New England Patriots vs. Indianapolis Colts Preview and Pick ]]> include($base_url . “/includes/header.htm”); ?>
|New England Patriots (14-4) at Indianapolis Colts (14-4) -3, o/u 47.5, 6:30 p.m. Eastern Sunday, January 21, CBS Network |
by Ultimatecapper.com Staff
The New England Patriots and Indianapolis Colts meet in AFC Championship at the RCA Dome in Indianapolis. This game features teams very familiar with each other in playoff games. The Patriots have owned the Colts and Tom Brady is 13-1 in playoff games.
New England has been playing very good lately winning 8 of their last 9 games. Last week they beat San Diego by a score of 24-21 to advance to the championship game.
Indianapolis got off to a fast start this season with a 9-0 start but then struggled defensively and were forced to play in the first round of the playoffs. In the playoffs their defense has made a great turnaround as they have only allowed an average of 7 points in their wins against the Chiefs and Ravens.
The Patriots are 12-6 against the spread this season; they are 8-1 straight up and 8-1 ATS on the road.
The Colts are 10-8 ATS this season, and they are 9-0 SU and 6-3 vs. the number at home.
New England’s starting QB, Tom Brady, has thrown 28 touchdowns and 15 interceptions this season. His QB rating is 86.1 with a 62.30% completion rate.
Indianapolis’s starting QB, Peyton Manning, is having another big year. He has 32 touchdown passes and only 14 interceptions. His QB rating is 96.3 with a completion rate of 65.12.
The Patriots are outrushing their opponents this season by a 121-96 yards-per-game average, while the Colts are being outrushed their opponents by a 114-161 YPG margin.
New England is averaging 5.2 yards per play on the season while Indianapolis is averaging 5.9 yards per play. The Patriots defense has given up an average of 5.3 yards per play while the Colts have given up an average of 5.5 yards per play.
These two teams have played eight common opponents this season. In these games New England was 8-3 and averaged 23.1 points and gave up an average of 15.4 points. Indianapolis is also 8-3 and is averaging 25.4 points and giving up an average of 23.2 points against these 8 teams.
These two teams have met already this season as the Colts defeated the Patriots 27-20 in Indianapolis on 11/5/06.
New England ranks 11th in total offense averaging 335.7 yards per game. Indianapolis ranks 3rd with 379.4 yards per game.
In scoring offense, the Patriots rank 7th averaging 24.1 points per game and the Colts rank 3rd averaging 26.7 points per game.
On the defensive side of the ball the Patriots rank 5th in total defense giving up 294.4 yards per game while the Colts rank 21st giving up an average of 332.2 yards per game.
In scoring defense New England ranks 2nd and Indianapolis ranks 23rd giving up 14.8 and 22.5 points per game, respectively.
The Sagarin PREDICTOR ratings at USAToday.com ranks New England #1 at 32.26, Indianapolis is #2 at 29.13.
The Over/Under is 7-11 in Patriots games this season, 8-10 in Colts games.
Indianapolis opened up as a 3 point favorite with a total of 48.5. The line has remained at Indianapolis -3 and the total has dropped to 47.5. At the time of this writing, the betting public was backing the Patriots 58%-42%.
The Ultimatecapper Pick: This should be another great game with the history of these two teams. We feel that anytime you are getting points with a clutch QB like Brady and a great Head Coach like Belichek that you have to side with them. We think this game is a tossup and will grab the points.
New England 24 Indianapolis 21