UCLA (29-6)
Bdg
-3, o/u 138 vs. Gonzaga (29-3), 9:55 p.m. Eastern, CBS
by Ultimatecapper.com Staff
In a battle to find out who's best in the West, the UCLA Bruins take on the Gonzaga Bulldogs in an NCAA Oakland regional semifinal Thursday night.
UCLA, the #2 seed in the Oakland regional, has won nine games in a row after beating Belmont (78-44 as 17-point chalk) and Alabama (62-59 as 8-point favorites) in the first two rounds of the NCAA tournament. The Bruins handled Belmont easily, but struggled vs. the Crimson Tide, making just five of 13 free throws and getting outrebounded 30-21.
Third-seeded Gonzaga has won 21 games in a row after dispatching of Xavier (79-75 as five-point favorites) and Indiana (90-80 as four-point chalk) in the first two rounds.
UCLA won both the PAC 10's regular-season and conference tournament titles. Gonzaga won both the West Coast Conference regular-season and tournament titles.
UCLA is a fine 20-11 against the spread this season, 13-9 ats as favorites.
Gonzaga is only 13-19 vs. the number this season, but 4-1 ats as underdogs.
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The Zags went 2-1 vs. PAC 10 teams this season, beating Washington State and Stanford and losing to Washington. UCLA went 2-0 against both the Cougars and the Cardinal, but 0-2 vs. the Huskies.
In non-conference action, Gonzaga beat Michigan State and lost to Connecticut (by two points), to Washington (by four) and at Memphis (by 11).
Outside of the PAC 10, UCLA beat NCAA tournament qualifiers Albany and Nevada and lost to Memphis (by eight points) and West Virginia.
Statistically, the two teams nearly balance each other out. UCLA owns a +5 rebounds per game margin, Gonzaga +3. And the Zags shoot 78% from the free-throw line.
The Bulldogs average 80 points per game; the Bruins hold opponents to 59 points per game.
In the Sagarin PREDICTOR ratings at usatoday.com, UCLA is ranked 10th at 88.4, Gonzaga 26th at 84.8. In the RPI at NCAAsports.com, the Bulldogs are ranked 9th, the Bruins 10th.
The Sagarin conference ratings rank the PAC 10 seventh out of 31 D1 leagues, the WCC 13th.
The over is 17-15 in Gonzaga games this season, but 11-19 in UCLA games.
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The Ultimatecapper Pick: We've said all along that it wouldn't surprise us if this athletic UCLA team wins the whole tournament. Nothing changes tonight as we like them to win and cover vs. an overrated Zags team. |