Western Conference Playoff Preview

Party 2: Western Conference

In Part 1 of this article, I took a team by team look at the Eastern Conference, identifying which squads had a realistic chance of making the Finals. In Part 2, the focus shifts to the West, winners of every championship since Jerry Krause dismantled the Chicago Bulls, and prohibitive favorites to win it all again this year. The Eastern Conference teams faced much easier schedules, facing the eleven teams that finished at .500 or below four times each, with only two Eastern Conference teams managing to win more than 47 games. In the West, there were only four teams that finished below .500, while six teams managed to win at least 50 games, despite playing more games against superior opposition. My focus is not about the first round matchups - it's about identifying which teams have what it takes to make a serious run at a championship in June. At the conclusion of each team report, I've added my 'true odds', handicapping each team's chances to be their conferences' representative in the NBA Finals. Teams are listed in the order that they are seeded.

Timberwolves:
For some reason, neither the media nor the general public seem to give Minnesota all the credit that they deserve, coming out of the regular season with the best record in the tough-as-nails Western Conference. Folks don't seem to realize how much of a home court edge the Target Center presents. They choose not to notice that Minnesota finished the season with the best road record in the league; the exact same road record (27-14) that the Spurs had last year on their way to the NBA championship. Minnesota's fantastic play down the stretch, winning nine in a row to close out the regular season, was overshadowed by the Spurs eleven game winning streak and the Lakers return to health. And the fact that the T-Wolves have never won a single playoff series in the short history of the franchise draws more attention than the fact that they brought in three players (Sam Cassell, Latrell Sprewell and Mark Madsen) with NBA Finals experience and five championship rings between them. Unlike in previous seasons, this year Kevin Garnett has a supporting cast as good as any in the league, and that supporting cast has made Garnett the likely MVP winner for the first time in his storied career. Garnett, Cassell and Sprewell made up the highest scoring trio in the NBA. Head Coach Flip Saunders has enough size to contend with anyone in the low post - Michael Olowokandi, Ervin Johnson, Gary Trent, Oliver Miller and Madsen combine to form arguably the deepest frontcourt in the league. Trenton Hassell is a legitimate shutdown defender. Wally Szczerbiak and Fred Hoiberg both shot better than 43% from beyond the three point line, each in the top six in the league. In short, Minnesota earned the #1 seed because they deserved to win the #1 seed - this team is positively loaded. Of course the T-wolves certainly aren't alone in the 'loaded' category - the Western Conference has no prohibitive favorite.
Ted's Odds to win the West: 3:1

Lakers:
The Lakers won three straight NBA titles during Phil Jackson's first three seasons as their head coach, the next dynasty in the league following the demise of the Chicago Bulls. Last year, LA was eliminated in the 2nd round of the playoffs by the eventual champs, San Antonio, but people tend to forget how close that series really was. With LA and the Spurs tied at two games apiece, playing Game 5 at the SBC Center in San Antonio, Robert Horry had an open look in the closing seconds to win the game and give the Lakers a 3-2 series lead heading back to LA. Unlike in previous seasons, however, this time Horry's three pointer rimmed out, and the deflated Lakers got blown away by the Spurs at home in Game 6. Rather than sit on their laurels, the Lakers brought in a pair of Hall-of-Famers in the offseason, Karl Malone and Gary Payton. After winning 18 of their first 21 games, fans and the media viewed them as an unbeatable juggernaut. Then the injuries started to pile up, one after the next. Payton was the only regular not to miss extended time, but the 35 year old point guard is clearly one or two steps slower than he was in his prime. Controversy and chaos seemed to surround the team all year, and entering the playoffs, the injuries continued to mount. Payton's got a bad back, Malone's got a bad ankle, Rick Fox, Derek Fisher and Devean George all have nagging injuries. Shaquille O'Neal's modest improvement at the free throw line over the past few seasons has gone down the tubes, hitting under 50% from the line for the season, making just 11 of his final 38 attempts down the stretch. Kobe Bryant has been distracted by his upcoming trial all season, posting numbers that were clearly inferior to those that he had put up for the past few years. Phil Jackson keeps hinting about retiring after the season. There's no question that, with four Hall-of-Famers on the roster, the Lakers have as much talent as anybody. And there's no question that their substantial playoff experience makes them a very tough out - no team in the league does a better job of winning tight games in the 4th quarter come playoff time. But, much like the regular season, the NBA playoffs are a marathon, not a sprint, and there are legitimate concerns about whether the Lakers aging veterans can withstand the rigors of three physical playoff series to come out of the West.Ted's Odds to win the West: 9:2

Spurs:
People seem to forget that the San Antonio Spurs are the defending champs, making them the team to beat in the 2004 playoffs. They forget that, with a title this year, the Spurs will have three championship rings in the last six years, just as many as the Lakers have earned. Head Coach/GM Gregg Popovich completely remade his roster in the offseason following the retirement of David Robinson, and the free agent losses of Speedy Claxton, Stephen Jackson and others. It took a while for all the new pieces to fit together, but Popovich didn't panic, and by mid-March, the Spurs were playing better than any team in the league, reeling off eleven straight wins to close out the season, 27-7 from the end of January, including a 14-5 record against other playoff teams. Just like last year, Popovich fashioned his squad into a defensive juggernaut, as Rasho Nesterovic filled the big shoes of the Admiral admirably at the Center spot. The Spurs led the NBA in defensive field goal percentage allowed, holding their opponents under 41% from the floor. They also led the league in points allowed, giving up fewer than 85 points per game. Their D was just as tough on the perimeter as it was in the low post - San Antonio was one of only four teams to hold their foes under 33% from three point land. And teams had a very hard time moving the ball around the court to an open shooter - the Spurs ranked #1 in the league in fewest assists allowed per game by a wide margin. Popovich's offseason makeover brought experienced playoff veterans such as Robert Horry and Hedo Turkoglu to town. Bruce Bowen is one of the toughest shutdown defenders in the league, and Malik Rose is another savvy vet bringing energy and muscle off the bench. Throw in the fact that Tim Duncan is the most fundamentally sound player in the league, and this Spurs team will be very tough to beat. Looking for weaknesses, frankly, there aren't many. Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili, San Antonio's international backcourt, are both very young, with only five years of NBA experience combined, but they won a title last year with only three years of NBA experience between them. The Western Conference title goes through San Antonio, plain and simple - this is the team to beat.
Ted's Odds to win the West: 5:2

Kings:
For a good portion of the season, Sacramento played like the best team in the league. Brad Miller was an impact free agent acquisition, immediately gelling with Vlade Divac down in the low post, earning an All Star bid along side Shaq and Yao Ming. Peja Stojakovic became the most feared sharpshooter in the league, a true 'deadeye dick' from the perimeter, averaging three made three pointers per game. No team in the NBA had better ball movement than the Kings - they led the NBA in assists by a wide margin. Doug Christie was a legitimate shutdown defender, as he's been throughout his tenure in Sacramento, and Mike Bibby appeared to have developed into one of the premier point guards in the league. But two things happened in late February/early March to completely change Sacramento's fortunes. First, their best scorer off the bench, Bobby Jackson, got hurt. Over the past few seasons, Rick Adelman had the deepest bench in the league, but after Jackson's injury, suddenly the bench was an area of weakness, not one of strength. Secondly, Chris Webber returned from his season long injury hiatus, completely changing the chemistry of a club that had been rolling. As late as March 21st, after beating Indiana and Houston, the Kings stood at 51-19, the best record in the NBA. Then the bottom seemed to drop out - the Kings went 4-8 down the stretch, losing at Denver and Golden State to close out the campaign, costing them the Pacific Division title and dropping them all the way to the #4 seed. The team chemistry disappeared, the great ball movement disappeared, the defensive intensity disappeared and their confidence went right down the tubes. This team is playoff tested, after making extended runs into May in each of the past three seasons. But Head Coach Rick Adelman has never been able to win the 'big one' at any stage of his coaching career - Phil Jackson outcoached him in the Western Conference Finals two years ago, and Chuck Daly outcoached him when he got the Blazers to the Finals in the early 90's. Webber has come up short in the biggest games of his career, dating back to his infamous 'time out' with Michigan in the national championship game against North Carolina. Bibby hasn't proven that he's good enough to handle the better point guards on either end of the court. With Jackson still hurt, Anthony Peeler hasn't been able to provide a consistent spark off the bench. The Kings were the best team in the league only a month ago, but their downward spiral leaves them as somewhat of a longshot to come out of the West.Ted's Odds to win the West: 9:1

Mavericks:
Last year, Dallas tied the Spurs for the best road record in the league (27-14), making it all the way to the Western Conference Finals. Even in that series, both Mavericks victories came on San Antonio's home court. But Head Coach/GM Don Nelson wasn't satisfied with the makeup of the team, dealing key role players like Nick Van Exel, Raef LaFrentz and Avery Johnson in the offseason. The big names that Nelson brought in, Antoine Walker and Antawn Jamison, saw their stats and minutes drop dramatically in Nelson's system, and they both took playing time away from Eduardo Najera, a role player whose tenacious attitude made this 'soft' team considerably tougher. And without Van Exel hitting key buckets down the stretch of tight ballgames, the Mavs dropped to 16-25 on the road, worst of any Western Conference playoff team other than the #8 seed Denver Nuggets. Superstar Dirk Nowitzki wasn't reliable in 4th quarter after 4th quarter, nor were savvy veterans Steve Nash and Michael Finley, and none of the three team leaders played a lick of defense. In fact, their two best players during crunch time were a pair of rookies, Josh Howard and Marquis Daniels, not what you would expect from a team with so many go-to guys. And the Mavs defensive numbers were truly hideous. Only the worst team in the league, 21-61 Orlando, allowed more points per game, and only the Magic and the worst team in the Western Conference, the Clippers, allowed opponents to hit a higher percentage of their shots. Dallas did have the single greatest homecourt edge in the NBA this season, winning 36 of their 41 games at the American Airlines Center. But winning in the playoffs is all about defense and about winning games on the road. This year's Mavs squad failed in both areas.Ted's Odds to win the West: 18:1

Grizzlies:
Memphis entered the season as the league's sorriest franchise, never winning more than 28 games since joining the league as an expansion team back in '95-'96. The team had never won more than five games in a row in their history. They had never even enjoyed a winning record at home, nor won more than ten road games in a single season. GM Jerry West and Head Coach Hubie Brown started putting the pieces for improvement together last season, and expectations were high prior to the start of year - many people thought that the Grizzlies might be capable of winning 30-35 games, with their season Over/Under win total posted at 33 by the sportsbooks. The Grizz played decent basketball, exceeding expectations over the first two months of the season, entering January with a 15-17 record. Then, suddenly, all the pieces that West and Brown had assembled started coming together as a unit, and the Grizzlies got hot. And stayed hot! After beating the Suns on April 2nd, Memphis was 49-26, having put together a 34-9 record over a three month span, best in the NBA! Most impressively, the Grizz went through a 47 game stretch in which they only lost one game by more than eight points - Memphis had a chance to win every game in the 4th quarter, a dramatic improvement from year's past. The Grizzlies depth wore opponents down, with one of the deepest benches in the league. Brown rarely played his starters more than 35 minutes per game, and ten players finished the season averaging ten minutes or more per contest. Jason Williams had the best assist-to-turnover ratio of any starting point guard in the league. His backup, Earl Watson piloted the team flawlessly when JaWil hit the pine. The Grizz were loaded with sharpshooting swingmen. James Posey made a legitimate case for the NBA's most improved player award. Bonzi Wells, Mike Miller and Shane Battier fit into Brown's system perfectly. Stromile Swift showed major signs of improvement after being a major disappointment in his first three years in the league. Bo Outlaw, Jake Tsakalidis and Lorenzen Wright provided muscle down low. And Pau Gasol became a solid go-to guy down the stretch of close games. With ten solid contributors, Memphis was in contention for homecourt advantage in the first round of the playoffs until the final two weeks of the season. But then both Gasol and Tsakalidis got hurt, and the Grizz went south in a hurry, losing six of their last seven games, entering the postseason on a down note. Of course, this team has no playoff experience whatsoever. In addition, the playoffs are often about superstars stepping up, and the Grizzlies have a bunch of very good players, but no superstars. Add the fact that Memphis is not a great defensive team by any means, and the playoff prognosis for this once sorry franchise is tenuous at best.
Ted's Odds to win the West: 40:1

Rockets:
After several disappointing seasons, Houston is making their first playoff appearance in the 21st century under 1st year Head Coach Jeff Van Gundy. It's not likely to be a long playoff run. While Houston was dominant defensive for a good portion of the season, their sluggish offense reminded many of the Jeff Van Gundy coached Knicks - an ugly team to watch. And the Rockets defensive intensity vanished down the stretch, when Houston lost seven of their last ten games to close out the regular season. Houston allowed more than 90 points in regulation only ten times in their 52 games prior to the All Star break. But Houston allowed 90+ fifteen times in their final 30 games, not including three overtime games in which they allowed more than 90 during regulation! Steve Francis and Cuttino Mobley are awarded star status by the media, but no starting backcourt in the NBA committed more turnovers, and the duo consistently failed to pound the ball inside to Yao Ming. Yao was the Rockets leading scorer despite taking fewer shots than Francis and Mobley, hitting 52% from the floor, with neither of the two guards hitting within 10% of Ming. Van Gundy brought in a nice group of savvy, but aging, playoff veterans, like Clarence Weatherspoon, Jim Jackson and Mark Jackson. But this bench did not produce during the regular season. Mo Taylor was the only steady contributor off the bench, as Eric Piatkowski and Scott Padgett were virtual non-factors. And team chemistry here really is a major concern - as a group, these guys don't seem to like each other very much. An early playoff exit, and a major restructuring of the roster in the offseason can be expected.
Ted's Odds to win the West: 50:1

Nuggets:
Denver's turnaround this season was nothing short of extraordinary. The Nuggets were 17-65 last year, tied with Cleveland for the worst record in the league. But Denver upgraded at virtually every position in the offseason. Andre Miller signed a big free agent contract to start at the point, and diminutive sparkplug Earl Boykins was brought in to back him up. Sharpshooter Voshon Lenard and his career 39% three point shooting touch came onboard, as well as hustling backup Jon Barry. The four new guards were a dramatic improvement over the hodge-podge backcourt that Denver played with last year. Carmelo Anthony was added with the 3rd pick of the draft and lived up to his preseason hype, leading the team in minutes played and points scored. And, after missing most of last year with injuries, Marcus Camby set career high numbers in games played and minutes played, blocking more shots than he had in any season since '97-'98, an impact defender and rebounder. 2nd year starter Nene continued to develop, and Head Coach Jeff Bzdelik had the luxury of a fairly deep bench, with swingman Rodney White, long range bomber Michael Doleac and big man Francisco Elson coming off the pine. No doubt about it, Denver had a very good year, particularly impressive because of their ability to hold off the Blazers and Jazz, two teams with 20+ year playoff streaks, to earn the #8 seed in the West. Their run won't last into May however - this is not a #8 seed capable of pulling off any upsets. Denver excelled at home, facing teams on the 2nd night of back-2-backs in the mile high altitude of the Pepsi Center. They excelled at beating up the teams they were supposed to beat, particularly weaker defensive clubs who could not defend the Nuggets fast pace in transition. But in the playoffs, Denver won't get to face any teams on the 2nd night of back-2-backs. They won't get to beat up on weaklings, nor will they face teams that can't defend the fast break. In a slowdown, halfcourt style game, the Nuggets realistically don't execute well enough on either end of the court to have any shot at winning four out of seven from one of the tough top seeds in the West.
Ted's Odds to win the West: 100:1