Sports Betting Articles

While the title of this article may seem to ask a simple question, to a person just getting into sports betting it is daunting. If that is you don’t fret, because even the most experienced gambler usually does not have a full understanding of how and why a particular line originates.

The old saying, "It's an enigma wrapped in a riddle with no answer," aptly describes the feelings many people have about spreads, regardless of how long they have been gambling.

Yet, to be honest, it doesn't have to be that way. In fact, once most people get a basic understanding of how odds are determined, their fear and speculation about the numbers are typically replaced by awe and respect. Because, truth of the matter is, it is a very long, “scientific” process.

The first and most important thing to remember is, despite all the formulas that have been developed and hard work that goes into making a spread, it is still a manmade number, which means it is naturally flawed. Yes, it has less flaws than say a person trying to predict how much the stock market will move in a given day, but nonetheless, it has its vulnerabilities, and it is your job to find them before placing a bet.

Sports bettors who are successful are the ones who look at a handicapper's line as a starting point and then determine which side of the line will give them the best chance of winning. Your heart cannot come into play here. You must use your head and educate yourself with as many stats as possible in order to come up with which side will allow you the greatest chance of winning,regardless of whether or not it’s your favorite team.

As I said, a spread is manmade, but just how is it made? First and foremost, understand no one person makes up the lines. There's just too much information and too many games for a single person to do it successfully. Anyone who tries to do it himself will quickly be out of business.

Usually, lines are figured by a committee basis, with a group of certified professionals who have a particular expertise in a specific sport. While these people are extremely knowledgeable, their conclusions still have holes, because, as stated above, they are human and humans make mistakes. Not to mention, there are so many factors which play into a course of a game—before and during—that the oddsmakers can’t foresee or predict everything.

This is especially true in today's world, where everyday there are tons of sporting events with which people can place bets on, and each event generates a ton of information a handicapper needs to sift through to come up with an educated spread. Because of this, linesmakers are pressed for time. Take all this into account and one can be reasonably sure errors andoversights are bound to happen. Most sportbooks subscribe to a service which keeps track of the necessary information to form a conclusion and then suggests what the spread should be. And, since at least 80% of all legal sportsbooks subscribe to the same service, it explains why the lineis the same virtually anywhere you go. Those who do not use this service still get their numbers from some type of committee or expert organization and these will be in the ballpark of what the main sports services have concluded.Making a respectable line requires more than information. It takes experience to understand which numbers are important, knowledge of the sport, nerve and integrity.

An oddsmaker must take into account every possible thing which may affect the outcome of an event.

Some of the more important information looked at is the quality of the teams or participants, injuries, incentive to win, weather and field conditions, where the contest is being played, history of the match-up, what each team has done recently, and what do they have ahead of them, not to mention any special particulars such as how players on a team are getting along, trade rumors, etc.

In a nutshell, handicappers must pay attention to every detail which he feels may influence a final score. He must also determine a number which will be acceptable to both sides of the bet. In other words, will the number attract enough attention on each side. When the majority of bets fall on one side, the original number was probably not a good one. In these cases, a sportsbook will adjust the line up or down in order to try and encourage people to bet the other side.

Now, it is important to know that while the day-to-day information is used to help adjust spreads as a season progresses, the basic numbers are calculated and analyzed prior to the beginning of each season. Odds makers look at the previous season's numbers, off-season moves and transactions, coaching changes, health of players, etc. These factors are mixed together through a series of special formulas and used to determine what is commonly called Power Rankings.

As a season progresses, a team's Power Rank number is adjusted based on its performance. Thisnumber is used to help determine a spread.

Odds makers will tell you their job is not to predict an event's outcome but, rather divide the public as to who it thinks will win. "When the oddsmakers have set a point spread properly," said Howard Martin, a noted expert on how odds are calculated, "there will be an equal number of people betting each side of the line."

And, that's how the sportsbook makes its money. If things break equally, it can use the losing bets to pay off the winning bets and simply keep the 10% they made off the vig. Of course the sportsbooks would like to see more losers than winners, but that’s why the vig is built in.

In order to give them the best chances at coming up with a neutral number, most odds makers will take a consensus, and then evaluate how their clients typically bet before they post a spread. In other words, each member of the committee comes up with his own numbers. Then all the numbers are looked at and the group decides which one will work the best after evaluating all the factors described earlier.

For example, some people always bet the underdog, while others always bet the favorite. Still others, have preferences. The biggest one is that people tend to bet "their" hometown teams, so a New York-based club will typically garner more activity than say a team from Kansas. A sportsbook will then adjust its number up or down depending on what it feels the general preference is.

Again, remember, despite all the experts using the myriad of information out there to come up with aspreads opportunities are out there for the careful gambler. Why? Because while the sportsbook isforced to deal with each and every game played every day of the year, you do not have to. Therefore, it is to your advantage to concentrate your efforts on a limited number of games and/or sports.

By narrowing your focus, you have a better chance to make an accurate assessment of a team's strengths and weaknesses and therefore, allow you to come up with a "truer" line. Then you can compare your line with that of the bookmaker who also has to figure in the vagaries of the public and determine which side to bet.