Detroit Tigers (95-67, 2nd in AL Central) -115 to win series vs. Oakland A’s (93-69, 1st place in AL West), -105, best-of-seven American League Championship Series
by Ultimatecapper.com Staff
The two underdogs in the American League Divisional Series’ now meet in the AL Championship Series when the Detroit Tigers and Oakland A’s hook for a best-of-seven match beginning Tuesday night in Oakland.
At one point this season, Detroit was 40 games over .500 and led the not just the AL Central Division (by a dozen games) but the race for the best record in MLB. But the Tigers lost 31 of their last 50 games, including their last five in a row, the last three at home to the last-place Kansas City Royals. So in the span of about seven weeks, Detroit went from having home-field advantage throughout the playoffs to a wild-card team.
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But in their AL Divisional Series vs. the New York Yankees, the Tigers lost Game 1, then, thanks to some great pitching, won the next three games by scores of 4-3, 6-0 and 8-3 to advance to the league championship series.
The Oakland A’s finished the regular season with the lesser record than Detroit (by two games) but own home-field advantage in this series because they won their division. The A’s gradually pulled away in the AL West by racking up the best record in the majors after the All-Star break, 48-26.
Then, in their ALDS, Oakland pulled the upset by beating the Twins twice in Minneapolis by scores 3-2 and 5-2, and beat Minnesota 8-3 at home for the three-game sweep.
Detroit went an MLB-best 49-32 on the road this season and 46-35 at home. Oakland went 49-32 at home this season and 44-37 on the road.
The Tigers won the season series with the A’s this year five games to four, with the over/under going 5-4. Detroit won two of three games in Oakland in April. Then the A’s won two of three in Oakland in early July. Then the Tigers won two of three in Detroit in late July.
Overall, the Tigers outscored the A’s this season 52-39.
Nate Robertson (13-13, 3.84) will take to the hill for Detroit in the series opener Tuesday night. Robertson got bounced around by that mighty Yankee lineup in Game 1 of the divisional series a week ago, allowing seven runs and 12 hits in just 5 2/3 innings. On the season, Robertson gave up 29 home runs in 208 2/3 IP, and Detroit went 15-17 in Robertson’s starts. The O/U went 12-20 in those games.
The A’s will go with veteran lefty Barry Zito (16-10, 3.83) for Tuesday’s series opener. Zito beat Minnesota’s Johan Santana in Game 1 of their ALDS by holding the Twins to one ER and seven hits + walks in eight innings of work. On the season, the A’s went 21-13 in Zito’s starts, while the over/under went 18-15 in those games.
In Wednesday’s Game 2, Justin Verlander (17-9, 3.63) will go for Detroit while Esteban Loaiza (11-9, 4.89) will start for Oakland. Verlander gave up 11 H+W in 5 1/3 innings in Game 2 of the ALDS vs. New York, but the only critical mistake he made was giving up a three-run homer to Johnny Damon in the fourth inning. Other than that, he held the Tigers in the game, and Detroit came back for a 4-3 win.
The Tigers are 19-11 in Verlander’s starts this season.
Loaiza, who gave up 179 hits in 154 2/3 IP during the regular season, held Minnesota to 2 ER and eight hits in five IP in Oakland’s Game 2 win in the ALDS a week ago. Oakland went 15-11 in Loaiza’s starts this year.
The A’s will likely send Dan Haren (14-13, 4.12) to the hill for Friday’s Game 3 in Detroit. Haren allowed 2 ER and 10 H+W in six IP in the ALDS Game 3 clincher vs. the Twins. Oakland went 18-16 in Haren’s starts this season.
The Tigers will go with Kenny Rogers (17-8, 3.84) in Game 3 Friday. Rogers tossed an absolute beauty at the Yanks in Game 3 of that ALDS, shutting out that powerful lineup for 7 2/3 innings in the win that gave Detroit the series lead. During the regular season, Rogers allowed fewer hits than IP for the first time since 1998. And Detroit went a solid 24-9 in Rogers’ starts this year.
Saturday’s Game 4 match-up looks to be Rich Harden (4-0, 4.29) for the A’s and Jeremy Bonderman (14-8, 4.08) for the Tigers. Harden missed most of the middle of the regular season, coming back in September to make three starts, two of them effective. Bonderman pitched into the 9th inning of Detroit’s series clincher vs. the New York, allowing just 2 ER and six H+W.
Game 5 of this series, if needed, will be played Sunday in Detroit, and Games 6 and 7 would be played Tuesday and Wednesday back in Oakland.
The Tigers compiled a .329 team OBP this season, 3rd-worst in the AL, and averaged 5.1 runs per game. Detroit’s 203 HRs ranked 3rd in the league, but their 60 SBs was the 4th-lowest total in the league.
The A’s owned a .340 team OBP this season, 7th- best in the AL, and averaged 4.8 runs per game.
The Tigers bullpen ranked 4th in the majors with its 3.55 ERA during the regular season, and limited the Yankees to 2 ER and 5 H+W in eight IP in the ALDS.
The Oakland bullpen ranked 5th in the majors with a cumulative 3.62 ERA in the regular season, and held the Twins to 2 ER and 7 H+W in eight IP in the ALDS.
The A’s are now playing without their regular double-play combination. Marco Scutaro has been filling in for a while for Bobby Crosby at shortstop, and now that 2B Mark Ellis is out for the rest of this season with a broken finger, D’Angelo Jimenez is the new second-sacker.
The O/U went 68-87 in Detroit games this year, and 75-81 in A’s games. The O/U was also 37-39 in Oakland this season, and 34-43 at Comerica Park in Motown.
Before the playoffs started, the Tigers were posted at right around 5/1 to win to AL pennant and 10/1 to win the World Series. And Detroit was +260 to beat the Yankees in the ALDS. The Tigers are now listed at around 2/1 to win the World Series.
Before the playoffs, Oakland was listed at right around 4/1 to win the American League pennant and 10/1 to win the World Series. And the A’s were +150 underdogs in the ALDS vs. the Twins. Now, Oakland is posted at around 5/2 to win the World Series.
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