2005 Football Betting Tips ]]> include($base_url . “/includes/header.htm”); ?>
|Ways to find opportunity in Late August |
By Tony George www.sportsaudioshows.com
I have noticed a trend from oddsmakers recently, as the favoritesin baseball, especially teams in playoff contention, are carryingsome added chalk, which makes a moneyline player a little nervouscoming down the stretch. You will see some softer lines in baseballas the NCAA and NFL football season takes over, but rest assuredthat oddsmakers will NOT overlook sharp players who like to catchthem sleeping at the wheel during the madness of the first twoweeks of football, the lines will soften slightly, but the rightteams will be favored, and you’ll pay a price for good pitchingthis time of the year. Perhaps it is time for some exotic wagers,so I have stolen a passage from a previous article here I havewritten, that may add some profits in terms of an alternativeto straight up wagers in baseball on a heavy chalk day.
In baseball the team ONLY has to win to cash tickets. It comesdown to some real simple items to look at to get started, mainlypitching and hitting, that is the bottom line in the simplestof terms. I also look at slugging percentage and on base percentageand then a few intangibles. But wait a minute the novice says,I will not lay 320 with Randy Johnson, and 280 with Pedro Martinez,what if they lose? Granted it is possible, even playing a weaksister, that one of these studs may have an off day, but the beautyis you can lower the odds in baseball with exotic wagers, withinreason.
Lets say you have 2 teams, with 2 strong pitchersboth laying 200 or more against a team they should clearly mopthe floor with, but you dont want to expose yourself to a heavychalk line. I suggest a 2-team parlay, for half of your normalwager. The payout with those odds is bet $100 to win $125 fora two teamer. Worth a shot isnt it? Remember also you can layit on a run line too, it lowers the odds, but Team A has to beatTeam B by 1.5 runs, or basically win by 2 runs in order to casha ticket at much lower odds, once again providing you an optionto make money in baseball on a side play.
The NCAA Football season kicks off this Thursday,and bettors are pouring in as far as new sign-ups for my serviceand the phone is ringing with excitement in the air, which causesme some concern, simply from an experience standpoint. I tendto use caution in the next 2 weeks, as 13 years of experiencehas taught me that nothing is, as it seems, in the opening weeksof College football. I will play the teams I have researched andwill have solid info and analysis for my selections. If anyonestarts to spread it around all over the place in the opening weeks,say with 7 bets or more in a day, you are asking for failure.Keep it simple guys, use the experts advise that have done theirhomework and use moderation with your bankroll, maybe 1/2 unitflat bet plays with 3 or more selections if you go that route.If you win, you make money, and if you have a losing day, thedownside is less.
If you look to this Thursday’s and the weekendNCAA football numbers, there are some large spreads, and the KEYis to look for underdogs that have the right elements to competeagainst the big boys that can cover a 3 or 4 touchdown spread,as some of the lines are based on public perception. Lets be honest,how sharp can a line be when there is no stats to go on. How sharpis any team going to be in week 1 with some players having noteven seen varsity experience at the Division I level until thisweekend’s games? There may not be a ton of upsets, but there mightbe some scares, which means pointspread covers for underdogs.
In the NFL Preseason, look for the 1st half linesthis weekend to find better odds and higher chances of winning,as many teams will not play starters past the first quarter, insome cases not more than a few series, so the REAL value liesin the first half lines, as it will be a crapshoot in the secondhalf in a lot of these Week 4 games.
Most teams have started to cut players, and afterthis weekend, all teams will be down to 53 man rosters, so therewill be some players taking chances to make big plays this weekendto impress the coaches and get a full time job. That results inturnovers, forced balls, penalties, and some serious scoring swings.That adds some intangible’s to the situation in week 4, so thefirst half line is the way to look in my opinion. In some cases,certain teams will focus on a win this weekend that are winless,so some added emphasis on a game plan by coaches may in fact bea plus with a winless team, and looking into those scenario’s,would be profitable, depending on each teams situation.
Tony George enters his 13 season as a professionalhandicapper, and has 33 Top 10 awards to his credit. You can reachTony at 800-562-1017 or at www.sportsaudioshows.com about hisprofitable and affordable wares.