LVSC Interview On Football Injuries - Part One
By Jeremy Martin
DocSports.com
This week Doc's Sports' Jeremy Martin interviews Tony Sinisi,odds director for Las Vegas Sports Consultants, about the importanceof injuries in college and pro football in regards to settingthe betting lines. LVSC is the only licensed odds service in Nevadaand it is responsible for providing odds, injury and weather informationto most of the sports books in the state. With millions of dollarsat stake each and every weekend of the football season, the companymust know every detail regarding injury developments and theseoddsmakers must, in turn, apply the right price to the line whena key player is out. Following is part one of a two-part Q&Awith Sinisi on the subject of injuries and the line. This weekwe will discuss the public's perceptions regarding injuries asthey relate to the point spread. Part two will be available nextweek.
Doc's Sports: How important of a factor are injurieswhen you are setting lines for football?
Tony Sinisi: It would absolutely depend on the position. A quarterbackinjury is definitely going to carry more weight than a defensivelineman unless it is someone of a huge magnitude. It is certainlyweighted (by position)… The wild card on these things is,of course, the mega-stars. The Wisconsin defensive lineman, ErasmusJames, who missed the Northwestern game but was hurt in the Purduegame; this guy is unblockable and you wouldn't think this guywould make that much of a difference. But he is huge. So you havesome exceptions on the defensive line but typically it is goingto be positional.
DS: When injuries are involved, so you set theline according to how you think (injuries) will affect the gameor how the public will handicap the injury?
TS: There is absolutely an anticipation. You are trying to mirrorthe public's perception on game lines to a certain extent. Youare making a pure adjustment and if you move a game from six to6 ½ off of an injury, that's what we believe the adjustmentshould be. And if (the line) runs off of that, that's public perception.There are going to be situations when (public bettors) are goingto see that a starting quarterback is out and it's just that knee-jerkreaction that they are going to (bet) a certain direction. Anexample (last week) would be the Penn State game (at Ohio State)with (quarterbacks) Zack Mills or Michael Robinson. Mills hasjust been horrid. We put out a number and it may have run a littlebit off that number due to the news that (Mills) was not goingto play at all. But that's the public going with it where we arereally thinking it means nothing. Really, our job is to look betweenthe lines and know the exact value (of an injury). So when wemake an adjustment it is (according) to what we believe the playeris worth.
DS: So do you feel like the public sometimes overestimatesinjuries?
TS: I think there is an immediate overreaction typically at thestart. I think the 'wise guys' (professional bettors) might comein later (on the other side) if that's the case. As a generalrule, I think (injuries) are overrated. Especially in collegefootball, there is uncertainty in who is backing up a player.Lots of times a running back that is out for Georgia, (for example),and there is a mystery on who is going to play. Typically thatplayer (performs) fairly well and fits into their scheme.
DS: Is it true that the public would put more(weight) into an injury to a star player as opposed to a situationwhere a couple of key offensive lineman were out for the game?It seems like the second situation might be more serious.
TS: Multiple injuries in a specific spot, that can be more damagingthan anything because you are getting hit hard in one area andall of the sudden you are really weakened in that spot. Joe Publicis not going to pay attention to that but it certainly mattersto the team.
DS: So I guess it's safe to assume that the wiseguys are going against the public when injuries are involved?
TS: I think (the professionals) are more perceptive. I don't thinkthat is particularly a wise guy strength though. I think thatthey are absolutely (better) versed on value. But I have seenit also that there are cases where an injury comes across anda line flies when it shouldn't fly. And it is hard to tell whoexactly is betting on it but it has got to be a little wise guymoney also in regards to that injury. So they are absolutely betterversed than the public. But I don't think that in our battle withthe wise guys, I don't think that is their particular strength.
DS: What positions are important when it comesto the public's perceptions of injuries?
TS: It would be quarterback, running back and then the odd megastar - like Randy Moss at wide receiver. Those types of guys arejust standouts at their position.
Next week Sinisi will discus whether college orpro injuries carry more weight as well as the headaches that oddsmakersexperience when coaches manipulate the injury report. Check backin this spot next week.
Jeremy Martin is a writer for www.docsports.com
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