Southwest Missouri State (22-8)
+3 1/2, o/u 135
at Louisville (20-12), 9 p.m. Eastern, ESPN 2
by Ultimatecapper.com Staff
Two teams with chips on their shoulders collide Wednesday night when the Southwest Missouri State Bears visit the Louisville Cardinals in a National Invitational Tournament quarterfinal.
Missouri State went 12-6 in the Missouri Valley Conference this season, tying with Creighton and Southern Illinois for second place. But the Bears missed out on an invitation to the Big Dance, and would like to prove their omission was a mistake.
Louisville was a disappointing 6-10 in the Big East this season, tied for 11th with Notre Dame, but until the final week or so still had a chance to make the Big Dance.
Missouri State has won seven of its last eight games after squeaking by Houston 60-59 Monday as eight-point home favorites in an NIT second-round game.
The Cardinals had lost three of their previous four games before beating Delaware State and Clemson in their first two NIT games.
Missouri State is a wallet-fattening 19-10 vs. the number this season, 3-3 ats as underdogs, 8-5 straight up and 8-4 ats on the road.
Louisville, on the other hand, is 11-17 vs. the number this season, 8-11 ats as a favorite, 18-3 straight up but just 6-11 ats at home.
The Bears are shooting 46% from the field on the season, 37% from beyond the arc and 75% from the line. The Mo State defense holds foes to 41% shooting from the field and outrebounds opponents by 3 per game.
Louisville holds opponents to 41% shooting from the floor and owns a +.6 rebounds per game margin.
The Cardinals, like the Bears, may have been disappointed in missing out on the NCAA tournament this season, but over 14,000 fans showed up at Freedom Hall to watch Louisville beat Delaware State in their NIT first-rounder last week.
In non-conference mode this season, Missouri State beat NCAA qualifiers Oral Roberts and UW-Milwaukee, and fell to Arkansas by four points.
Outside of the Big East this season, Louisville lost to Kentucky 73-61 in December.
The Sagarin PREDICTOR ratings at usatoday.com rank Missouri State 17th at 86.7, Louisville 52nd at 82.3. The RPI at NCAAsports.com ranks the Bears #21, the Cardinals #71.
The Sagarin conference rankings rate the Big East #1 among the 31 Division 1 leagues this season, the MVC 6th.
The under is a collective 33-23 in Missouri State and Louisville games this season.
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The Ultimatecapper Pick: Finally an NIT game that we have a strong opinion on! We absolutely love SW Missouri State in this spot!
