Week 2 NFL Info

Opening week of the NFL was all about the underdogs but it’s going to be a tough call for players to like all the dogs this week, especially with so many games which look like a mismatch.

Five of the 16 games have a double digit handicap which must be some sort of a record for week 2 of the NFL. With no team likely to be anywhere close to reaching its peak, it’s a tough ask to see Baltimore, Indianapolis, Cincinnati, San Diego and Denver all win by more than a touchdown and field goal combined. If you think that many NFL games are decided simply by the way the ball bounced at one point in the game, it’s surprising to see these handicaps so high.

That said, it’s easy to see why our two biggest skewed games on the betting so far have gone that way. Bettors are opposing the teams they saw last week that they thought stunk – Green Bay and Oakland.

First up in the popularity stakes is the Baltimore Ravens, who have been bet up from an opening -10.5 to -12 as bettors realize how poor the Oakland Raiders – their opponents this week – were in Monday Night Football. 91% of the action so far (at 9am EST on Friday) has been on the Ravens, who destroyed Tampa Bay 27-0 in week one. Oakland of course were shut out by the same scoreline against San Diego so you can see why the number is so high.

I am a big fan of the Ravens this season and regular readers of my BetUSA column will know that I tipped them as my ‘surprise team’ of this year. That said, I do start to think a 12 point handicap in week two is still a little high but that is what the market is dictating. Bettors almost always over-react to teams that are shutout on Sunday or Monday Night Football and I think that if the Ravens had not impressed so much against the Bucs and the Raiders had not been on national TV that this game would otherwise have had a handicap of nearer 9. As someone who has bet them for the Super Bowl at 50-1 (they are now 18-1) I would personally like to see the Ravens win easily but from a business point of view it would be much better if they did not cover the handicap.

Second most popular team with the public is the New Orleans Saints. If you had told me last season that I would be writing that sentence in September 2006 I would have sent you to a psychiatric institution. But yes, the Saints have been bet from -1 to -2.5 for their trip to Lambeau Field and the reason is that the Green Bay Packers are clearly the worst team in the NFL. Fresh off a week one 26-0 mauling by the Bears, the Packers entertain the Saints, who came up with a 19-14 victory over Cleveland. With Favre in freefall I think the bettors have probably got this one right. The Saints look like a team that is rapidly improving while the Packers probably need a couple of years and a new quarterback to really show any sort of form. 89% of the cash so far this week is on the Saints and I think that makes sense.

Elsewhere the cash is much more evenly distributed. At 9am EST on Friday the BetUSA pointspread positions were as follows:

Buffalo (+6.5) 42% at Miami (-6.5) 48%

Carolina (-1) 68% at Minnesota (+1) 32%

Cleveland (+10.5) 19% at Cincinnati (-10.5) 81%

Detroit (+9) 48% at Chicago (-9) 52%

Houston (+13.5) 17% at Indianapolis (-13.5) 83%

N.Y. Giants (+3) 71% at Philadelphia (-3) 29%

Tampa Bay (+5.5) 23% at Atlanta (-5.5) 77%

Arizona (+7) 36% at Seattle (-7) 64%

St. Louis (-3) 79% at San Francisco (+3) 21%

Kansas City (+11) 50% at Denver (-11) 50%

New England (-6) 60% at N.Y. Jets (+6) 40%

Tennessee (+12) 20% at San Diego (-12) 80%

Washington (+6) 57% at Dallas (-6) 43%

The main thing we are hoping for at BetUSA this week is that there are no more shutouts this week. There were an unprecedented three teams last week that scored no points and as we refund all money line wagers on teams that fail to score it cost us a huge amount of money.

My money this week is on the Jets +6 as I was unimpressed by the Pats last week and on the Eagles (-3) as I just don’t get what people see in the Giants at the moment while the Eagles impressed me last week.