past six games. The Redskins havebeen surprising this season, and are right behind the Giants andCowboys in the division. The Eagles used to dominate the Redskinson a regular basis, but the tables are slowly turning. Philadelphiais 7-3 SU against Washington over the past 10, but Washington wonthe last meeting seven weeks ago, a 20-12 victory on Monday NightFootball in Philadelphia on Sept. 17. Philadelphia is 9-3 SU inits past 12 games against Washington, 6-1 SU in its past seven againstWashington on the road, and 8-4 ATS in its past 12 against Washingtonon the road. There is a big-time Under trend: The total has goneunder in seven of Washington’s past 8 games against Philadelphia,under in five of Washington’s past five at home against Philadelphia,under in eight of Philadelphia’s last 12 games, and under in fourof Philadelphia’s last six games on the road.
Cincinnati Bengals (2-6 SU, 2-5-1 ATS) atBaltimore Ravens (4-4 SU, 1-7 ATS)
Cincinnati’s disappointing season continues,and it doesn’t look any brighter this weekend. Baltimore haswon and cashed eight of its past 11 against the Bengals at home.The favorite has covered the spread in nine of the past 11 tiltsand amazingly, the SU winner has covered 90 per cent of the timeover the past 22 clashes – 20-2 ATS. The Bengals had coveredsix straight on the road versus division foes until coming up shortat Cleveland in their road opener this year. Cincinnati has goneover in 10 of 11 as division road underdogs, and the Ravens havedone the same in 11 of 16 as division home favorites.
Chicago Bears (3-5 SU, 2-6 ATS) at OaklandRaiders (2-6 SU, 3-5 ATS)
The Bears have traditionally been dominating when getting into themeat of the schedule, going 21-9 ATS on the road in Weeks 10-13and 23-8 ATS away from home in November. Chicago has covered 13of 19 when facing teams from the AFC West, though it came up shortin its first two chances this season. But the disappointing Bearsare only 4-11-1 ATS on the road against teams from the AFC. Oaklandis 6-18 ATS as home underdogs of seven points or less and it hasfailed to cover the spread in 15 of 20 at home overall. Chicagohas gone over in 15 of 20 as favorites and in six straight afterallowing 17 points or less in two straight games.