| Perry's Perspective: NCAAF Feature
Will the Buckeyes burst JoePa’s bubble?
Hear that? That’s the sound of silent smilesin Happy Valley.
Not so long ago, things weren’t so happy in theValley. In fact, you likely heard some of the angry roars callingfor the head of 78-year-old Joe Paterno, legendary coach of thePenn State Nittany Lions.
Of course, that was before JoePa and the Lionshad built a 5-0 record and occupied first place in the Big Ten.Their impressive start has propelled the Lions into what usedto be familiar territory: the college football Top 25.
The Lions, who were 7-16 the past two years,debuted at No. 16 in the AP college football rankings this week.It’s the first time Penn St. has cracked the Top 25 since 2002.
Unfortunately, the AP ranking and the happy silencemay not last long for ol’ Joe. The Lions have enjoyed a fairlysoft schedule so far this season and have faced really only onetest, Minnesota (4-1).
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That all changes on Saturday when Penn St. takeson conference rival No. 6 Ohio St. (3-1). Both teams are undefeatedin conference play so far this season – the Lions are 2-0 andthe Buckeyes are 1-0.
One of the big obstacles the Lions will haveto overcome is the Buckeyes’ stifling defense, which tops theBig Ten. OSU has a particularly nasty rushing defense, which ranksfirst in the nation allowing a mere 164 yards on the ground overits first four games.
This could be especially troublesome for theLions, whose offense relies heavily on the running game. PennSt.’s rushing attack ranks No. 6 overall courtesy of running backTony Hunt (475 yards) and quarterback Michael Robinson (286 yards).
And Robinson, who has passed for more than 1,000yards, will be kept on his toes by a defense which leads the leaguein sacks with 16; four of those came by way of senior LB BobbyCarpenter.
In terms of head-to-head matchups, the Buckeyeshave won the last three games against the Lions including a 21-10victory as 7-point home favorites last October.
We currently have OSU listed as 3-point favoritesin what will be the Buckeyes' first road game of the season. Onthe moneyline, the Buckeyes are -155 and the Lions are +135.
In terms of trends, here’s something interestingto consider: the home team has won and covered the spread in eightout of the last 10 meetings between these two teams. In fact,the home team has covered seven straight times dating back to1998.
The Buckeyes are 2-2 ATS so far this season comparedto 2-3 for the Lions.
Penn St. is coming off a 44-14 shellacking ofMinnesota as a measly one-point favorite. OSU, meanwhile, is comingoff a rest week after pasting Iowa 31-6 as an 8.5-point chalkon Sept. 24.
With the nation’s No. 12 overall defense (OSU)versus the No. 20 defense, we’ve got the over/under pegged ata fairly tight 42.5 points. The Buckeyes are 2-2 O/U and PennSt. is 3-2 O/U so far this season.
Under coach Jim Tressel, OSU is 17-6 againstranked teams and 5-2 against teams ranked in the Top 10.
Kick off is scheduled for 7:45 p.m. ET (ESPN).
Other games to watch and bet:
No. 5 Georgia vs. No. 8 Tennessee
In a battle of SEC heavyweights, No. 5 Georgia(4-0 SU, 1-3 ATS) visits Knoxville to take on No. 8 Tennessee(3-1 SU, 1-3 ATS) at 3:30 p.m. ET (CBS). The Volunteers are listedas 3-point favorites and the total has been set at only 39.5 points.The Vols took last year’s meeting in Georgia 19-14 as 13-pointdogs. Could revenge be a factor?
No. 25 Oregon vs. No. 17 Arizona St.
Saturday’s late game (10:00 p.m. ET) featuresa couple of ranked teams from the Pac-10: No. 25 Oregon (4-1 SU,3-1 ATS) visits No. 17 Arizona St. (3-2 SU, 4-1 ATS). Both teamshave been flattened by No. 1 USC. However, unlike the Ducks, theSun Devils beat the spread as 17-point dogs versus the Trojanslast week. We’ve got the Devils listed as 10-point favorites withthe total at a fat 69 points. Together, these two teams are 6-3on the O/U this season.
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