Monday Night Football Pick
Green Bay +3.5
Under 34
Teaser: MNF GOY Green Bay +10.5 and Under 41
by W Frst of all, these two teams haven't met in a few yearsnow, but Green Bay did dominate this series in the past. Thisyear both teams suck, but Green Bay still seems to be a much betterteam than what their record indicates.
They scored as many points as they allowed, they gained moreyards than they allowed, they passed for way more yards than theyallowed. And if there was a weakness in their game this season,it was their running game, both offensively and defensively, buteven in that department, their recent improvement closed the gapconsiderably, as they run for 4.6 ypr vs 4.7 defensively in lastthree games, compared to 3.4 ypr vs 4.0 on the season.
That running improvement was mostly due to avery nice effort by Samkon Gado and Green Bay improved on theground for their third straight game last week.
So, yardage wise, Green Bay is not as bad aspeople think and they could very well be the best 3-10 team ever.The problem has been the turnover ratio as evidenced by their-15 ratio ytd.
However, this week they face another bad turnoverteam, that stands at -14 in the turnover ratio, and that is notwell suited to take advantage of Packers' miscues. As for Baltimore'sground game, it is not much better than GB's at all as they wereout rushed in three straight games going into this matchup andJ.Lewis is seriously banged up for this game and will split thecarries with his backup tonight.
Green Bay Packers led by B. Favre have some reallyimpressive MNF and late season trends that are still active, Ibelieve that these trends will continue tonight:
They are 6-0 ATS in last six as MNF dogs
They are 22-8 ATS in last 30 games in weeks 15or later (8-1 SU/ATS as dogs) and 13-2 SU/ATS after a no-coverin weeks 15+.
Finally, the weather could be a huge factor tonightas the game time temperature is predicted to be in high 20's orlow 30's, with a wind of 10-15 mph. This season, better runningteams are 12-1 ATS in games where the home team is favored andthe temperature is 40 or lower.
The under is 12-1 in those games, including aperfect 7-0 record in last two weeks and as explained earlier,I believe that GB is a better running team right now.
Red zone wise, these two teams are equal, andboth very unproductive offensively and very efficient defensivelyin last 2 weeks, which should help the under here. In last twoweeks, only 4 TD have been scored in 22 opportunities combinedin GB and Baltimore's games for a very unimpressive 18% redzoneefficiency.
The cold weather favors the Under and shouldbe helped by these two teams' styles that tend to produce a lotof unders as well. GB is 4-0 under the total in last 4 and 7-1under the total in last 8. Baltimore is 2-0 under the total inlast 2 and perfect 6-0 under the total at home this season.
My predicted score is 14-10 Green Bay.
Good luck all,
Winning Systems
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