NFL - WEEK 15
by wsystems@hotmail.com - Email him today to get put on his mailinglist for plays and analysis just like these!
First of all, it has come to my attention, reading posting forumsall over the net, that week 15 is a little bit special, comparedto other weeks in the NFL. I saw a post where a poster claimedthat the home teams have the best covering percentage in week15, so I did my own research and here is what I found out in mydatabase concerning week 15.
Week 15 home teams have the best ATS winning percentage overlast 22 years (57%)
Week 15 home teams have the 4th best SU winning percentage (60.3%)
Week 15 home teams following a loss are 78-48 ATS
Week 15 home teams are 47-27 ATS as underdogs
Week 15 home teams are 3-1 ATS at p'kem
Week 15 home teams are 85-71-3 ATS as favorites
Going deeper into details...
Week 15 home teams favored by 3 pts or less are 22-23-2 ATS(NYG, Chi, Oak, STL)
Week 15 home teams favored from 3.5 to 6.5 pts are 30-19 ATS (NE)
Week 15 home teams favored by 7 or more are 33-29 ATS
Week 15 home teams as underdogs of 7 pts or more are 14-6-1ATS (Buf, Det, NO, Ten)
Under .500 home teams in week 15 are 71-47-3 ATS, 40-20-3 asunderdogs
One win teams (Houston) are 0-4 ATS
Three win teams (New Orleans) are 14-5-2 ATS
Four win teams (Buff, Det, Oak, Ten) are 10-2 ATS L10Years
Five win teams (STL) are 2-8 ATS if favored L12Years
Six win teams (Mia) are 11-1 ATS if favored L8Years
Over .500 teams are 56-47-3 ATS in week 15 at home
Seven win teams (Was) are 8-2-1 ATS as pkem or favs of four ptsor less.
Nine win teams (Jax) are 8-3 of favored by 7 or more
So, it really looks like the home teams, and especially homedogs and selected home favs have a lot of value in week 15 historically.But the way this season has been going ytd, with favorites coveringat a big rate, I'm not sure if history will have any impact onthis week's games. The reasons for nice week 15 home team statscould be the weather, revenge factor, and so on. Let's now focuson this week's games, one by one.
TB +4 @ New England
No Play.
System Suggestion: New England
Both teams need this game, TB to stay a top their division,and New England to clinch their. Both teams playing much betterrecently. TB won its last few games thanks to their defense ONLY,while New England won its last few games thanks to an easy schedule.New England though is getting healthier and I trully believe thatBrady is going to play in this game. Coach B likes to play those'mind' games and he has been doing this all week with Brady'sstatus. Brady is unbeaten in cold temperatures of less than 40,and the expected game time temperature is in mid to high 30's.TB is 2-21 when the temperature is under 40. A very importantfacotr here is TB's third straight road game with no bye. Andnot only that they had no rest in between those games, but theyalso have a short rest this week, with this game being playedon Saturday. But this could stil be a tight game, if TB defenseperforms as well as they did in last few weeks. New England isa better redzone team and that edge got even bigger recently.TB is a better running team this season but New England not onlyclosed the gap recently, but actually is a better running teamin last three games. Defensively, TB is better on the season,but once again, NE is closing the gap recently. NE should wina close one.
Play against teams playing third straight road game after aroad dog divisional win: 17-3 ATS L17Y (Play on NE)
Play against non conf. dogs after a div.dog win and before a div.game:16-2
ATS L10Y (Play on NE)
And as elaborated earlier: Week 15 home teams favored from 3.5to 6.5 pts are 30-19 ATS (NE)
KC +2.5 @ NYG
No Play.
System Suggestion: NYG
Both teams in the playoff hunt. KC suffered a disappointingloss last week and blew a chance to take the second place in theirdivision. Their running offense is great, but it will face a top5 running defense in New York this weekend. As for their defense,well, it really doesn't look good at all right now, allowing 58pts in last two games. These two teams are even in almost allcategories. The definate edge is defense and it belongs to NYG.The home field advantage could be huge as well in one of the coldestvenues this week in the NFL, and later in the season, the hometeams, especially the home favs, perform well in cold weather.KC is also 3-15 SU in last 18 trips to NFC. Should be anotherclose one with NYG celebrating at the end. The Giants have dominatedthis series in the past but these two teams haven't met in a fewyears now.
Play against road dogs after a road dog loss, opp of road favoritewin: 42-21 ATS L10Y (Play on NYG)
Play on 7- home favs after a road overtime win, opp. off loss:15-1 SU, 13-2 ATS L15Y (Play on NYG)
Denver -9 @ Buffalo
No Play.
System Suggestion: Buffalo
Stat wise, this is a big missmatch. Denver has big edges allover the stat sheet, on the season and recently, from the redzone,to the ground game, turnovers and defense. And motivation wise,Denver should have an edge over Buffalo again, as they are stiltrying to clinch the division, while Buffalo has nothing to playfor, and it showed last week vs New England. However, Denver isnot desperate yet, as they can clinch their division even witha loss (what an irony), and Buffalo, if their players have anypride left, could put up a better effort this week, after thatugly loss to NE last week. I just can't lay this many points onthe road with a Denver team that seemes uninterested in last fewgames, making way too many mistakes both offensively and defensively.But I can't back a team that obviously quit, losing its last fourgames, including a home blowout last week. However, for systemlowers, Buffalo does appear as a juicy dog, that could cover thespread this week, and maybe never again this season.
Play against 7+ favs after a non covering home win, opp. of homeloss, weeks 5 or later: 12-0 ATS L10Y (Play on Buffalo)
Same system is 6-0 ATS if the fav is playing on the road, regardlessthe week. (Play on Buffalo)
Week 15 home teams are 47-27 ATS as underdogs (Play on Buffalo)
Week 15 home teams as underdogs of 7 pts or more are 14-6-1 ATS(Play on Buffalo)
Play against road favs after a home win in last 3 weeks of theseason, before a home div. game: 25-4 ATS L20Y (On Buffalo)
Same system is 12-1 ATS in non divisional games (On Buffalo)
Arizona -1.5 @ Houston
No Play.
System Suggestion: None
I don't know about you guys, but I have a strongfeeling that Houston lost on purpose last week. A professionalkicker just can not miss a field goal like that. I know theseguys are not great athletes but that was way too obvious. Andthat's why I just don't know what to expect from this team thisweek. Another game where they will play to lose, or maybe a decenteffort to make everyone forget that obvious intentional loss.And if they played at least a half decent team, or a half-predictableteam, I would probably have at least a lean on this game, butsince they play the Cards, I will just ignore the game all together.Neither team is going anywhere. Arizona does have better talenton the field and seems to be trying to win games, but with theirunexistent ground game and horrible redzone efficiency, I can'tback them either. Yes they won last three as favorites, but itwill not change my opinion here. Note: D.Davis is a game-time-decision.
Week 15 home teams as p'kem or dogs of 3 ptsor less are 15-5 off L (Play on Houston)
But, 1 win teams at home in week 15 are 0-4 ATS (Play on Arizona)
Pittsburgh -3.5 @ Minnesota
Play: Minnesota +3.5
Teaser: Minnesota +10.5 and Chicago +4
Well, Pittsburgh got a much needed win vs Chicagolast week, against a streaky Chicago team, and now they have toface another red hot team, Minnesota. The difference between thesetwo games is huge. Pittsburgh was playing at home last week, andthey faced a team with very little or no offense. Well this week,it is different. First off all, the Steeleres are playing on theroad, in a dome, and Minny is starting to score some points offensivelynow. Their hot streak started thanks to some exceptional defensiveand special units plays, but the offense, led by B.Johnson, startedclicking as well in last few weeks. Also, Minny is a monster inhome dog role over the years, going 21-5 ATS in last 26 in thisspot. Even when they were ice cold, they were always giving their110% as home underdogs. Overall this season, Pittsburgh is betterin the redzone, on the ground and defensively, but recently, Minnyhas a big edge in all those categories, and the turnover ratioas well. They really turned their season around and now trailChicago by only 1 game for the divisional title. Many people trashMinny, telling how they are overdue to lose, how no one understandhow are they actually winning at all. Well, not me. They are winningbecause they are making key defensive stops, beacuse they limittheir mistakes offensively and dominate the special units. Theyare a good team now, for a good reason, and I think the DOME fieldadvantage should help them stay in this game and maybe even winit outright. Ben is stil not 100% and he has limited experiencein dome games. The Vikings are very confident and should be intothis game from start to finish.
Play on home teams (dogs or favs of less than7 pts) in last 5 weeks of the season on at least a five game winningstreak: 18-1 SU and 18-1 ATS L20Y (Play on Minnesota)
Week 15 home dogs/pkem are 50-28 ATS (Play onMinnesota)
Seattle -7.5 @ Tennessee
No Play.
System Suggestion: Tennessee
Seattle is the best play stat wise this week.But why I'm not playing the Seahawks? Well simply because it isa dangerous spot for them here. They are riding a nine game winningstreak, with two consecutive huge blowouts in last two weeks,and they have the undefeated Indy team at home next. And Tennesseeis a team that can surprise you at home if you don't take themseriously. Seattle lost 5 straight SU and ATS on the road to AFCteams and is 2-11 ATS in last 13 road games vs AFC teams. Tennesseeis 11-2 SU/ATS in last 13 home vs NFC. Seattle can clinch thehome field advantage thruout the NFC playoffs with a win in Tennesse,but let's not forget, they can accomplish that by beating theTitans by a single point. They do not have to win big. Tennesseehas nothing to play for, but this is one of those teams that playhard no matter what. Dangerous game for Seattle here. No Play.
Week 15 home teams as underdogs of 7 pts or moreare 14-6-1 ATS (Play on Tennessee)
Carolina -9.5 @ New Orleans (40)
No Play.
System Suggestion: New Orleans
System Suggestion: Under
After losing to TB last week, Carolina now dependson other teams as well. They can not win the division if TB winsout the remaining games. They are stil in the playoff hunt andshould be able to beat the Saints. But since the Saints are startinga relatively unknown QB (Brooks is benched for the reminder ofthe season), this is a no play for me. Carolina is a much betterteam on paper, but laying this many points on the road is notthe way to go, if you ask me. The Saints are done, which is nota surprise. This is a very tired football team. They actuallyplayed decent given all the distractions and off field problems.I don't think either Brooks or HC will be back playing for thisfrancise next season. Maybe even this team will be no more afterthis season's end. Who knows.
Under .500 home teams in week 15 are 71-47-3ATS, 40-20-3 as underdogs, 3 win teams 14-5-2 (Play on New Orleans)
The under is 20-3 if the road team is favored by 7+ after a homeupset loss (Play on Under)
Play against div.favs after a home divisional loss, weeks 14 orlater: 16-3 ATS (Play on New Orleans)
N.Y.J +9 @ Miami
No Play.
System suggestion: Miami
Miami surprised many last week by winning atSan Diego. But so did the Jets, as they beat Oakland in N.Y. Thisweek, Miami could stil be playing for the divisional title ifNE lose on Saturday, but even if the Patriots win, Miami stilhas a slim chance of making the playoffs thru the wild-card birth,so they have to win this one regardless. However, NYJ is stilplaying hard, despite all of their injuries this season. Yes theylost all of their top QB's, they also lost C.Martin, but theywtil got the win last week and I don't think they will give thisout out without a fight. However, Miami does have more talentand more to play for and they should win this one. They have abetter defense and a better ground game, and that should neutralizeJets edge in the redzone (most of Jets redzone offense came withother QB'S)
Play on home favs after a road dog win, opp ofhome dog win, weeks 13 or later: 12-3 ATS (Play on Miami)
Under .500 teams in week 15 with six wins (Mia) are 11-1 ATS iffavored L8Years (Play on Miami)
San Diego +9 @ Indy
No Play
System suggestion: None
Do or die game for SD. They are desperate fora win and obviously it will not be easy against the best teamin the NFL, the undefeated Colts. The Colts will play their starters,no doubt about that, and that's why this line is stil very high.However, in a battle of two top offenses in the NFL, everythingcan happen, especially if the dog is desperate for a win. On paper,Indy looks to have an edge defensively but the Chargers have anedge in the redzone, on the ground and in the turnover department.The Chargers were looking ahead to this game last week, and that'spretty obvious to me. They got surprised by another desperateand improving team - the Dolphins. This week, they have no marginfor error. They must give their 100% in this game and I thinkthey will. They are 8-0-1 ATS in last 9 following a loss, so thattells me that they are a well coached team. They bounce back aftera loss and perform as well as they can. As for Indy, there isnothing to say, that was not said already. Definately one of thebest teams ever. But just like many big favs this week, they justhave to win, to accomplish their goals. That win can be by 1,2,3,or even 7 pts. They don't have to win big, and that's why I willnever back such a big fav. The Chargers are 10-1 SU and ATS againstAFCE in last 11 tries. No systems to back either team, no ballsto fade the Colts.
S.F. +16 @ Jacksonville
No Play
System Suggestion: None
The worst team in the league is going on theroad again. This is their second of three straight road games,and this week it doesn't get any easier. After a horrible gameat Seattle, they now face the 9-4 Jags, desperately needing towin the remaining games in order to secure a postseason participation.Everything but a Jacksonville win will be a huge surprise here.They have three very winnable games in last three weeks and ifthey win all three, they win the wild card race.
Philly +3.5 @ STL
No Play
System Suggestion: Philly
Well, who would say before the season startedthat this matchup, this late into the season, would mean nothingto either team, because none of them is going anywhere this year.Both teams stand at 5-8 on the season, and both have their rostersfull of backups. Philly is without their three starts Owens, McNabband Westbrook, and the situation is not much better for STL either.A meaningless game, a lot of 2nd, 3rd and 4th stringers in thelineup, equals a perfect stay away matchup. By the way, the Ramsare 1-10 ATS in last 11 vs NFC East.
Play on road dogs of more than 3 pts, after ahome dog overtime loss: 14-3 ATS L15Y (Play on Philly)
Under .500 teams in week 15 with five wins (STL) are 2-8 ATS iffavored L12Years (Play on Philly)
Cincinnati -9 @ Detroit
No Play
System Suggestion: None
Cincy is a much better team than Detroit, andtheir bad game vs Cleveland last week was obviously due to theletdown spot, after a huge win at Pittsburgh the week before.I expected that letdown last week and made you aware of it, eventhough I had Cleveland only as a system suggestion. Well thisweek it should be a different story. Cincy should win this gamewith ease, but the line stil looks a little bit too high. Butlooking at Detroits season ytd, one can argue that this line istoo small as well. Detroit is flat out horrible. Stil, it is ahome game for them, against a good - and not great team, and abackdoor cover is always a possibility. They looked much betterlast week at GB than all of this season. No play for me.
Home teams as dogs or pick'em in week 15 are50-28 ATS (Play on Detroit) Non conference teams in weeks 9+ afterthree+ divisional wins are 13-2 ATS and 15-0 SU not favored by10+ (Cincy)
Cleveland +3 @ Oakland
No Play
System Suggestion: None
Overall this season, these two teams are evendefensively and on the ground, but Oakland has a solid edge inthe redzone. Collins will be back at the QB position for the Raiders,as their backup QB couldn't get the job done at lowely Jets lastweek. The Raiders do have a divisional rivalery game coming upnext, but so do the Browns. And just take a look at Cleveland'sschedule. Since their home game vs Chicago on October 9th, theyhad to travel for 10 straight games, and they also have to travelback home to face Pittsburgh next week. This has to be a verytired football team, especially after leaving all they had onthe field last week, on the road, against a divisional rival Cincy,and stil losing that game by three points. I don't have any significantsystems for this game, and since it is just another meaninglessgame this week, it is a no play for me.
Dallas +2.5 @ Washington
No Play.
System Suggestion: None
Huge game for both teams. Dallas is a betterredzone team and Washington is a better defensive and runningteam. The first meeting between these two teams earlier this seasonended in a really bizare way. Dallas was controling the game witha 13 pts lead until Washington got two late TD to win it in lastfew minutes. Dallas would like to get their revenge here but itwon't be easy, as Washington stil needs this one more. Even witha loss, Dallas is stil in the wild card race. As for the Redskins,they have no marge of error. They have to win this one, and maybeeven the remaining two games, to have a chance for the postseason.Their defense is red hot and keeps them in games recently. Dallaswas very unimpressive in road games this season. They lost atNYG last time out, then they barely edged Philly, lost to Seattleand Oakland earlier this season and needed a strong second halfeffort to beat the worst team in the NFL, the 49ers. I believeWashington will want this one more and prevail at the end, butin a matchup like this one, between old rivals, I just can't pullthe trigger. No Play.
Play against home favs in weeks 15 or later,vs revenge (road dog win last HTH) in division: 18-4 ATS L5Y (OnDallas)
Play against teams revening home fav div. loss if both off ofa win: 11-2 SU/ATS last 3 years (On Washington)
Atlanta +3 @ Chicago
Play: Chicago -3
Teaser: Chicago +4 and Minny +10.5
First of all, the weather could be a huge factorin this game. The temerature is expected to be in low 20's ifnot in teens. And that is not a good news for a dome Atlanta team,that played all of their games this season either in a dome orin hot weather. These weather conditions favor good defensiveteams, and while Atlanta does have a good running offense, theirrunning defense is not nearly as good as Chicago's. And Chicagodoes have a solid ground game to exploit Atlanta's run D. Atlantahas not won consecutive games since their bye week, and they haven'twon a game against a team with a winning record since they trashedthe Vikings 9and the Vikings back then did not have a winningrecord) in week 4. So, since then, they are 0-3 vs winning teams,and they also lost a game against a losing GB team during thattime. This is also a flat spot for them, as they play a non divisionalopponent in between four divisional games. Chicago is 5-0 in last5 home games and 6-1 overall at home this season. Overall thisseason, Chicago is better in the redzone, on the ground, and defensively.When comparing those stats for their home games, vs Atlanta roadgames, the edge is even biger. Vick is seriously banged up andwill play with pain. I learned a long time ago that this guy willrather sit out than risk to aggravate his injury. He is expectedto play, but if Chicago defense hits him a few times, he couldhave a short night.This game reminds me of Chicago's clash vsCarolina earlier this year. I think Chicago wins this one by 7-10pts.
Play against 3- road dogs after a Monday nightwin: 15-4 ATS L15 Years (Play on Chicago)
Play against non divisional road teams in weeks 12 or later, aftertwo divisional games, and before two divisional games, off a homewin: 14-0 SU (winning by 14 ppg) and 13-1 ATS L20Y (Play on Chicago)
Plays Recap:
Minnesota +3.5
Chicago -3
Teaser: Minnesota +10.5 and Chicago +4
System Suggestions: NE, NYG, BUF, TEN,NOR, NOR UNDER, MIA, PHI The MNF Play/Writeup will be releasedlater this week or on Monday.
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Good luck,
WS
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