Tennessee (21-7)
-7, o/u 139
vs. Winthrop (23-7), 2:40 p.m. Eastern
by Ultimatecapper.com Staff
The surprising Tennessee Volunteers, who haven’t played in an NCAA tournament since 2001, take on the Winthrop Eagles, who are playing in their sixth Big Dance in eight years, in a first-round NCAA game Thursday in Greensboro, N.C.
Tennessee, the two seed in the Washington, D.C. region, shocked many when it raced to the SEC East title this season. But the Volunteers may have lost a bit of their edge, as they’ve lost three of their last four games. Last Friday, South Carolina bounced the Vols from the SEC tournament.
Winthrop, the 15 seed, won both the Big South’s regular season and conference tournament titles. Their last outing was 12 days ago, when the Eagles beat Coastal Carolina 51-50 in the conference tournament final.
Tennessee is a very profitable 17-8 against the spread this season, 10-6 ats as a favorite.Winthrop played just three lined games this season, covering twice.
Tennessee can claim victories over, among others, Texas, Florida and Kentucky this season.Winthrop beat Marquette back in November, but went 0-3 vs. SEC teams this season. The Eagles lost to Alabama by three points, to Auburn by two and to South Carolina by 14. Winthrop also hung tough against Memphis, falling by nine points in an early-season match-up.
The Vols beat Auburn by 16, went 2-1 vs. South Carolina, split two games with Alabama and matched Winthrop with a nine-point loss to Memphis.
Tennessee averages 82 points per game, but allows an SEC-worst 74 points per game. Winthrop is much stingier, allowing just 61 points per game.
The Vols are shooting 39% from 3-point range on the season, but it’s on the other end of the court where they have their problems. Tennessee allowed opponents to shoot 47% from the floor, and they own a –3.2 rebounds per game margin.
Winthrop holds foes to 40% shooting from the floor, and owns a +5.1 rebounds per game margin.
The Sagarin PREDICTOR ratings at usatoday.com have Tennessee ranked 17th at 86.5, Winthrop 57th at 81.7. The latest RPI at NCAAsports.com has the Vols ranked 6th, the Eagles 73rd. The Sagarin conference rankings rate the SEC fourth out of 31 Division 1 conferences, the Big South 23rd.
The over is 17-8 in Tennessee games this season.
The Volunteers opened up as 8 ½-point favorites in this game, with a total of 136. But early money on Winthrop has pulled the first number down to 7, while the total has been bet up to 139 1/2.
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The Ultimatecapper Pick: Winthrop is very dangerous in this spot. We like them to cover but not win the game.
