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Introduction
The object of this newsletter is to give an early look at somegames we have already played or are looking at playing. We areproviding information we are looking at to help make our decisionand in short, give you a snapshot in time during the early partof the handicapping week.

We want to add extra value to being a full-clientof Vegas Sports Authority. Obviously, providing winners is thebottom line. However, we have a number of clients who also playtheir own picks and like to see what we are playing or consideringto provide some extra guidance for their own selections. Manyof our clients are very sharp bettors who just do not have thetime to follow 119 college and 32 pro football teams.

Please realize these are early in the week plays,weather information, injury info, and other news can cause usto change our minds and potentially buy back a wager. Just becausewe have placed these wagers does not guarantee they will be anofficial Premium Pick selection. While Paul and I communicateextensively regarding the coming week’s games, we do not alwaysshare the same opinion or play the same plays. There will be gameswe have a difference of opinion on. Some of our wagers are madein anticipation of a line move the opposite direction to giveus the opportunity to “middle” the game by placing an offsettingwager later in the week hoping to win both sides.

As always, comments and questions are welcome.

Past Week Notes

College

• Those who discount the impact of a placekickerneed only look to Colorado's Mason Crosby who kicked fieldgoals of 52, 42 and 50 yards in the Buffs' 23-20 road victoryover Kansas State Saturday. The third of the three fieldgoals by Crosby, who will be a consensus first-team All-American,came as time ran out. • Regularly-scheduled open weeks and anunplanned hurricane places the South Florida Bulls in anunusual, mid-season spot in their game this Saturday at Rutgers.On the eve of Saturday's game, the Bulls will have played exactlyone game in the previous 34 days. While Rutgers has played fivegames since Sept. 30, South Florida has played just two.

Does it make any difference in one's approachto handicapping the game? Maybe a little, but would not give ittoo much credence. What the Bulls may have lost in timing hasbeen offset by the healing of those little bumps and bruises thatbegin to effect most teams this time of year.

* Much has written about Tennessee's incrediblydisappointing season punctuated by Monday's resignation of offensivecoordinator Randy Sanders who succeeded former Mississippihead coach David Cutcliffe in that role (Cutcliffe was essentiallyfired at Mississippi this past offseason).

But what about Purdue? Purdue was pickedto win the Big 10 by a number of respected pundits, includingPhil Steele of Northcoast Sports, but limps into Saturday's homegame against Michigan State with a 2-6 record and six straightlosses. The Boilermakers returned all 11 starters from a defensewhich gave up just 17.2 points per game last year and figuredto be one of the nation's best this season. Instead, Purdue ranks116th out of 117 teams in total defense (476 yards per game) and106th in scoring defense (33.9 points per game).

* Most who follow college football closely wouldacknowledge USC's offense ranks among the best in recenthistory, if not all time. Evidence to support this belief wasthe performance of QB Matt Leinart and WR Dewayne Jarrett in theTrojans' 55-13 victory over Washington State Saturday.

Leinart was 20-of-31 for three TDs and 302 yards,while Jarrett caught seven passes for 138 yards and a touchdown.

Of course, these numbers came in first halfonly.

• North Carolina State, whose head coachChuck Amato is probably not house hunting in Raleigh these days,had a miserable first half in its 21-17 victory over SouthernMiss.

Trailing, 7-0, at the half, the Wolfpack hadalmost as many turnovers (four) as first downs (five) as first-timestarter Marcus Stone was 1-for-7 for 15 yards and two interceptionsin the opening two quarters.

The Wolfpack, however, rallied for the victoryand kept its bowl hopes alive.

NFL

Losing a sports bet hurts. Sure, anybody whobets knows you aren’t going to win them all. But you really feelshort-changed when “your team” is not even in the game as wasthe case with the Redskins against the Giants. Itwas so bad I couldn’t watch the game. Oh, yeah, the Skins werea pick of VSA.

Nobody likes to admit he made a mistake, butJim Kruger sure made a big one in discounting the Wellington Mara,Jr. death as a factor. Tiki Barber sets a personal record with206 yards rushing. Giants smother Washington.

Denver continues to look like an AFC force,beating the pants off of Philadelphia. It really adds tothe belief that the AFC is exceptionally better than the NFC.The NFC on the road against the AFC has not shown very well atall.

Paul and I don’t always agree with what playto make. Last week he was very adamant about taking the HoustonTexans over the Cleveland Browns. I liked the Browns.Paul talked me out of taking the Browns. I actually had bet Clevelandearly in the week but ended up buying my bets back.

I also wasn’t very keen about Paul’s Packerspick. Was concerned the Bengals might be madder than ahornet after their loss to the Steelers. I thought it was justabout time to stick the fork in Favre and Green Bay. Theylost, but the important thing is they covered.

Miami really put it to New Orleansoutgaining the Saints 342 to 203. They also rushed for 188 yards,their best output year to date, with Brown and Williams both lookingbetter than they have all year. I am having a rough time readingthis Dolphin team.

EARLY SELECTION OF THE WEEK - Paul Stone

Conference USA entrants Houston and CentralFlorida are certainly two of the most improved teams in allof college football this season.

Coming off a 0-11 showing last season, UCF entered2005 with a 15-game losing streak (dating back to 2003) and thatstring stretched to 17 as the Golden Knights opened this seasonwith losses at South Carolina and South Florida.

Since the South Florida loss, however, CentralFlorida has won five of six games and currently sports a 5-3 record.

After a disappointing 3-8 mark last season, Houstonhas reverted to its Hawaii Bowl form of 2003 as the Cougars areoff to a 4-3 start behind the quarterbacking of veteran juniorsignal-caller Kevin Kolb.

The Cougars are 3-1 straight up on the road thisseason, with wins over Tulsa, Tulane and Mississippi State. Theirlone road defeat this year was in double overtime (44-41) at UTEP.

Houston did not play last week and is 10-5 ATSoff a bye since 1995.

Paul Stone recommends laying the 3 pointsand taking Houston in this matchup of improved squads.

Coming College Attractions & wagers alreadyplaced:

Toledo is very good at home at the GlassBowl, quite human on the road where they haven’t covered theirlast 5 road games. The MAC used to be a conference with the biggestgap between top and bottom teams. The gap is getting more narrow.Ohio’s offense is improving, but unfortunately Toledo lostlast week to Central Michigan which should mean a focused effortfrom the Rockets. Giving eleven points on the road, however…..

I played a bit on the UNDER in the BostonCollege- North Carolina match at 44. Should be a hard foughtbattle as both teams are coming off of losses to superior talents,Va Tech and Miami. UNC is fighting to keep their bowl hopes alive.

One of the participants at my weekly handicappers/sportsbettors meeting has a system that has worked tremendously forhim the past two years, around a 75% winning ratio. He picks Northwesternas a home dog over Iowa. Iowa has only averaged 14 ppgon the road this year.

Kruger played the UNDER 54 in the match betweenWestern and Eastern Michigan. EMU has gone UNDER in all8 games this year and have had a bye week to prepare for the WMUpassing attack. I won with EMU a couple of weeks ago and verywell could be on them again.

Before you big dog players jump on Duke +31against Clemson, remember that Duke is 0-8 ATS this yearand that Clemson has revenge for losing straight-up last yearto a team that was only 2-9.

Also interesting to note is Arkansas beinga four-point favorite to a South Carolina team that justbeat Tennessee at home and has won three straight. Also, the Gamecocksare looking to become bowl-eligible with their next victory. Isthe linesmaker telling us something? For my bucks, it is Arkansasor nothing.

I jumped on Penn State when the line firstcame out at minus ten. Joe Pa’s crew is looking like the classof the Big Ten and this could be the week to expose the WisconsinBadgers as the team they really are.

NFL this week:
Interesting point was raised a couple of weeks ago at the handicappersmeeting I go to every Tuesday in that historically speaking itis a winning proposition to play on teams at the halfway pointthat are 2-6 SU or worse and to play against the teams that are6-2 or better straight up. Don’t recall the winning percentagebut it was higher than 54%.

Detroit at Minnesota – You don’t get theVikings as a home dog very often. Especially to the Detroit Lions!Minnesota gets another reason to rally, group together, and givea strong showing. This time it is losing your long-time QB Culpepperto injuries. In fact, the Vikes have only been a home dog 8 timesover the last five years. They’ve posted a nice 6-2 ATS recordwhen in such a situation. A good situation to bet on is a teamthat did terribly on the road the previous week and now returnhome. Detroit is 29th in total offense. The last two games behindQB Garcia they have only scored 13 points each game. Minny hasdone better at home, we have played the Vikings lightly at thispoint. Brad Johnson is a serviceable QB, can’t be much of a stepbelow the Lions’ Garcia.

San Diego at NY Jets - Betting the NFL,sometimes you have to make wagers that almost hurt. Witness SanFrancisco last week and to a lesser extent, Houston. Well, thisweek the painful bet is going to be on the New York Jets +6 athome over the San Diego Chargers. The Jets are off of a bye. Theywent into the bye losing twice in a row. Chargers have to be prettyhappy with themselves beating their arch-rival Kansas City Chiefs.AND, after this “easy win” over the hapless Jets, the Chargersget to take a week off and go and do whatever they want! Whosemind is going to be on this game? We think the J-E-T-S!

Last week we wrote about a “Mystery Game” thatwe did not reveal the teams. We have had a lot of people ask uswho the team was we were waiting on the line to move more beforewe released it. Well, it didn’t move any more than where it wasalready, but it turned out to be a winner, not just against thespread but outright, also. The play, as I announced on the StardustLine Saturday night on KDWN radio in Vegas was on San Francisco.

NBA
I love the NBA. Actually, any basketball is fine with me, it isby far my favorite sport. I like betting the NBA as it is an everydayoccurrence. There are many factors you need to use in handicappingNBA games. No team is able to give 100% every single game fora seven-month long season. Matchups, travel schedules, injuries,style of play, etc. are just a few variables that have to be lookedat closely.

We come out firing in the NBA. The lines arethe softest at the beginning of any season, regardless of thesport. The best opportunity to win at sports betting comes throughexcellent preparation before the season starts. Watching the firstfew weeks to “see how teams are doing” is actually saying “I haven’tdone the proper research”.

Good Luck this weekend!

Jim Kruger
Vegas Sports Authority
www.vegassportsauthority.com