Elite Eight Analysis

This is our fifth installment in a series of six articles covering the NCAA Tournament. Our first article analyzed overall trends covering the past six years of March Madness data and can be found archived at SuperiorDaily.com .

Our second, third and fourth articles dealt with round one, round two and round three (Sweet Sixteen) trends, respectively. They also can be found archived at SuperiorDaily.com .

Today, we turn our attention to an analysis of the Elite Eight, or round four. As a reminder, our data set includes every single NCAA tournament game since 1998. Our next piece will deal exclusively with Final Four and Championship Game trends!

For matters of simplicity; each article is broken down into three basic categories:

1. General Trends

2. Trends By Seed

3. Trends By Price Range

A Seemingly Simple Challenge Still Applies

Straight up winners are a bookie searing 18-5-1 ATS (78%) in the Elite Eight over the past six years. This is on par with the 77% ATS rate SU winners achieved across all rounds since 1998. But as we have said repeatedly, blindly betting favorites has absolutely no correlation to finding straight up winners.

Underdogs Bite Hard

That last sentence corresponds directly with this simple fact; underdogs are a ferocious 15-8-1 ATS (65%) in the Elite Eight over the past six tournaments. They have been fairly consistent from one year to the next, as well. In three of the six years pups went 3-1 ATS. In another year, dogs barked at a 2-1-1 ATS clip. In the two remaining years of our study, dogs were all square with favorites at 2-2 ATS. This simply means that if you blindly bet every underdog during this round since 1998, you would have faired at 50% or better each and every year.

A more fitting way to put it is that a “nickel” player risking the standard $550 to win $500 would have $3,100 extra stuffed away under their mattress if he or she bet every underdog in the Elite Eight over the past six tournaments. A “dollar” player would have an additional $620 fattening their pocketbooks. We are certainly not mathematicians, nor do we hold a single credential in the world of high finance, but that seems like a pretty decent return on capital at risk!

Underdogs That Lose Straight Up

Underdogs that lose straight up in the Elite Eight continue to be a losing proposition. In fact they are just 5-8-1 ATS (38%) which is a slightly above the 33% ATS rate at which they covered across all rounds over the same time period.

Trends By Seeds

The Best Seeds

Cinderella has not been eager to hand over her slipper in the later rounds, as lower seeds have done quite well in the Elite Eight over the past six tournaments. Namely, No. 8 seeds and above (numerically) are 4-1-1 ATS (80%) during this time. Naturally, No. 1 seeds through No. 7 seeds are a mere 20% ATS!!! The huge caveat here, however, is the fairly small sample size. Using just six games as a barometer is much less reliable than if the figures spanned, let’s say, twenty-five games or more.

As it pertains to this year’s tournament, No. 8 seeded Xavier facing off with No. 2 seeded UCONN is the absolute paradigm if the past six years are of any indication.

The Worst Seeds

The worst seeds with a large enough sample size to draw a valid conclusion are the top dogs … err favorites! In normal speak, No. 1 seeds are 7-10-1 ATS (41%) in the Elite Eight over the past six NCAA Tournaments.

Based on this trend, one may wish to consider a wager on No. 2 seeded Oklahoma State vs. No. 1 seeded St. Joseph’s. In addition, a bet on No. 7 seeded Xavier vs. No. 1 seed and perennial public darling Duke would also fit in with the above trend.

By Price Range

Just to remind, favorites as a whole are a pathetic 8-15-1 ATS (35%) in the Elite Eight over the past six tournaments. We mentioned that earlier in this piece, but repetition is the cousin of clarity.

As far as specific ranges are concerned; small favorites priced at -3.5 or less are a disastrous 3-7 ATS (30%) in this round over the past six years. Favorites between -8 and -14.5 were even worse at 1-4 ATS (20%) over the same time. If you had faded every favorite in these two specific price ranges over the past six years; you would have compiled a fantastic 11-4 ATS (73%) record!

Some Final Thoughts

Whenever a piece of this nature is compiled, we feel obliged to point out its’ shortcomings. Without a doubt, those who ignore history stand little chance of a prosperous future. Moreover, studying the past is a prodigious part of our handicapping process and this series of articles in particular is an attempt to share some of the research. But, the caveat here it that historical trends comprise only a single part of the overall capping process.

Blindly using these trends to handicap is just as foolish (in our assessment) as completely disregarding historical trends in the first place. What we see as intelligent handicapping is to find games that are surrounded with several areas of support and are under-priced in relation. This is a two part practice.

Ideally, you want to uncover historical trends (like the ones above), recent team trends, situational factors and fundamental match up edges that all align on one side of a contest. Then, you need to compare that information with the price (the line) assigned by the oddsmakers. Often times they (oddsmakers) will know all about the data and price a game correct or purposely overprice it. They do this to entice those with less knowledge (the betting public at large) to wager the other side. In such an instance, all of the capping angles in the world matter little, as they are reflected in the line which in turn eliminates it from being a high percentage bet.

In other instances, however, the oddsmakers simply misappraise a game. If the game that is priced incorrectly aligns with all, or even a few of capping methodologies; a wagering opportunity becomes available. Of course, this is effortlessly stated on paper. The truth is that implementation is much easier said than done. But the beauty of handicapping sports is that one needs to be right just 55% of the time to achieve great success. And if you are skillful enough to be accurate at a higher level than that, then you stand one heck of a prosperous future.

The ultimate point here is the series of articles recently compiled are meant to supplement other areas of your capping, but not replace them altogether. That is all for now. We will check back with you prior to the Final Four!!! Thanks and good luck!