The 10 Commandments of Sports Wagering

The difference between wagering on, say,baseball, which utilizes a run line, and football, which employsa pointspread, is as different as the shapes and sizes of the ballsused in those two games. That being said, there are a number ofhandicapping and betting principles that apply to all sports wagering.At the risk of being irreverent, let's call them the 10 Commandmentsof Wagering:

I-THOU SHALT NOT BET MORE THAN THY CAN AFFORD TO LOSELike any book, Olympic Sports wants you to bet. But only bankruptcyattorneys and psychiatrists benefit when a player goes bust. You'reno good to yourself or us if you lose everything. Gambling canbe an enjoyable pastime, if you wager responsibly.

II-THOU SHALT RESPECT THE LINE Bad oddsmakers don't lastvery long so the ones that are still around must be very proficient.A good spread should give you pause, make you wonder whether tolay or take the points. If something looks to good to be true,look again. The oddsmaker isn't a fool; but maybe you are.

III-HONOR THY BANKROLL Learn to manage your money. Thismeans not stepping out on a game just because it's on television.Don't try to "get even" on the last game of the day.Be mature enough to realize that you're going to lose some daysand win others. You can't make every day a winner but you canmake every day a loser.

IV-THOU SHALT NOT OVEREMPHASIZE TECHNICAL TRENDS A teamthat has covered 10 straight times against an opponent is no moreor less likely to cover in Game No. 11 than it is for "tails"to come up in a coin toss after 10 consecutive "heads."History can add perspective but it's an imprecise indicator ofwhat will happen in the future. Many so-called "trends"merely are the result of "backfitting," the manufactureof a theory to validate a set of numbers, rather than developinga theory and seeing whether the statistical data supports it.

V-THOU SHALT NOT ASSIGN TOO MUCH IMPORTANCE TO PSYCHOLOGICALFACTORS Odds are, if one team is up for a game, so is itsopponent. Besides, an excess of adrenaline is not always helpful,especially in sports where finesse plays as big a role as bruteforce. Since an athlete only can give everything he has, a "110%effort" is impossible. So is "taking it to another level."If athletes or teams could play better just by trying harder,wouldn't they do that all the time? Talent, cohesiveness (teamplay) and coaching still are the most important factors in winning.

VI-THOU SHALT NOT LAST GAME HANDICAP No team is as goodas it looks after a victory nor as woeful as it seems after adefeat. While recent form is important, the spectrum needs tobe widened to evaluate each team as a whole. In fact, the weekafter a football team is embarrassed, it's not only likely topractice harder, but also to encounter an overconfident opponent.On the other cleat, a team that wins in a blowout may developa false sense of worth. Remember, the Super Bowl champion NewEngland Patriots lost their season opener to the Buffalo Billsby a 30-0 score last year, a result that was anything but a harbingerof things to come that season.

VII-THOU SHALT UNDERSTAND THE IMPORTANCE OF INJURIES Agood general rule is this: The more starters on a team, the lessimportant an injury. Thus, football, with it nearly 30 regulars(don't forget kickers, punters, kick returners, punt returners,long snappers, holders and other special team personnel in additionto the 22 offensive and defensive starters) is least affectedby an injury, although one to a quarterback can be significant.Hockey, where perhaps a dozen players see significant time, comesnext in line, followed by baseball. Since only five players startand most teams rarely offer significant playing time to more thaneight, basketball is the sport most impacted by injury.

VIII-THOU SHALT LEARN THE SIGNIFIGANCE OF THE HOME FIELD/COURTLike Commandment VII, this varies from sport to sport. For example,a key ingredient in the NBA is not the home court, per se, butthe travel associated with getting to that court. The home fieldcan be a telling advantage in the NFL when weather is a factor.In hockey, the home team coach gets to make the last line change,creating the player personnel matchups he desires. The home fieldis less of an advantage in baseball where good pitching conquerseverything.

IX-THOU SHALT WORSHIP AT THE SHRINE OF DEFENSE Offenseis flashier but the teams that played good defense (Patriots,Marlins, Spurs and Devils) all won championships last year. Therewill be exceptions, of course, but over the long haul, defenseprevails.

X-THOU SHALT BE GRACIOUS AND HUMBLE IN VICTORY It's nevera good idea to risk angering Lady Luck.