LVSC Interview On Football Injuries - Part One
By Jeremy Martin
DocSports.com
This week Doc's Sports' Jeremy Martin interviews Tony Sinisi,
odds director for Las Vegas Sports Consultants, about the importance
of injuries in college and pro football in regards to setting
the betting lines. LVSC is the only licensed odds service in Nevada
and it is responsible for providing odds, injury and weather information
to most of the sports books in the state. With millions of dollars
at stake each and every weekend of the football season, the company
must know every detail regarding injury developments and these
oddsmakers must, in turn, apply the right price to the line when
a key player is out. Following is part one of a two-part Q&A
with Sinisi on the subject of injuries and the line. This week
we will discuss the public's perceptions regarding injuries as
they relate to the point spread. Part two will be available next
week.
Doc's Sports: How important of a factor are injuries
when you are setting lines for football?
Tony Sinisi: It would absolutely depend on the position. A quarterback
injury is definitely going to carry more weight than a defensive
lineman unless it is someone of a huge magnitude. It is certainly
weighted (by position)… The wild card on these things is,
of course, the mega-stars. The Wisconsin defensive lineman, Erasmus
James, who missed the Northwestern game but was hurt in the Purdue
game; this guy is unblockable and you wouldn't think this guy
would make that much of a difference. But he is huge. So you have
some exceptions on the defensive line but typically it is going
to be positional.
DS: When injuries are involved, so you set the
line according to how you think (injuries) will affect the game
or how the public will handicap the injury?
TS: There is absolutely an anticipation. You are trying to mirror
the public's perception on game lines to a certain extent. You
are making a pure adjustment and if you move a game from six to
6 ½ off of an injury, that's what we believe the adjustment
should be. And if (the line) runs off of that, that's public perception.
There are going to be situations when (public bettors) are going
to see that a starting quarterback is out and it's just that knee-jerk
reaction that they are going to (bet) a certain direction. An
example (last week) would be the Penn State game (at Ohio State)
with (quarterbacks) Zack Mills or Michael Robinson. Mills has
just been horrid. We put out a number and it may have run a little
bit off that number due to the news that (Mills) was not going
to play at all. But that's the public going with it where we are
really thinking it means nothing. Really, our job is to look between
the lines and know the exact value (of an injury). So when we
make an adjustment it is (according) to what we believe the player
is worth.
DS: So do you feel like the public sometimes overestimates
injuries?
TS: I think there is an immediate overreaction typically at the
start. I think the 'wise guys' (professional bettors) might come
in later (on the other side) if that's the case. As a general
rule, I think (injuries) are overrated. Especially in college
football, there is uncertainty in who is backing up a player.
Lots of times a running back that is out for Georgia, (for example),
and there is a mystery on who is going to play. Typically that
player (performs) fairly well and fits into their scheme.
DS: Is it true that the public would put more
(weight) into an injury to a star player as opposed to a situation
where a couple of key offensive lineman were out for the game?
It seems like the second situation might be more serious.
TS: Multiple injuries in a specific spot, that can be more damaging
than anything because you are getting hit hard in one area and
all of the sudden you are really weakened in that spot. Joe Public
is not going to pay attention to that but it certainly matters
to the team.
DS: So I guess it's safe to assume that the wise
guys are going against the public when injuries are involved?
TS: I think (the professionals) are more perceptive. I don't think
that is particularly a wise guy strength though. I think that
they are absolutely (better) versed on value. But I have seen
it also that there are cases where an injury comes across and
a line flies when it shouldn't fly. And it is hard to tell who
exactly is betting on it but it has got to be a little wise guy
money also in regards to that injury. So they are absolutely better
versed than the public. But I don't think that in our battle with
the wise guys, I don't think that is their particular strength.
DS: What positions are important when it comes
to the public's perceptions of injuries?
TS: It would be quarterback, running back and then the odd mega
star - like Randy Moss at wide receiver. Those types of guys are
just standouts at their position.
Next week Sinisi will discus whether college or
pro injuries carry more weight as well as the headaches that oddsmakers
experience when coaches manipulate the injury report. Check back
in this spot next week.
Jeremy Martin is a writer for www.docsports.com
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