Super Bowl XL: Stats do tell the story
by Perry of
BetWWTS
As an oddsmaker, I occasionally hear footballbettors proudly proclaim that they’re not numbers’ guys, meaningthey don’t put a lot of weight on stats.
I hear similar statements made by football punditsall the time on the radio and television.
I’m not sure why guys make these sorts of comments.Perhaps it’s because they failed math in high school and are afraidof numbers. Or maybe it’s because they feel they’re so knowledgeableabout the game that they believe they can handicap a team or gamejust by watching tape.
Whatever the case, those who foolishly snub theirnoses at the numbers are good for the bookmaking business, believeme.
But the reality is, the numbers don’t lie. Infact, one influential linesmaker once confessed to me that hehad stopped watching games and crafted his odds strictly throughstatistical analysis. And this is the same guy often creditedwith releasing the opening line in Las Vegas!
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The wise guys and the betting syndicates thatgive bookmakers panic attacks every week are also numbers’ guys.Typically they input stats into complex computer programs thatspit out picks, which all too often win.
While few have access to these computer programs,most have access to in-depth NFL statistics and trends that arefreely available on the Internet. Thorough analysis of these numberswill arm even novice bettors with more educated picks.
Turning our attention to the numbers in Sunday’sSuper Bowl, what’s interesting (if not frustrating) is that bothteams are fairly evenly matched over numerous statistical categories,especially at the quarterback position.
Both teams have reliable pivots who have putup impressive numbers all season. Steelers QB Ben Roethlisbergerhad the third-best QB rating in the NFL at 98.6; Seahawks QB MattHasselbeck had the fourth-best at 98.2.
Neither QB was prone to turning the ball over- both had only nine interceptions all season. In the playoffs,Roethlisberger has just one pick and Hasselbeck has none. In termsof fumbles, Hasselbeck had only four all season, Roethlisbergerhad just two. Neither QB has fumbled in the post-season.
Nevertheless, there are a couple of categorieswhere the two differ slightly. For instance, Hasselbeck tossed24 touchdowns in the regular season, which was quite a bit morethen Big Ben at 17.
Hasselbeck also threw for over a thousand morepassing yards - 3,459 yards compared to 2,385.
But keep in mind Roethlisberger did miss fourgames due to injuries, one of which required minor knee surgery.More importantly, there now are indications that Pittsburgh hasprogressively begun to rely more on Big Ben’s arm than on thelegs of its running backs, especially in the playoffs.
During the regular season, the Steelers averagedthe fifth-most rushing yards (138.9 ypg), whereas they passedfor just 182.9 ypg (24th overall).
In the playoffs, however, Big Ben has averaged226.1 passing yards through three games. That’s the third-highesttotal among playoff QB’s behind Tom Brady (271 ypg over two games)and Peyton Manning, who threw for 290 yards in one game.
Big Ben’s effective aerial assault was particularlynoticeable against Denver when he threw for 275 yards and twotouchdowns. Roethlisberger is also throwing farther - at 9.4 yardsper attempt he leads all playoff passers – and his seven TDs arealso the most in the post-season.
The fact that Roethlisberger is getting moreopportunities to throw the football, and is having success doingit, comes at precisely the right time - the one place where Seattlehas clearly been weak this season is against the pass.
During the regular season, the Seahawks allowed222.4 ypg through the air (25th overall). That compares to theirrushing defense which allowed an average of only 94.4 ypg (fifth-fewestoverall).
The Steelers coaching staff will no doubt beplanning to exploit this weakness come Sunday. Seattle, of course,will be expecting this and will be pulling out all the stops toput pressure on Big Ben. And QB pressure is something the Seahawkshave had success doing – they led the NFL in sacks during theregular season with 50.
On the flipside, the Seattle offense will likelyput added emphasis on their aerial attack since the Steelers havealso been strong on rush defense (86 ypg, third fewest overall)and weaker against the pass (198 ypg, 16th most overall).
The Steelers are currently 4-point favoritesin Super Bowl XL. although the numbers suggest the Steelers mighthave a slight edge in the game, a Pittsburgh victory by less thanfour points seems quite plausible.
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