South Carolina vs. Florida Preview and Pick

The Ol’ Ball Coach (you may not like Steve Spurrier, but he’s got a great nickname) visits the site of his greatest triumphs when the South Carolina Gamecocks take on the Florida Gators at The Swamp Saturday afternoon.

Florida, the team Spurrier won the Heisman Trophy with and later took to its only national championship as head coach, sits atop the SEC East at 6-1 and clinched a spot in the conference title game with a win over Vanderbilt last week. And thanks to Rutgers’ victory over Louisville Thursday night, the one-loss Gators are as much in the hunt for a berth in the national championship game as anybody.

South Carolina, Spurrier’s newest challenge, is tied for fourth place in the SEC East at 3-4, and could use a big win to secure a bowl berth.

The Gamecocks beat Florida last season 30-22 in Columbia, breaking a 14-game losing streak to the Gators that stretched back to 1939! SC grabbed a 20-3 first-half lead, but Florida rallied to pull to within 20-19 in the 3rd quarter. South Carolina, however, held on for the emotional victory.

The ‘Cocks are 5-3 against the spread this season, and are 3-0 ATS on the road, with outright wins at Mississippi State, Kentucky and Vanderbilt, all as favorites.

The Gators are just 3-6 vs. the numbers this season, and 3-3 ATS at home.

These two teams have played five common opponents this season; Florida is 4-1 in those games, with wins over Tennessee 21-20, Vanderbilt 25-19, Kentucky 26-7 and Georgia 21-14, and a 27-17 loss at Auburn (their only defeat this season); Meanwhile, South Carolina is 2-3 against those teams, having beaten Vanderbilt 31-13 and Kentucky 24-17 while falling to Tennessee 31-24, Auburn 24-17 and Georgia 18-0.

The Gamecocks are getting outrushed by a 152-132 yards-per-game average, while the Gators are outrushing their opponents by a 150-70 YPG margin.

SC has had to juggle the QB position this season. Blake Mitchell, who started 11 games for the ‘Cocks last season, was expected to be the starter this season, but got suspended. Syvelle Newton filled in admirably for a while, but got pulled last week for Mitchell, who rallied SC from 26-6 down to Arkansas to 26-20 early in the fourth quarter. But then he threw an interception with five minutes to go, and the Gamecocks didn’t get another chance.

On the season, SC QBs have completed 60% of their passes for a 14/9 TD/INT ratio.

Florida has played two QBs this season, although senior Chris Leak, who’s made 42 starts in his collegiate career, has taken the vast majority of snaps. So far this season, Leak has completed 63% of his passes and owns a 17/10 TD/INT ratio.

The Sagarin PREDICTOR ratings rank Florida 11th at 86.5, South Carolina 41st at 76.5.

The O/U is 5-3 in Gamecocks games this season, 3-6 in Gators games.

Florida opened up as an 11-point home favorite for Saturday’s game, with a total of 43. The Gators have been bet up a bit, to 13 at some sportsbooks around the Interweb, as has the total.