Baltimore Ravens (9-2) +3, O/U 41 at Cincinnati Bengals (6-5), 8 p.m. Eastern Thursday
by Ultimatecapper.com Staff
The Baltimore Ravens, winners of five straight games, visit the Cincinnati Bengals in an AFC North Division clash Thursday night at Paul Brown Stadium in the Queen City.
Baltimore, at 9-2, sits atop the AFC North, three games ahead of second-place Cincinnati, and can clinch the division title with a victory Thursday night.
The Bengals, meanwhile, aren’t just trying to make up ground on the Ravens. Cincy also sits a game back of Kansas City and Denver for the 5th and 6th AFC playoff spots.
Baltimore, as mentioned above, has won five games in a row, including a 27-0 whitewashing of the Pittsburgh Steelers last week as three-point home favorites.
The Bengals had lost five of six games before winning their last two, including a 30-0 blanking of the Browns in Cleveland last week as three-point road chalk.
The Ravens beat Cincinnati 25 days ago 26-20 as three-point home favorites. Baltimore, thanks to a couple of early Bengals turnovers, jumped out to a 17-0 lead and held on from there. The Ravens outrushed Cincy 129-92 and held the ball for 37 minutes. The game crawled over its posted total of 41 on a couple of late field goals.
On the season, Baltimore is 7-4 against the spread, and 4-1 straight up but just 2-3 ATS on the road.
The Bengals are 5-5-1 vs. the numbers this season, and only 2-3 SU and 1-3-1 ATS at home.
These two teams have played seven common opponents so far this season. The Ravens have beaten Cleveland (15-14), Pittsburgh (27-0), New Orleans (35-22), Atlanta (24-10), San Diego (16-13) and Tampa Bay (27-0), and lost to Carolina (23-21). Meanwhile, Cincinnati has defeated the Browns twice (30-0 and 34-17), the Steelers (28-20), the Saints (31-16) and the Panthers (17-14), but has lost to the Falcons (29-27), the Chargers (49-41) and the Buccaneers (14-13).
Statistically speaking:
- Baltimore is outrushing opponents by a 100-77 average yards-per-game margin, while the Bengals are getting outrushed by a 117-101 YPG average.
- Cincinnati’s offense ranks 8th in the league with 347 total yards per game. The Ravens rank 25th at 302 YPG.
- But Baltimore ranks 2nd in the NFL on defense at 265 yards allowed per game, while the Bengals rank 31st at 362 YAPG.
- The Ravens rank 1st in the league in turnover margin at +15 and second in average time-of-possession at 32:37. Cincy ranks 6th in TO margin at +8 but only 26th in TOP at 28:37.
- The Baltimore offense ranks 11th in the league by converting 40.5% of 3rd downs into first downs, while the Bengals defense ranks 22nd by allowing opponents to convert 3rd downs at a 41% rate.
- The Cincinnati offense ranks 22nd in the league with a 35% third-down conversion rate, while the Ravens defense ranks 3rd by holding foes to a 29% third-down success rate.
Baltimore QB Steve McNair owns an 11/9 TD/INT ratio this season and a 79.9 passing rating.
Bengals QB Carson Palmer owns a 21/8 TD/INT ratio and a 99.9 passing rating.
The O/U is 4-6-1 in Ravens games this season, 6-5 in Cincinnati games.
The Sagarin PREDICTOR ratings at USAToday.com rank the Ravens 7th at 27.3, Cincy 8th at 23.7.
The Bengals opened up as two-point favorites for Thursday’s game, with a total of 43 ½. Cincy has since been bet up a bit, to three at most books, while the total has dropped a couple of points.
Weather could be a factor Thursday night, as forecasts call for a good chance of rain and gusty winds.
The Ultimatecapper Pick: We like the Ravens and the points.
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