Red Sox vs Yankees Preview, Odds, Trends, & Free Pick [9/3/17]

Boston (77-59) at NY Yankees (72-63)
When: Sunday, September 3rd 2017
Where: Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY
Time: 7:35 ET | TV: ESPN
Opening Odds: Boston -133/7

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We have a terrific pitching matchup in the finale of the Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees four-game series on ESPN’s Sunday Night Baseball. The Yankees will look to take three of four when they send their ace Luis Severino to the mound against Chris Sale – the favorite to take home this year’s AL Cy Young Award. New York cut Boston’s lead in the AL East to 3.5 games on Saturday with a 5-1 victory as Matt Holliday smashed a three-run homer in his second game back after missing a month with a back injury. The Yankees could use a jolt of power as slugger Aaron Judge continues to struggle, going 0-for-4 on Saturday and is homerless in his last 15 games. Boston is already guaranteed a winning road trip (4-2) as they’ll head back home on Monday to begin a nine-game homestand. Shortstop Xander Bogaerts, who is 2-for-23 with 10 strikeouts in his last six games, has been out of the starting lineup the last two days. Center fielder Jackie Bradley Jr. (thumb) came off the DL on Saturday and went 1-for-3. The Yankees once had a comfortable lead in the AL Wild Card race, but the Minnesota Twins are right on their heels. Yankees OF Aaron Hicks (oblique tightness) left Saturday’s game and is day-to-day.

Pitchers: Red Sox – Chris Sale (15-6, 2.77 ERA) | Yankees – Luis Severino (11-6, 3.14)

Sale is coming off a wonderful outing performance against the Blue Jays, striking out 11 over seven scoreless innings, ending a three-star winless streak. Sale leads the majors with a whopping 264 strikeouts and is 10 away from matching his career high, set with the Chicago White Sox in 2015. He owns a solid 2.12 ERA and 44 strikeouts in 29.2 innings against New York this season but is just 0-2 in four outings due to poor run support.

Severino is approaching 200 strikeouts (192) and recorded nine of them in just 6.2 innings against Cleveland on Monday, but took the loss because he surrendered three home runs. Severino was charged with four runs on four hits and three walks in that outing after surrendering a total of one earned run in his previous two starts. His worst start of the season came at home against Boston on August 12th, when he was tagged for 10 runs in 4.1 innings.

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Sale has been really good against New York this season, but the opposing pitcher has stepped-up their game against the lanky lefty. I expect Severino to be on and New York tag another loss on Sale. Don’t forget there’s more football on tonight as well. West Virginia and Virginia Tech will battle in Washington, DC.

Pick: Yankees +125

BETTING TRENDS:

  • Red Sox are 4-0 in their last 4 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
  • Red Sox are 4-1 in their last 5 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
  • Red Sox are 4-1 in their last 5 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
  • Red Sox are 9-3 in their last 12 games following a loss.
  • Red Sox are 8-3 in their last 11 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
  • Red Sox are 15-6 in their last 21 games vs. a right-handed starter.
  • Red Sox are 9-4 in their last 13 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
  • Red Sox are 11-5 in their last 16 road games.
  • Red Sox are 11-5 in their last 16 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
  • Red Sox are 1-6 in their last 7 games on grass.
  • Red Sox are 5-0 in Sale’s last 5 starts when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
  • Red Sox are 6-1 in Sale’s last 7 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
  • Red Sox are 5-1 in Sale’s last 6 road starts.
  • Red Sox are 4-1 in Sale’s last 5 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
  • Red Sox are 4-1 in Sale’s last 5 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
  • Red Sox are 11-3 in Sale’s last 14 starts with 4 days of rest.
  • Red Sox are 6-2 in Sale’s last 8 starts.
  • Red Sox are 13-5 in Sale’s last 18 starts on grass.
  • Red Sox are 7-3 in Sale’s last 10 starts vs. American League East.
  • Yankees are 5-2 in their last 7 games vs. a left-handed starter.
  • Yankees are 11-26 in their last 37 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
  • Yankees are 4-10 in their last 14 during game 4 of a series.
  • Yankees are 2-5 in their last 7 games following a win.
  • Yankees are 1-4 in their last 5 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
  • Yankees are 1-4 in their last 5 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
  • Yankees are 4-0 in Severino’s last 4 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
  • Yankees are 4-1 in Severino’s last 5 starts during game 4 of a series.
  • Yankees are 4-1 in Severino’s last 5 starts with 5 days of rest.
  • Yankees are 8-2 in Severino’s last 10 starts.
  • Yankees are 8-2 in Severino’s last 10 starts on grass.
  • Yankees are 9-3 in Severino’s last 12 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Yankees are 5-2 in Severino’s last 7 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Yankees are 5-2 in Severino’s last 7 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
  • Yankees are 5-13 in Severino’s last 18 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
  • Yankees are 2-6 in Severino’s last 8 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
  • Under is 5-0 in Red Sox last 5 overall.
  • Under is 5-0 in Red Sox last 5 road games.
  • Under is 5-0 in Red Sox last 5 on grass.
  • Under is 8-0 in Red Sox last 8 Sunday games.
  • Under is 4-0 in Red Sox last 4 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
  • Under is 5-0 in Red Sox last 5 vs. American League East.
  • Under is 4-0 in Red Sox last 4 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
  • Under is 5-0 in Red Sox last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
  • Under is 7-1 in Red Sox last 8 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
  • Under is 4-1 in Red Sox last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Under is 4-1 in Red Sox last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Under is 4-0 in Sale’s last 4 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
  • Under is 7-0 in Sale’s last 7 starts vs. American League East.
  • Under is 4-0 in Sale’s last 4 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
  • Under is 5-1 in Sale’s last 6 starts with 4 days of rest.
  • Under is 5-1 in Sale’s last 6 starts after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
  • Under is 4-1 in Sale’s last 5 road starts.
  • Under is 4-1 in Sale’s last 5 starts overall.
  • Under is 6-2 in Sale’s last 8 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
  • Under is 6-2 in Sale’s last 8 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Under is 5-2 in Sale’s last 7 starts when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
  • Under is 5-0 in Yankees last 5 vs. American League East.
  • Under is 4-1 in Yankees last 5 overall.
  • Under is 4-1 in Yankees last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
  • Under is 4-1 in Yankees last 5 on grass.
  • Over is 4-1 in Yankees last 5 games following a win.
  • Under is 4-1 in Yankees last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Under is 4-1 in Yankees last 5 home games.
  • Under is 4-1 in Yankees last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Over is 5-2-1 in Yankees last 8 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
  • Under is 12-5-1 in Yankees last 18 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
  • Under is 7-3 in Yankees last 10 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
  • Over is 4-0 in Severino’s last 4 starts with 5 days of rest.
  • Over is 4-0 in Severino’s last 4 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
  • Over is 5-0 in Severino’s last 5 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
  • Over is 7-0 in Severino’s last 7 starts on grass.
  • Over is 4-0 in Severino’s last 4 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
  • Over is 7-0 in Severino’s last 7 starts overall.
  • Over is 4-0 in Severino’s last 4 home starts.
  • Over is 5-0 in Severino’s last 5 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
  • Over is 5-1 in Severino’s last 6 Sunday starts.
  • Over is 4-1 in Severino’s last 5 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Over is 8-2 in Severino’s last 10 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Over is 5-2 in Severino’s last 7 starts vs. American League East.
  • Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in New York.
  • Under is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings.
  • Under is 4-0 in Sale’s last 4 starts vs. Yankees.
  • Under is 5-1 in Severino’s last 6 starts vs. Red Sox.
  • Red Sox are 4-9 in the last 13 meetings in New York.

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