Betting Underdogs

Baseball season is here and in early season baseball there are many valuableunderdogs. Baseball is different from most other popular sports because thevast majority of wagering is based on money lines. "moneyline" wageringmeans the odds are fixed on a $100 betting unit. For example, if a team islisted as a -$180 favorite, that means you must lay $180 to win back $100 inprofit. Conversely, if a team is listed as a +$160 underdog. That means youbet $100, you win back $160 profit if the dog wins.

In baseball betting, it's not necessary to pick more winners than losers inorder to make a profit. That might sound strange, but truth is, payingattention to moneyline prices and identifying line values is much moreimportant in baseball handicapping. For instance, let's say you play twounderdogs both listed at +$140. Even if you split, with one win and oneloss, your net result will be a profit of $40. It's conceivable that abaseball bettor could pick more losers then winners, but still make money(by picking underdogs)

However, lets say you bet on two favorites listed at -$150. If you splitwith one win and one loss, your net result would be a loss of $50. It'sconceivable that a baseball bettor could pick more winners than losers, butstill lose money (by picking too many favorites)

Generally as a rule I rarely bet favorites and when I do I never lay morethen -140. There are several reasons you should seek out the dogs,especially in the early season. The start of the season everyone starts outin first place. All teams start out with a lot of enthusiasm. All aremotivated to win. This generally favors the weaker teams, getting themoneyline bonus as underdogs. Most teams are healthy. So injuries are notyet a factor, at least until later in the season. If two healthy teams areplaying, the team getting the value (the dog) deserves a look.

Pitching staffs are fresh. Starters have not worked more then four to fiveinnings per start in spring training. Fresh starters and bullpens that aremoneyline underdogs are often the better value since any major leaguepitcher is capable of shutting down an opponent and pitching a good game.Home teams enjoy less of an advantage in baseball then any other sport. Thisis especially true of early season games, since the surroundings are "new"for both teams, following two months of spring training in Florida orArizona.

Lines are based on old information, including last years results. As we knowfrom history, teams can and do change from one year to the next. With dogswe get back a bonus (better then even money payoff) on many games that arevery close to being a toss up. Going against teams like the yanks who willbe 2-1 favorite or more almost every day is one thing I will be doing.Especially out of the gate when public money will be pouring in on them.I have done very well over the years taking back +200 or more bettingagainst big name pitchers like Pedro Martinez, Randy Johnson, and my numberone bet against man Roger Clemons.

Having a lot of different options where to play is always a must. I reallyfeel I have so many outs (places to bet) I can play baseball with virtuallyno juice throughout the year. Keep a close eye on the underdog prices atbooks like Bodog and Vwager and you will be very happy with the nice valuethe have. Good luck!