Small College Football Betting
By TCSN of the
UltimatecapperForum
(Find the following lines at)
Gateway Conference:
Southern Illinois -14 -115 over Indiana State
Southern Illinois: Well we allknow what happened last week. The #1 ranked Salukis suffered arare conference & home loss against Illinois State. I know a fewwho feel Illinois State is for real, well I'm not one of them.The results of last week are no real indication of the talentof both squads. IMO 9 times out of 10, S. Ill wins easily.
This week I have them as my Gateway ConferenceGOTY. I love this setup as we have a motivated & pissed off squadwho will look to take out some frustrations & prove a point. Idon't see how they don't prove their point in a big way on Saturdayagainst a pathetic Indiana State team.
Indiana State is 0-7 & with good reason. Theyare a real bad football team especially on the defensive sideof the ball. They rank at or near the bottom of a bunch of defensivecatagories within the conference. This doesn't bode well whenthey are facing a motivated Saluki team who happens to be at ornear the top in most offensive catagories.
The tale of the tape on this game is pretty badin key catagories:
Total Offense: Salukis #1 447.50 ypg, Sycamores#8 (last) 361.71
Passing Offense: Salukis #2 262 ypg, Sycamores#4 249.86 ypg
Rushing Offense: Salukis #5 185.50 ypg, Sycamores#8 (last) 111.86 ypg
Scoring Offense: Salukis #1 44.50 ppg, Sycamores#8 (last) 11.86 ppg
Total Defense: Salukis #6 396.33 ypg, Sycamores#8(last) 454.43 ypg
Pass Defense: Salukis #8 (last) 290 ypg, Sycamores#2 186.57 ypg
Rush Defense: Salukis #2 106.33 ypg, Sycamores#8 (last) 267.86 ypg
Scoring Defense: Salukis #5 28.67 ppg, Sycamores#8 (last) 38.57 ppg
The numbers just don't add up for the Sycamores.The only major catagory they have an advantage in is the passdefense but the Salukis know this. Why pass too much when youcan have your rushing attack go wild on a defense which is lastin your conference & 114th out of 116 teams in the country. Thefact this line dropped is a joke as this game is a mismatch &if it keeps dropping, I'll keep playing it.
Ohio Valley Conference
Samford +5 -115 over Tennessee Martin
Samford: This line screamed out at me immediately.The wrong team is favored here imo. I have the Bulldogs a solid3 pt choice on the road against the Skyhawks. Historically theBulldogs have dominated this series going 14-1-1 all-time includinga perfect 7-0 @ Tennessee-Martin. The Seahawks lone win came backin 1988 @ Samford by a score of 45-14.
I know that the Skyhawks have a better recordcoming into this game but I feel it is very misleading. The Skyhawkscome into this game with a 4-2 record; 2-1 in conference. TheBulldogs come into this game with a 3-4 record; 2-2 in conference.However the Bulldogs have clearly played the tougher schedulewhich included 3 straight road games at Baylor, #10 Furman (whoshould have been ranked higher at the time & is #2 currently)& a decent Eastern Illinois team who hovers around the top 25.
Meanwhile the Skyhawks have feasted on cupcakeswith their lone 1A game being against Arkansas St, a game whichthey weren't even competitive in losing 56-7. Their best opponentfor the season was a top Div II team in Central Arkansas & theyonly won by 1.
Statiscally the Skyhawks have the advantage inmost catagories but not by much. Lets not forget who they paddedtheir stats with as far as competition is concerned. The wrongteam is favored here by far & the Bulldogs should get this oneS/U by atleast a TD.
Ivy League:
Princeton +9 -105 over Brown
This line is quite an insult as Princeton shouldbe favored in this game by atleast a FG. I can easily see themwinning this by double digits. This one will come down to a battleof Brown's #1 ranked league offense whose sparkplug is seniorRB & Walter Payton Award candidate against the #3 ranked run defense.Personally I feel the defense will win this battle.
Note on the Pennsylvania-Columbia game:
If you asked me who I would play on this gamewith everything being status quo, I'd say lay the almost 2 TD'swith the Quakers. I could easily see them winning the game by30+ I'm playing Columbia as this won't be a game with things beingstatus quo.
I was reading sports news this morning & spottedan article on Yahoo about Quaker RB Kyle Ambrogi. I found it oddthat there would be a link to an article about any Ivy Leaguefootball on the main sports page. I was correct in my thinkingas the article was about how Kyle Ambrogi committed suicide 2days after probably the best game of his career. He & his brotherboth scored td's with his brother doing it on the defensive end.
Honestly I can see the Quakers going throughthe motions. Are they talented enough to still cover by doingso? Yes, but my gut tells me they won't.
NewHampshire: Lets start with this one. This game fallsinto my infamous walking straight into a beatdown spot for theRams. NH was the #1 ranked team in the country last week & lostoutright by dd's to William & Mary.
I was not the least bit surprised they lost outrightas I was all over W&M last weekend as you can see earlier in thisthread. Historically NH has always had a tough go of it againstthe Tribe on the road & last week was no different. Now they'repissed & will take out some frustration on the Rams. Don't fallinto the daisy chain thinking since the Rams did beat W&M earlierthis year by dd's. They got lucky with that game & if you playedit 10 times, W&M spanks them atleast 9 times out of 10. They havebeen overrated since that victory which is why they were an easygo against the following week against UMASS which they lost asexpected. This game will probably get ugly as NH should be ableto double the spread on the Rams & get back into the top 5.
Villanova: This is quite a mismatch.Bucknell does not have the horses to run with Villanova & it shouldshow in the final stats & most importantly the scoreboard. Bucknell'sonly chance to cover or win would be ball control & their offensejust can't get it done. Villanova should get the easy cover.
Robert Morris: The wrong teamis favored in this game. My ratings make RMU a solid 3 point favoritein this game. This is another series RMU historically has dominatedwinning 10 of the 11 all time with CCS lone win coming on a careerday for their former QB who threw for a school record 5 TD's.They should win this game by atleast a TD & setup for the hugeconference game against Monmouth next week.
SanDiego: This game should be one of the best of the 1AAweekend as it showcases #1 vs #2 in a couple of different ways.Dayton is the #1 ranked 1AA Mid-Major team while San Diego isthe #2 ranked 1AA Mid-Major team. They are also conference foesso it is #1 vs #2 in those respects as well. The problem I haveis I think San Diego is the better team of the two & I have themas favorites of atleast 3-5 points in this spot. I am loving thefact I'm getting 5 pts with them as while they are both greatoffensively, San Diego has the edge on defense with the #2 rankeddefense in the country & I will ride the better team to the outrightvictory.
Wagner: Thisgame is quite interesting. Yes, Monmouth is the better team ofthe two. Most would say Monmouth should have no problem beatingWagner. However getting over 3 TD's is ridiculous as Wagner isa good team capable of shocking Monmouth with an outright victory.My #'s have Monmouth as 11 point favorites & some of that is becausethey are at home. So getting double my own #'s is a chance I willnot pass up.
Bethune Cookman:Come on I shouldn't even explain this one. They are playing SavannahState which means it is pretty much an automatic cover. One ofthese days someone will get the clue that Savannah State is probablythe worst 1AA team in the country. They have offensive talent& can put up some points. The problem is the defense which isallowing an average of almost 50 points. They couldn't stop mosthigh school teams.
Northeastern:This is a great spot for Northeastern as the line is inflateddue to William & Mary knocking off the #1 team in the countryin New Hampshire last week. Historically the Tribe have dominatedthis series but Northeastern is capable of hanging around withthem. I think the most they lose by is 7-10 points. I'll takethe extra FG.
Furman:Furman is clearly the better team here as I have them a solid7 point favorite on the road so laying under a FG is a spot Iwon't pass up. The Citadel doesn't have the horses imo to hangwith Furman. This should be a dd victory for them.
Delaware: This line should bemuch higher then it is. The line is skewed because of Delaware'sloss against Hofstra last week. I wasn't surprised Hofstra won asI had them last week. Hofstra matches up well with Delaware & theBlue Hen caught an emotional team who had 2 tough losses one realbad & one poor. The Blue Hen are the better team, are coming off2 B2B losses, & are prime for a huge effort & dd win. The Spidersare walking into a beatdown on Saturday.(Find the following lines at
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