Super Bowl XL Pick

Yesterday we spent some time discussing the fact that bookmakers were getting antsy with all the one way action that was beingplayed on the Steelers leading up to the Super Bowl. We explainedhow in a perfect world the casinos want an even split in action,as they are thus guaranteed 10% of the billions of dollars thatare bet.

Let’s take a different approach today!

The 2005-2006 NFL season has not been a kind one in the desertand across the world in regards to houses that gladly accept wagers.With teams like Indy, Seattle, Denver and Chicago covering thespread on a consistent basis, the customers had a very nice season.Long before Pittsburgh and Seattle clinched their berth in thisyear’s game in Motown, the consensus was that the AFC would bea overwhelming favorite to walk off with the Vince Lombardi trophy.

Considering the fact that statistics bear out that Pittsburghis the most popular team in America when assessing televisionrankings, the fact that they knocked off Cincinnati, Indy andDenver all on the road, the linemakers knew the public would jumpon them quickly. I mean the game is being played in the East andthe Seahawks have not beaten a team on the road that had a winningrecord.

This line could have opened at 6 ½ - 7 points had Vegas wantedmoney on Seattle, but by opening at a small number, they knewthat the whole world would jump on the black and gold. Why dothis when their goal is a 50/50 split?

My guess is that the favorite has had an exceptional year andVegas is going to recoup their losses and make some hay, whenthe Seahawks win this game outright, or cover in a field goaldecided game.

The Steelers are due for a bounce in the road, just as Carolinadid after highly charged victories over New York and Chicago.

My money is on the Starbucks stock!