Rangers vs Astros Preview, Odds, Trends, & Free Pick – [6/12/17]

Texas (30-32) at Houston (44-20)
When: Monday, June 12th 2017
Where: Minute Maid Park, Houston, TX
Time: 8:10 ET | TV: FSN Southwest, ROOT Houston
Opening Odds: Houston -135/9

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The Houston Astros will look to rebound from a rare series loss over the weekend when they open a three-game set with the Texas Rangers on Monday night. Houston dropped two of three to the Angels for their first series loss against an AL West opponent. The Astros are still 21-8 against division foes and have the major’s best record at 44-20. Houston has lost four of six overall after an 11-game winning streak that included a three-game sweep of Texas to improve their record to 6-1 in the season series. Texas (30-32) is climbing back towards .500 and is coming off an impressive series sweep of National League East-leading Washington, in which it outscored the Nationals 16-6 and beat reigning NL Cy Young Award Max Scherzer on Sunday. Texas might be way behind Houston in the division standings, but are right in the thick of the Wild Card race – just two games behind Tampa Bay. Yu Darvish will try to keep the momentum going while the Astros welcome right-hander Joe Musgrove back off the disabled list.

Pitchers: Rangers – Yu Darvish (5-4, 3.18 ERA) | Astros – Joe Musgrove (4-4, 4.89)

Darvish is 0-2 with a 4.42 ERA over his last three starts but is coming off a solid outing on Wednesday against the New York Mets while receiving a no-decision. Darvish allowed three runs and just three hits in 7+ innings while striking out nine and walking one but Texas dropped the game 4-3. Darvish’s previous start came against Houston on June 2nd, and he took the loss while surrendering three runs and seven hits in five innings.

Musgrove (shoulder) is returning from the 10-day DL and making his first start since May 26th, when he threw seven scoreless innings in a win over Baltimore while striking out six and not walking a batter. Musgrove has allowed two or fewer earned runs in four of his last six starts and one of those other two starts did not go well against Texas. The Rangers hit Musgrove for five runs – four earned – on five hits and three walks over four innings to suffer the loss on May 4th.

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The Rangers are a streaky team and right now, they’re on a roll after beating the Nationals all weekend. They have their best pitcher on the mound tonight against a guy coming off the DL and a team that has lost four of six. I’ll take a shot with Texas tonight to keep our MLB Free Picks rolling.

Pick: Rangers +115

W/L TRENDS

Texas
  • Rangers are 7-15 in their last 22 vs. American League West.
  • Rangers are 5-11 in their last 16 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
  • Rangers are 5-11 in their last 16 overall.
  • Rangers are 4-9 in their last 13 games vs. a right-handed starter.
  • Rangers are 4-9 in their last 13 games on grass.
  • Rangers are 3-8 in their last 11 vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Rangers are 1-4 in their last 5 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
  • Rangers are 0-4 in their last 4 Monday games.
  • Rangers are 5-1 in Darvish’s last 6 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
  • Rangers are 7-2 in Darvish’s last 9 road starts.
  • Rangers are 6-2 in Darvish’s last 8 starts during game 1 of a series.
  • Rangers are 9-3 in Darvish’s last 12 starts with 4 days of rest.
  • Rangers are 6-2 in Darvish’s last 8 starts on grass.
Houston
  • Astros are 6-0 in their last 6 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
  • Astros are 6-0 in their last 6 Monday games.
  • Astros are 6-1 in their last 7 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
  • Astros are 5-1 in their last 6 home games.
  • Astros are 16-5 in their last 21 during game 1 of a series.
  • Astros are 21-7 in their last 28 vs. American League West.
  • Astros are 9-3 in their last 12 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.
  • Astros are 38-14 in their last 52 games on grass.
  • Astros are 40-15 in their last 55 overall.
  • Astros are 37-15 in their last 52 games vs. a right-handed starter.
  • Astros are 37-16 in their last 53 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
  • Astros are 53-23 in their last 76 vs. a team with a losing record.
  • Astros are 2-5 in Musgrove’s last 7 home starts.
  • Astros are 1-4 in Musgrove’s last 5 home starts vs. a team with a losing record.
  • Astros are 1-4 in Musgrove’s last 5 starts vs. American League West.

OU TRENDS

Texas
  • Under is 4-0 in Rangers last 4 road games.
  • Under is 4-0 in Rangers last 4 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
  • Under is 4-1 in Rangers last 5 overall.
  • Under is 4-1 in Rangers last 5 on grass.
  • Under is 4-1 in Rangers last 5 Monday games.
  • Over is 4-1-1 in Rangers last 6 during game 1 of a series.
  • Over is 3-1-1 in Rangers last 5 vs. American League West.
  • Over is 27-10-2 in Rangers last 39 vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Under is 5-0 in Darvish’s last 5 starts with 4 days of rest.
  • Under is 4-0-1 in Darvish’s last 5 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
  • Under is 5-0-1 in Darvish’s last 6 starts on grass.
  • Under is 4-0 in Darvish’s last 4 road starts.
  • Under is 6-0-1 in Darvish’s last 7 starts overall.
  • Over is 5-1-3 in Darvish’s last 9 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Under is 5-1-2 in Darvish’s last 8 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Under is 4-1-1 in Darvish’s last 6 starts during game 1 of a series.
  • Under is 3-1-2 in Darvish’s last 6 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
Houston
  • Over is 2-0-2 in Astros last 4 during game 1 of a series.
  • Over is 5-1-1 in Astros last 7 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
  • Over is 5-1 in Astros last 6 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.
  • Under is 16-4-1 in Astros last 21 Monday games.
  • Over is 3-1-1 in Astros last 5 vs. a team with a losing record.
  • Over is 6-2-1 in Astros last 9 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
  • Over is 5-2-3 in Astros last 10 games vs. a right-handed starter.
  • Over is 7-3-3 in Astros last 13 overall.
  • Over is 7-3-3 in Astros last 13 on grass.
  • Under is 6-1 in Musgrove’s last 7 home starts vs. a team with a losing record.
  • Under is 6-2 in Musgrove’s last 8 home starts.
  • Under is 5-2 in Musgrove’s last 7 starts vs. American League West.
  • Under is 7-3 in Musgrove’s last 10 starts vs. a team with a losing record.

HEAD TO HEAD

  • Over is 3-0-1 in Musgrove’s last 4 starts vs. Rangers.
  • Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Houston.
  • Over is 4-1-1 in the last 6 meetings.
  • Rangers are 4-1 in Darvish’s last 5 road starts vs. Astros.
  • Over is 3-1-2 in Darvish’s last 6 starts vs. Astros.
  • Rangers are 73-34 in the last 107 meetings.
  • Rangers are 1-4 in the last 5 meetings in Houston.
  • Rangers are 1-5 in Darvish’s last 6 starts vs. Astros.

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