Profitable Horse Handicapping

By Kenneth Strong

Betting horses is a lot easier (and more profitable) if you know what to look for during the running of race. Not because it will change the outcome of the race you’re watching, but because it can reveal numerous valuable pieces of information you can use for future reference – and profits.

The three key things you want to watch for during the running of a horse race are:

Horses that try
Horses who get into enough trouble that it prevents them from winning
Horses who are disadvantaged by the bias of the racing surface

The ability to spot the above three elements in a horse race will give you an edge on the crowd – and in the betting pools – when the affected horses are entered to run again.

Horses That Try

In every horse race approximately 30 percent of the horses actually try to win. Another 20-30 percent of the horses give a half-hearted effort but usually throw in the towel because they simply don’t have the talent. The remaining 40-50 percent of the horses in just about every race run on the planet don’t want to be racing at all.

The latter group would rather be out eating grass in the sunshine; laying in their stall; easting or breeding – anything but racing. You don’t want to bet on these types - yet thousand of uninformed bettors do everyday.

The key to cashing tickets that pay more than they should is to spot horses that are trying to win but who are prevented from doing so by poor jockeys, troubled trips, or a track bias that works against them.

After you have watched enough races you will develop a knack for spotting horses that are trying to win. If you can’t always watch the races, you can use the comments that appear at the end of the Past Performance lines in the Daily Racing Form or program, to gain an understanding of the quality of a horse’s previous efforts. When handicapping a race you should always search the comments for two elements – trouble and effort.

Comments regarding trouble might read: Broke slowly, stumbled break, 6-wide turn, blocked, steadied, checked, or any combination of the aforementioned. Comments regarding a good performance might read: game try, good try, gave best, bid stretch, outside bid, inside try, finished well.

The problem with the trouble comments in the Daily Racing Form and program, or even in the official charts describing the race, is that they don’t always give you the whole story. And many bettors tend to use trouble comments without taking into consideration the career running lines of a horse.

A horse that runs mid-pack five times in a row and then runs another lackluster race while at the same time getting into some trouble, will probably come back to run another dull race. But a horse that has won a few races or that always seems to be in contention based on his running lines, who shows up with a comment like “blocked turn” or “stumbled start, rushed up” might have a great shot to win their next race at decent odds.

The key is to know the difference between horses that might have won if not for experiencing trouble, and horses that probably wouldn’t have won no matter what happened to them in the race. And the only way to truly make this distinction is to watch the actual races.

The final reason you want to look for horses that try is the fact that they can defy numbers.

A horse with a range of Beyer Speed Figures from 80-90, who has been competitive in a number of races, and who also has comments in his Past Performances indicating they have given good efforts in their previous races, can often defeat a horse who has figures in the 85-95 range - but who never tries. - which might be indicated in the Past Performance lines by comments such as: evenly, mild rally, early speed, faded.

The ability to accelerate to win a race, and the fact that a horse actually wants to do that while others in the race don’t, can produce some great payoffs. Comments indicating good previous efforts can often make a horse a contender – even if the horse has slightly lower figures and/or is moving up in class – at overlay odds.

In summary, when looking at the Past Performances for a race, always give extra consideration to a horse who tries and who has also experienced some degree of trouble in its previous race or races. Even better - watch the races live with binoculars and again on the video replays – both regular and head-on versions – looking for horses who are trying to win but who are prevented from doing so. If you find such a horse, make notes on your program and add the horse to your Horses To Watch list.

The next time that horse is entered in a competitive spot – you – and maybe only you – will know the horse should have won its last start and you may find yourself staring at some excellent odds.

In part two of this article we’ll look at one of the key areas of a race you must watch closely in order to spot future profits - the start.