Handicapping the Prep Races

Betting the Kentucky Derby is an art in itself. Angles abound as the nation's best 3-year-old racehorses ship in from all over the country to run over an unfamiliar surface at a distance further than they've ever run before.

But there are historical patterns you can use to your advantage when betting the Kentucky Derby, especially with regards to prep races.

Over the past 20 years, six prep races have produced the Kentucky Derby winner. The Santa Anita Derby has produced 6 Kentucky Derby winners followed by the Blue Grass Stakes (5 winners), Wood Memorial (4), Arkansas Derby (3) Lexington Stakes (1) and Illinois Derby (1).

Interestingly, the Blue Grass Stakes has not produced a Kentucky Derby winner in the last 10 years. Thunder Gulch was the last Kentucky Derby winner to prep in the Blue Grass Stakes, finishing fourth in that race in 1995 before winning the Derby.

Over the past 10 years five prep races have produced the Kentucky Derby winner. The Wood Memorial and Santa Anita Derby have produced three winners each followed by the Arkansas Derby (2 winners), the Lexington Stakes (1) and the Illinois Derby (1).

Also of note is the fact that the Kentucky Derby winner doesn't have to win their final prep. In the last 10 years five Derby winners have finished second in their final prep and one has finished fourth. Only four of the last 10 Derby winners have won their final prep races.

Also of interest is the fact that Thunder Gulch finished fourth in the Blue Grass before winning the 1995 Derby, as did Sea Hero in 1993. Sandwiched between those two was 1994 Derby winner Go For Gin, who finished second in the Wood Memorial.

The point is - you don't have to win your final prep to win the Kentucky Derby, but you probably need to finish fourth or better and top two is best.

Looking at the major preps in order of the number of Kentucky Derby winners produced over the last 20 years and combining them with this year's contenders who finished fourth or better in those races gives us the following list to consider when betting the 2006 Kentucky Derby.

Horses who finished fourth or better in the 2006 Santa Anita Derby in order of finish include: Brother Derek, Point Determined, A.P. Warrior and Sacred Light.

Horses who finished fourth or better in the 2006 Blue Grass Stakes in order of finish include: Sinister Minister, Storm Treasure, Strong Contender and Bluegrass Cat.

Horses who finished fourth or better in the 2006 Wood Memorial in order of finish include: Bob and John, Jazil, Keyed Entry and Scanlon's Song.

Horses who finished fourth or better in the 2006 Arkansas Derby in order of finish include: Lawyer Ron, Steppenwolfer, Private Vow and Simon Pure.

Horses who finished fourth or better in the 2006 Illinois Derby in order of finish include: Sweetnorthernsaint, Mister Triester, Cause to Believe and Lewis Michael.

Horses who finished fourth or better in the 2006 Lexington Stakes in order of finish include: Showing Up, Bear Character, Like Now, Greeley's Legacy.

Could a sleeper slip in and upset the above contenders? Sure, but history is against him.And he'll have to have finished fourth or better in his final Kentucky Derby prep, preferably within 28 days of the Derby.

Not since 1957 has a Kentucky Derby winner finished worse than fourth in his final prep. And not one horse in the last 20 years has won the Kentucky Derby off a layoff of 28 days or more.