Travers Stakes Betting

Champion 3-year-old title on the line

by Kenneth Strong, Ultimatecapper Horse Racing Specialist

Bernardini will try to repeat his scintillating Jim Dandy Stakes performance of three weeks ago when he takes on six rivals in the 137th renewal of the $1 million Travers Stakes on Saturday, August 26, 2006 at Saratoga Racecourse. This race should settle all doubts as to how good he really is - if there are any doubts that is - and the Champion 3-year-old title could be on the line.

Lining up to face the even-money favorite, who has drawn Post 5 with regular rider Javier Castellano, will be: Hesanoldsalt (15-1, Eibar Coa); Minister's Bid (8-1, Edgar Prado); Dr. Pleasure (12-1, Cornelio Valesquez); High Cotton (6-1, Garret Gomez); Kip Deville (30-1, Rafael Bejarano) and Bluegrass Cat (2-1, John Valesquez).

Trained by Tom Albertrani for Darley Stable, Bernardini has been spectacular in his last two races, winning the Jim Dandy on July 29 by nine lengths and the Preakness Stakes before that on May 20 by 5 1/4 lengths. Based on his Jim Dandy performance many handicappers now think Bernardini would have won the Preakness even if injured Kentucky Derby winner Barbaro had been able to finish the race. Bernardini's last two Beyer Speed Figures of 113 and 114 indicate he would have won have won the Preakness regardless, but keep in mind that doesn't take into account the courage of Barbaro, who absolutely hated to lose.

Still, there really doesn't seem to be any horse in the 2006 Travers that can warm Bernardini him up. Ahh...but this is Saratoga, the "Graveyard of Favorites" and strange things can and do happen. Memories of Angel Cordero on Aloma's Ruler pinning Belmont Stakes winner Conquistador Cielo down on a deep rail throughout the 1982 Travers Stakes, resulting in a stunning upset by Runaway Groom, come to mind.

Could a track bias have an effect on the outcome of the Travers Stakes? Possibly.

But Bernardini looks like he can run from on or off the pace, so if a bias is going to effect his performance it will have to be one that is inside or outside, not a bias against running style. When Bernardini won the Jim Dandy three weeks ago it was over a sloppy surface favoring inside speed, which probably made his performance look better than it was. And that was a rare inside speed bias this year. Routes on the dirt at Saratoga have favored closers and ralliers for the most part at Saratoga this season, but that shouldn’t bother Bernardini with his versatile running style and tactical speed. No, if they're going to beat him they'll have to do it by putting him on the deepest part of the track and making him work for it.

The Travers goes as Race 11 of 12 on Saturday so there will be lots of time to determine whether a bias exists or not, and whether it is going to work against the heavy favorite.

Nothing in the past performances of Bernardini’s six rivals jumps off the page to indicate an upset in the making. Hesanoldsalt, trained by Nick Zito, comes into the Travers off a solid but much slower allowance win going 1 1/8 miles that took place on the undercard of the Jim Dandy. Minister's Bid, trained by John Ward, was the runner up in theJim Dandy, and did come again to take the place in that race, but he’s only had three lifetime races. Dr. Pleasure, also trained by John Ward, made a mild move to finish fourth in the Jim Dandy before flattening out. High Cotton, trained by leading trainer Todd Pletcher, comes into the race off a narrow neck defeat to Deputy Glitters in the Ohio Derby going 1 1/8 miles on July 15. Kip Deville, trained by Richard Dutrow, is a speedy sort who comes off a fading sixth place finish in the Virginia Derby at Colonial. And last but certainly not least is Bluegrass Cat, also trained by Pletcher, and coming into the race off a romping win in the Grade 1 Haskell Invitational at Monmouth on August 6.

On the surface it looks like only Bluegrass Cat and maybe High Cotton have a chance to defeat Bernardini, and even then only if the favorite gets a disadvantageous trip against a track bias. But Hesanoldsalt at least has determination going for him based on his last race. And Minister's Bid has only run three times, leaving lots of room for improvement despite a lack of seasoning. Kip Deville's longshot chance would appear to be opening a long lead over a speed-biased surface, but there may be too much class speed in here for him to do that.

Bernardini’s pedigree doesn’t show any weakness on either class of stamina, and he’s already won going 1 3/16 miles, so the extra sixteenth of a mile in the Travers shouldn’t be a problem. Also in his favor is the fact that odds-on favorites are a perfect 5-for-5 in the Travers since 1989. Nope, if they’re going to beat him, they’re going to need help from either a track bias or a terrible trip.

It’s happened before.