West Virginia Mountaineers (8-1) –11, O/U 53 at Pitt Panthers (6-4), 7:30 p.m. Eastern Thursday, ESPN
by Ultimatecapper.com Staff
The West Virginia Mountaineers, with hopes of a BCS bowl bid still alive, trip to the Steel City for the 99th playing of the Backyard Brawl with the Pitt Panthers Thursday night at Heinz Field.
West Virginia sits at 3-1 and tied for 2nd place in the Big East Conference, one game back of the first-place Rutgers Scarlet Knights.
Pittsburgh, losers of three games in a row after starting the season 6-1, occupies 5th place in the Big East at 2-3. With six wins, the Panthers are already bowl-eligible, but could use another win to secure a good bowl bid. Pitt hosts Louisville in their season finale next weekend.
The Mountaineers beat Cincinnati last week 42-24 as 18-point home favorites.
The Panthers lost at Connecticut last week 46-45 in double-OT as seven-point road chalk. Pitt led 31-17 after three quarters vs. the Huskies, but allowed the tying touchdown with three seconds left in the game. The Panthers just couldn’t stop the run, allowing UConn to rush for 317 yards on the day.
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In fact, during their three-game losing streak (to Rutgers, South Florida and Connecticut), Pitt has allowed an average of 258 yards rushing.
West Virginia beat the Panthers last season 45-13 as 15-point home favorites. The game was relatively close much of the way, with the Mountaineers leading 24-13 after three quarters. But WV put the game away with a 21-0 fourth quarter. The Mountaineers outrushed Pitt 451-122 and held the ball for almost 34 minutes. The game topped its posted total of 43 early in the fourth quarter.
WV is 4-3-1 against the spread this season, while the Panthers are 5-4 vs. the numbers.
The Mountaineers’ only loss thus far this season was that 44-34 decision at Louisville two weeks ago.
The West Virginia running game is outrushing opponents by a 318-88 yards-per-game average this season.
Pitt, meanwhile, is getting outrushed by a 158-141 YPG margin.
WV QB Patrick White not only is hitting on 67% of his passes this season for a 7/5 TD/INT ratio, but has run the ball for 837 yards and 15 TDs.
Panthers QB Tyler Palko is one of the best passers in the country, with a 69% completion rate and a 22/6 TD/INT ratio.
These two teams have played three common opponents this season. West Virginia beat Cincinnati last week 42-24, while Pitt beat the Bearcats 33-15 in Week 2. WV won at Connecticut 37-11 four weeks ago, while the Panthers, as mentioned above, fell to the Huskies 46-45 in double-OT last week. And the Mountaineers defeated Syracuse 41-17 a month ago, while Pitt beat the Orange 21-11 the previous week.
The Sagarin PREDICTOR ratings at USAToday.com rank West Virginia 7th at 89.9, the Panthers a surprising 23rd at 81.3.
The O/U is a cumulative 12-5 in Mountaineers and Pitt games this season.
Weather forecasts call for rain and some winds Thursday night in Pittsburgh, and Heinz Field isn’t known for good footing in good weather.
The Ultimatecapper Pick: We like Pitt in this spot! | 
