Week 3 AFC Betting Review

The Jacksonville Jaguars, seven-point road dogs last week at Indianapolis, outrushed the Colts 157-10 in the first half and held a 24:30/5:30 time-of-possession advantage. But Byron Leftwich tossed a red-zone interception and Indy scored on an 82-yard punt return, giving Jacksonville just a 7-7 halftime tie with the Colts. A couple of second-half Indy touchdowns later and the Colts had escaped with a 21-14 win (and a push for most bettors).

By games end, the Jags held a 191-63 rushing advantage and had owned the ball for 39 minutes. The great Jacksonville defense also limited Colt QB Peyton Manning to a 14/31/219 performance, the second time in the last two seasons they’ve held Manning to a sub-.500 completion %. But Jaguars kicker Josh Scobee missed two field goal attempts, one from 24 yards, which didn’t help things at all.

Jacksonville is now 2-5 straight up against Indy under head coach Jack Del Rio.

Sunday’s game easily stayed under the posted total of 43.The Denver Broncos, who defeated the New England Patriots in an AFC divisional-round game last season in Denver, beat the Pats again, this time in New England, 17-7 Sunday night.

The Broncos, 6½-point road underdogs, outrushed the Patriots 144-50 in building a 17-0 lead. Denver QB Jake Plummer, amid questions about his recent performance, hit WR Javon Walker on two long (32 and 83-yard) TD passes for the Broncos’ scores. And the Denver defense pitched a shutout into the fourth quarter. In fact, the late window-dressing score New England put up was the first TD the Broncos had allowed this season. Remember, Denver saw the St. Louis Rams kick six field goals in a Week 1 Broncos loss, and Kansas City only kicked two FGs last week in Denver’s 9-6 OT win.

Sunday’s game was another easy win for unders bettors, never approaching the 39-point total. Denver has gone under in all three of their games this season, while two of New England’s three games have also stayed below the total.

The Cincinnati Bengals, believe it or not, are suddenly one of the great road teams in the NFL. Cincinnati got beat in the boxscore, but benefited from a key series of plays to win a tough one against the Steelers in Pittsburgh Sunday 28-20.

Pittsburgh, as they’re apt to do, outrushed their opponent Sunday 170-87, out-first-downed the Bengals 27-15 and held a 34/26 TOP advantage. But with the Steelers leading 7-0 in the first quarter, QB Ben Roethlisberger tossed an interception deep in the red zone. Cincy then drove 97-yards for the tying TD. The lead then went back-and-forth from there, but with Pittsburgh leading 17-14 with eight minutes to go in the game, the Steelers fumbled a punt, Cincy recovered and quickly scored to take the lead. On the next drive, Pittsburgh fumbled again, and QB Carson Palmer hit The Housh for another score and a 28-17 lead. The Steelers drove to the Cincy 16 in the final moments with hopes of overtime, but Big Ben forced one down the middle for an INT – Pittsburgh’s fifth turnover of the day – sealing the outright win for the two-point road dog Bengals.

Cincinnati, which went 6-2 straight up last season on the road and 6-1-1 against the spread, is already 2-0 SU and ATS away from home this season, winning at Kansas City and in the Steel City.

The game went over its posted total of 43.

The New York Jets pulled off a minor upset Sunday, beating the Buffalo Bills outright 28-20 as 5 ½-point road underdogs. With two wins already this season, New York has exactly half the number of victories it came up with all of last season.

Buffalo outgained the Jets 475-256 and outrushed New York 169-74. But three Bills turnovers, including a fumble that was returned for a touchdown, led to the defeat.

Sunday’s game easily surpassed the posted total of 34, which was one of the three lowest on the Week 3 schedule.

The Cleveland Browns, seven-point home dogs against the Baltimore Ravens Sunday, looked like they were going to pull the upset. Cleveland had scored the first two touchdowns Baltimore had allowed this season, and led 14-3 going into the fourth quarter. But a Ravens TD and two Matt Stover FGs later, the last one from 52 yards out with 20 seconds left in the game, Baltimore had escaped with a 15-14 win.

Ravens QB Steve McNair looked a bit shaky, especially in the first half, but he makes up for what his body can’t do anymore with his leadership. Baltimore did what it had to do in the clutch, scoring three times in the fourth quarter for the victory.

The Ravens outrushed the Browns 86-38.

Cleveland easily covered the spread, and the game stayed under its posted total of 33.

The Miami Dolphins, chic pre-season picks to cause some damage in the AFC, put on another lackluster performance but managed to get their first win of the season Sunday, beating the Tennessee Titans 13-10.

Miami outrushed Tennessee 159-62, with the help of a 39-yard run by WR Chris Chambers. Dolphins RB Ronnie Brown totaled 90 yards, 27 of which came on one run that led to the game-winning FG with less than four minutes to go in the game.

Miami, 11-point home chalk for Sunday’s game, is now 0-3 against the spread this season. Sunday’s game easily stayed under the posted total of 35.

The Washington Redskins, four-point road favorites in Houston Sunday, spotted the Texans an early touchdown and then scored the next 31 points on their way to a 31-15 victory.

Washington outrushed Houston 234-61 and held a 38/22 TOP advantage.And often scatter-armed Redskins QB Mark Brunell set anew NFL record by completing his first 22 passes, helpingWashington convert nine of 13 third-down situations.

But bettors should keep things in perspective; the Texans’ defense ranks last in the league in yards allowed (484 per game), passing yards allowed (321 PG) and scoring (32.7 PPG), and 29th in rushing (163 yards allowed PG).

The game went over the posted total of 37.