NBA Playoff Preview

Part 1: Eastern Conference

The NBA playoffs are a very different animal from the playoffs in any of the other three major sports. In the NFL, we've seen wild cards and longshots make it all the way to the Super Bowl on a consistent basis since the salary cap was instituted, with the Carolina Panthers being a classic example this past year. In baseball, even with the Yankees domination, we've seen wild card teams like the Florida Marlins come out of nowhere to win the title more than once since the last Yankees World Series victory. And in hockey, lower seeded teams routinely upset the higher seeds come playoff time, proving that the home ice advantage, and the hockey regular season, are essentially meaningless.

This is not the case in the NBA. The best regular season teams are usually the best playoff teams as well. Home court advantage is crucial in just about every round - the better teams rarely lose a Game 7 on their home floor, and when they do, it's only against championship caliber clubs. Last year, the Spurs and the Mavs tied for the best record in the West, and they met in the Western Conference Finals. In the East, Detroit and New Jersey had the best records during the regular season, and they met in the Eastern Conference Finals. It was a very similar story the year before, with the Lakers and Kings dominating the regular season in the West, eventually meeting in the conference finals, while and the Nets and Celtics had two of the three best regular season records in the East, and met in the Finals. In NBA playoff basketball, the series upset is definitely the exception, not the rule.

We see this clearly evidenced by the opening round series prices. In hockey this April, only one series opened with the favorite priced at -300 or more. In the NBA, seven of the eight series opened with the favorite priced at -300 or more, with five of the favorites priced at -1200 or greater. The linesmakers are not ignorant, and even with the exceptional 'value' present on the underdogs in the NBA, in my opinion, none of the longshots have a realistic chance of winning a seven game series against superior opposition.

In this article, I'll handicap the eight teams still in contention in each conference, and pick the two teams that I expect to be battling for a championship ring. My focus is not about the first round matchups - it's about identifying which teams have what it takes to make a serious run at a championship in June. At the conclusion of each team report, I've added my 'true odds', handicapping each team's chances to be their conferences' representative in the NBA Finals. Teams are listed in the order that they are seeded.

Pacers:
Indiana has many of the things that we look for out of a championship caliber team. They were dominant at Conseco Fieldhouse all season, losing only seven games at home all year, tied for 2nd best in the NBA behind the Mavericks. They also consistently won games on the road, tied with the Timberwolves for the best road record at 27-14. They'll have the homecourt edge throughout the playoffs, with the league's best record. HC Rick Carlisle took the Pistons to the Eastern Conference Finals last year, and has probably been the single best head coach in the league over the past three seasons - his intimate knowledge of Detroit's strengths and weaknesses could prove invaluable should the two teams meet in the Conference Finals. The Pacers have enough depth to withstand almost any injury, with consistent contributors like Al Harrington, Scot Pollard, Anthony Johnson, Kenny Anderson and Austin Croshere coming off the bench. Indiana is very big down low, with enough big bodies to dominate most Eastern Conference foes. They are one of the top defensive teams in the league, behind only the Pistons and Spurs in points allowed per game, also ranking #3 in the league at defending from beyond the three point line. Jermaine O'Neal was, without a doubt, the MVP of the Eastern Conference this year, among the league leaders in points, rebounds and blocked shots. And Ron Artest is a leading candidate for the NBA Defensive Player of the Year award, a legitimate shutdown defender. But the Pacers have a pair of weaknesses preventing them from being prohibitive favorites. First, their point guard play has been spotty all year - Jamal Tinsley is no stud, and Kenny Anderson is on the downside of his career. Secondly, the Pacers haven't won a playoff series since losing to the Lakers in the NBA Finals back in 2000 - experience does count quite a bit come playoff time. Those two factors bring Indiana back to co-favorite status.Ted's Odds to win the East: 5:2

Nets:
The Nets are the two-time defending Eastern Conference champs, and they have just about everyone back and healthy to make another run at the title. Jason Kidd remains one of the best point guards in the league. Kenyon Martin and Richard Jefferson have both developed into superstars, prolific scorers and defenders. Team chemistry has improved, and locker room troubles have dissipated since Lawrence Frank took over the head coaching duties from Byron Scott midseason - they'll be better coached during their playoff run this year than they were last year. The bench is deep, with Rodney Rogers, Lucious Harris, Aaron Williams, Brandon Armstrong and Brian Scalabrine all capable of contributing, thanks to their extended playing time while the club was battling a myriad of injuries over the 2nd half of the season. And this team knows how to win tough playoff series, putting together a 9-4 SU record on the road in the Eastern Conference playoffs over the past two seasons. But the Nets have been downright lousy down the stretch. Injuries played a major factor, but a 12-14 SU record over their final 26 games doesn't exactly inspire much confidence. New Jersey did not look like a dominant team at any point this season, except for immediately after Frank took over as head coach back in January. And that 13 game winning streak to start the Frank era in Jersey was mostly against the weakest of the weak - New Jersey beat only five playoff teams over that span; only one of whom is favored in the first round. Throw in the injury concerns with Kidd and Martin still not 100%, and it's easy to see why New Jersey is not expected to make a 3rd straight trip to the Finals. That being said, this team is being somewhat overlooked - they'll be dangerous foe for any team to face.Ted's Odds to win the East: 9:2

Pistons:
I give Pistons GM Joe Dumars all the credit in the world, for putting a competitive product on the floor while building for the future over the past two seasons. Detroit didn't get out of the first round for many years after the Bad Boys era was over, and spent much of that time as a lottery bound club. Dumars took a team in sorry condition and molded them into a winner quickly. Two years ago, Detroit finally got out of the first round before falling to the Celtics. Last year, they took the next step, making it all the way to the Conference Finals before falling to the Nets. This year, the Pistons are even better, poised to make a run at the title. It all starts with defense in Detroit, and we all know that in the NBA, defense wins championships. After acquiring Rasheed Wallace following the All Star break, Detroit set records with their defensive intensity, holding five consecutive opponents under 70 points during one span, not allowing any opponent to score 100 against them since before 'Sheed came to town. Ben Wallace is a perennial defensive player of the year candidate, the most intimidating low post defender in the league. Combined with 'Sheed, Detroit's opponents were reduced to jump shooting teams, unable to penetrate the Pistons fortress in the paint. The Pistons have some firepower from the perimeter - Chauncey Billups, Richard Hamilton. Lindsay Hunter and Tayshawn Prince are all accomplished three point shooters. And a rejuvenated Larry Brown is a dangerous head coach come playoff time - his stellar reputation is well deserved. Detroit is a very balanced ballclub, with a rotation that runs ten deep. They've got plenty of depth down low, in particular, with Mehmet Okur, Elden Campbell and Corliss Williamson complementing the two Wallace's. But the Pistons are not a strong offensive team by any means, prone to extended scoring droughts, a factor that could come back to haunt them against another strong defensive foe. Throw in a combined 3-5 record this season against the other two top Eastern Conference challengers, and the Pistons can hardly be considered favorites in this conference.Ted's Odds to win the East: 3:1

Heat:
Miami was as hot as any team in the league down the stretch, winning 17 of their last 21 games to close out the regular season. In fact, after starting out the year 5-15, Miami won games at a 60% clip for the remainder of the season (37-25), good for 3rd best in the Eastern Conference. The Heat were a dominant home team, winning 25 of their final 33 games at American Airlines Arena. Lamar Odom has developed into a full blown superstar. Eddie Jones returned to his all-star caliber form after a subpar 2003 season. Dwayne Wade would have received serious rookie of the year consideration if he wasn't up against Carmelo and LeBron. Caron Butler received serious rookie of the year consideration last year, and is finally healthy after battling injuries for the first half of the season. Rafer Alston has developed into a deadly perimeter threat, leading the NBA in consecutive games with at least one made three pointer. Udonis Haslim and Rasual Butler provide some additional punch coming off the bench. In short, this is a vastly improved team, playing great basketball down the stretch, with extraordinary athleticism at most positions. That being said, the Heat have little chance to come out of the East. Let's not forgot how young Miami is and how little playoff experience that they have. And their weakness in the low post cannot be overestimated - Brian Grant is a very weak link against the other Eastern Conference contenders, all much bigger (and better) in the paint. Nor can the Heat win tough games on the road - of their 13 road wins this season, exactly none of them came against a team with a winning record! A team on the rise - undoubtedly. A team capable of coming out of the East? Highly unlikely.Ted's Odds to win the East: 18:1

Hornets:
Paul Silas won 45 games with the Hornets last year, after winning at least one playoff series with the Hornets in each of the two previous seasons. Those results got him fired. In his stead came Tim Floyd, the Bulls much maligned former coach. Rather than improving on Silas's results, New Orleans fell to .500, needing a late season surge just to get there. This is a team that consistently underperforms to the level of talent available on their roster. Make no mistake about it -- the Hornets have loads of talent. Point guard Baron Davis has become a perennial all star. Jamal Magloire will receive plenty of consideration for the NBA's most improved player award this season, closing out the campaign with 22 double doubles in his last 26 games. Even with Jamal Mashburn still languishing on the injured list, there's a boatload of playoff tested veteran leadership on this team with George Lynch, Steve Smith, Stacey Augmon, David Wesley, Tractor Traylor and Darrell Armstrong. The Hornets are very big down low, they've got a deep bench, and they are capable of upping their defensive intensity. But their collective basketball IQ stinks - New Orleans rarely takes advantage of their matchup edge in the low post, settling for perimeter looks instead of pounding the ball inside. And those long range jumpers did not fall - the Hornets ranked 28th in the NBA in three point shooting percentage. A first round upset is a legitimate possibility - let's not forget how this team destroyed Miami the last time the Heat made the playoffs, sweeping them in the first round. An extended playoff run, however, is highly unlikely, unless the team suddenly learns to play to their strengths.Ted's Odds to win the East: 15:1

Bucks:
I'll be the first to admit that prior to the season, I expected Milwaukee to compete for the worst record in the Eastern Conference, rather than a playoff bid. But the Bucks new HC Terry Porter really turned around the malignant attitude prevalent here during the final few years of George Karl's tenure. And, without a dominant low post presence whatsoever, the Bucks were able to consistently shoot well from the perimeter, outscoring their foes as opposed to 'out-defending' them. Sharpshooters like Michael Redd, Keith Van Horn, Tony Kukoc and Damon Jones lit it up from the outside. Joe Smith and Brian Skinner provided some muscle down low, averaging almost 16 rebounds per game between them. The Bucks were a deep team, with Desmond Mason expected to earn serious consideration for the 6th man of the year award. But, frankly, Milwaukee, despite their overachieving nature, really isn't poised to make any sort of a postseason run - the team does not have the right pieces for the postseason NBA puzzle. The Bucks are without a defensive stopper, a true low post star, or a go-to guy down the stretch of close games. No playoff team in the East allowed more points per game than the Bucks; nor did any other Eastern Conference playoff team allow their opponents to hit more than 45% of their shots. Throw in a season ending three game losing streak to knock them back to the #6 seed, and an 8-14 overall record over the last six weeks of the season, and it's easy to picture Milwaukee being non-competitive from here on out.Ted's Odds to win the East: 40:1

Knicks:
Isiah Thomas made some bold, gutsy moves transforming the Knicks roster midseason, adding Stephan Marbury, Nazr Mohammed, Tim Thomas, Penny Hardaway, DeMarr Johnson, Moochie Norris and Vin Baker to the roster. Thomas mercifully fired HC Don Chaney, bringing in Lenny Wilkens to take over the squad. The moves worked, to some extent - after a 7-16 start, New York rallied to make the playoffs. This team has loads of talent, and is poised to make a serious postseason run in the not-to-distant future. But not this year. New York traded away most of their best perimeter shooters while acquiring all the guys listed above, and with Allan Houston still sitting on the bench in street clothes, the Knicks lack scoring punch from the outside. And, watching New York play on the court, it's readily apparent that nobody knows anybody else's tendencies - only Kurt Thomas, Frank Williams and Shandon Anderson remain on the roster from last year's team. Isiah must be credited for turning a lottery bound club into a playoff team, and putting them on the right track for the future. And who can forget New York becoming the first #1 seed to make it all the way to the Finals just five years ago? This team is very deep, and they do have plenty of big bodies down low - I haven't even mentioned Dikembe Mutumbo yet. But teams undergoing a complete roster transformation midseason are not likely to make extended post-season runs, particularly when numerous injuries have kept them from developing any sort of continuity or chemistry.Ted's Odds to win the East: 22:1

Celtics:
Boston is the worst team to make the playoffs in many years. Yes, the Celtics have Paul Pierce, a legitimate superstar on their roster. And yes, the Celtics have plenty of winning playoff experience, going all the way to the Eastern Conference Finals two years ago, and pulling off a major upset over Indiana in the first round last year. But that's about all that I can say about Boston's positives. The Celtics had a losing record at the Fleet Center as well as on the road, finishing the season ten games under .500. Had they been in the West, Boston would have been the 13th team out of 15 - only the Clippers and Suns would have finished behind them. Boston lost Raef LaFrentz to a season ending injury in mid-December, effectively getting nothing for this season from the Antoine Walker blockbuster trade with Dallas. GM Danny Ainge continued his wheeling and dealing, trading their main low post threat, Tony Battie, and their top 'energy' guy Eric Williams to the Cavs for Ricky Davis, whose points, rebounds and assists all went way down this year, compared to last year's numbers. Mark Blount enjoyed the best season of his career without having to battle for playing time. Jiri Welsh developed nicely in his 2nd season in the league. Walter McCarty became a solid perimeter threat and Chucky Atkins was decent at the point, arriving from Detroit mid-season. But the depth isn't there, the winning attitude/confidence isn't there, and frankly, the only reason the Celtics are in the playoffs at all is because of late season collapses from Cleveland, Philly and Toronto. Boston tried to do the same, losing 'must win' late season games to the likes of the Wizards and Hawks, but their 2-6 skid came too late for Ainge's goal of acquiring a lottery pick in the draft this summer.Ted's Odds to win the East: 100:1